Let’s Get Real

A few thoughts on the market, and where I think it's headed.

Let's get real here.  After years and years of a raging bull market - although for most it doesn't feel that way - at some point stocks will suffer a sharp correction.... right?  Stocks crashed in 2008.  Isn't 2016 the next crash launch date?  A great read on this and more puts things into perspective.

Do stocks have to crash again?  It seems inevitable and we know the crash callers continue to call for crashes... thus far with crashingly unspectacular results.

While Gold was rocketing to new highs a few years ago everyone was screaming to buy gold.  You must have gold in your portfolio.  At that precise time, when the smartest thing you could do was buy gold.... the top was in.  Gold has been selling off ever since.

Stocks?  The stock market?  I don't see the screams to buy stocks.  Actually I continue to see people calling for a correction.  The screams to buy stocks, it just isn't there.  And that is why I think this market has a long way to go before we see that big pull back.

But that doesn't mean we won't get pull backs along the way.  It's been a great move higher off the #Cheek lows.   All the #Greebola has come and gone.  Greece is mircaulously still breathing today.  China the crash has been averted!    Booyaa.

I have to be realistic short term as S&P500 futures have run up against resistance and have begun to move lower.  I think this move could put it back at support of two weeks ago.  While we could still see the spike over resistance, a pull back is becoming the more likely scenario short term.

The VIX also is showing support, and absent a crush under, is setting up for at least a short term bounce.  Not usually a bullish event for stocks.


And now to state the obvious $AAPL is down after the bell.  Stock futures are off some .4%.   $MSFT is down after earnings.  $IBM got killed today down over 5%.  The big names this week are not coming through.  This could help keep pressure on the market.  I'm being Captain Obvious here.  It looks a little cloudy for tomorrow.

But in the face of weakness we will still get some names to shine.

A pile of 3D turd, $SSYS had a wonderful day on Tuesday.  Those $31 calls from $.85 yesterday were over $2.00 today.  Bull - bear - Up down, all around, where ever the market spins, it's about capturing a move.

2015 has been a great year for individual names and will remain so despite what the overall market is doing.

See you in the chat room tomorrow morning.

Good night.

Known to most as Uranium Pinto Beans, Jason has more than 15 years under his belt of trading stocks, options and currencies. His expertise primarily lies in chart analysis, and he has a strong eye for undervalued stock. Because he’s got the ability to identify great risk/reward trades he usually enjoys taking the path less traveled and reaping the benefits from the adventure.

He is a co-founder of Option Millionaires, and he is best known for his weekly webinars with Scott, as well as his high level training webinars and charts found in the forums.

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