Stocks closed lower again on Thursday, with the S&P dropping .54%, with most of the losses coming after the noon hour. Asia stocks closed mixed overnight while Europe indexes are solidly in the red with the DAX off over 2% as I write this. U.S. futures have reversed overnight green and are in the red, the Dollar, Yields, and Oil are higher while Gold is lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: Friday Morning Reads
It was another nasty session for stocks as they tried to bounce, only to find afternoon pressure. The Nasdaq is now down 3% on the week and on its longest weekly losing streak since 2012. It is also down 14% on the month so far, which would make it its worst monthly performance since 2008. Would have to think we are near some type of capitulation bounce, but looks like we may have to wait until next week. Stocks tried Monday and Tuesday to bounce but have since given back those gains. If the SPY can't hold the $425 area today I may start looking to add some of those 3X bear ETF calls for a gap down Monday morning.
AAPL looked to almost save the market yesterday after the close with record earnings. There was also some decent inflation data this morning. Could still be signals for short-term bottoms but time will tell...
I added some speculative RIVN puts for next week. RIVN was the largest IPO of 2021 and is certainly a great story. But do think at a $50 bil valuation with negligible revenues it opens the door for more selling in the current environment. Will be quick to close these out flat if the stock finds a squeeze with the rest of the market, but do think a test of the low $40s is possible if we get more selling into next week:
DRV is likely the name I will add some Feb calls on if the market fails to find footing today(and especially on a break under $425 on the SPY). Could see $60+ quick:
Going to be very selective adding longer dated calls on anything for now. CMG, VRTX, KRNT, WYNN, and maybe SPOT are the names I will be watching for bounces.
Can't wait for earnings next week, which should add some plays that may move outside the market swings.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
|Apple upgraded to Neutral from Sell at New Street|
|New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded Apple to Neutral from Sell with a $165 price target after the company reported better than expected Q1 results and guided toward fiscal Q2 results "significantly above" his expectations. While he has abandoned his Sell rating, seeing "no indication that our thesis is playing out," Ferragu would not recommend the stock as he still worries that the exceptional level of demand today results, at some point, in a material pullback|
|MKS Instruments price target lowered to $185 from $215 at Needham|
|Needham analyst James Ricchiuti lowered the firm's price target on MKS Instruments to $185 from $215 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q1 guidance drove a sharp sell-off in the stock after the market close last night, but the decline is "likely overdone", particularly with shares trading at less than 12-times his expected 2023 earnings per share estimate, the analyst tells investors in a research note.|
|Snap price target lowered to $42 from $70 at MKM Partners|
|MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni lowered the firm's price target on Snap to $42 from $70 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Shares have over-corrected and are now trading below pre-COVID valuation levels, though the company is likely to remain in a "guidance penalty box" at least thru Q1 earnings, which also coincides with negative optics easing with progressively easier comps, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Kulkarni further warns that while he does not see any risk to near-term Street estimates, his checks indicate slow uptake of SNAP's IDFA tools|
|Twitter price target lowered to $51 from $77 at MKM Partners|
|MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni lowered the firm's price target on Twitter to $51 from $77 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of its Q4 results. The recent stock price correction has been overdone and he is optimistic on Twitter's long-term prospects, though the near-term risk/reward also isn't "clearly asymmetric", the analyst tells investors in a research note|
|Visa price target raised to $270 from $240 at Wedbush|
|Wedbush analyst Moshe Katri raised the firm's price target on Visa to $270 from $240 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Visa posted better than expected results, and management seems much more upbeat than in prior quarters, predicting travel recovery in CY22, expecting post-pandemic volume growth to be driven by consumer payments, new payments flows, and value added services, Katri tells investors in a research note.|
|Atlassian price target raised to $330 from $325 at Cowen|
|Cowen analyst J. Derrick Wood raised the firm's price target on Atlassian to $330 from $325 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The analyst said guidance continues to leave lots of room for upside but he views 2H deceleration/margin compression as potential overhangs|
|Canopy Growth price target lowered to C$9.60 from C$16.30 at Cantor Fitzgerald|
|Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic lowered the firm's price target on Canopy Growth (CGC) to C$9.60 from C$16.30 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares, citing sectoral derating and reduced estimates. With the stock trading below US$7, Constellation Brands (STZ) could acquire all outstanding Canopy Growth shares it does not own for just over US$2B, Zuanic tells investors in a research note. The analyst expects Canopy's December quarter to disappoint, but would not be surprised if Constellation decides to buy the shares they do not already ow|
And here is what I am watching today: DRV, RIVN, CMG, VRTX, KRNT, WYNN, and SPOT.
Let's have a great day!