Markets are pointing to a rough open, with S&P futures down 1.36% as I write this. Asia markets tumbled nearly 2% overnight while Europe stocks are also getting sold this morning. The US dollar, Yields, Oil, and Gold all lower this morning as well.
And this is what UPB is reading: Monday Morning Reads
Looks like a tough open for markets with concerns over the $2 trillion US spending bill passing and the rise in Covid cases weighing... like DeJaVu all over again. Time will tell if this is 2018 all over again, with Christmas Eve being the bottom, but it has the same feel. So many names are down 50, 60, 70%, and more. The only difference is the megacap name weightings are hiding the carnage. The 50dma is being breached on the SPY this morning. It has been a battleground area that has provided support. If the market can find a bid today or tomorrow, think the beat up names have a shot at a sharp rally to end the year and into 2022: DKNG, MED, TREE, CDLX, JYNT, ROKU, and FVRR. If not, then maybe playing for a flush into the end of the week. Will be looking at some of the stronger names that would finally succumb to pressure(and have lower premiums) like PANW, NOW, GOOGL, TEAM, ZS, and maybe even NFLX.
ROKU to $265:
TREE into the $140s:
JYNT back to $75+
CDLX to $75+
And MED above $235:
I added some FUBO calls late on the day Friday as the stock was holding ground and looks poised to bounce. Over the weeked YoutubeTV announced they were dropping Disney:
Hello $FUBO … https://t.co/0atlqT3ku8
— Option Millionaires (@OMillionaires) December 18, 2021
With the Bowl games starting would think there was a large amount of folks testing out FUBO. Sunday it was announced they had reached a deal. If that did not happen would think FUBO would be $20+ this morning. Instead it is gapping lower with the market. I may actually look at some strikes into 2022. The World Cup is coming and FUBO is still in the early innings on their online gambling system:
That TEAM bear-flag continues to play out. That $310 level may come next if the market fails to find a bid this morning so will be watching this one for potential puts:
And also ZS, which has had some volatile swings the past 2 weeks. A move to $250 and below could be in the cards:
It is a holiday shortened trading week so not going to be too aggressive - not that I have been anyway. Also still working on my Top 5 stocks for 2022 Webinar and hope to have it out before the close next Friday.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Freshpet price target lowered to $130 from $175 at Truist | |
| Truist analyst Bill Chappell lowered the firm's price target on Freshpet to $130 from $175 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's reduced FY21 guidance last week marks another "major disappointment" following its Q3 miss in November, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Chappell adds however that the reduced figures were due to continued supply chain issues not related to consumer demand, and he remains positive on Freshpet as a "unique, wide-moat story that will be rewarding to investors over the next 12 months | |
| Biogen price target lowered to $249 from $261 at Wedbush | |
| Wedbush analyst Laura Chico lowered the firm's price target on Biogen (BIIB) to $249 from $261 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after the company announced several strategic updates, including a 50% price cut for Aduhelm and a workforce reduction expected to generate $500M in annualized savings. The analyst believes the move is "clearly necessary but also indicative of a launch gone awry to date." Chico notes that cost/access represents one major barrier to Aduhelm uptake thus far. However, price cuts in other drug classes like the PCSK9 antibodies did little to accelerate adoption, she adds. For Aduhelm, absent additional, controlled data, the analyst sees debate persisting around the drug's utility. Moreover, with Eli Lilly (LLY) set to complete its donanemab BLA submission in Q1 2022, Biogen's firstmover advantage is unlikely to persist for long | |
| Elastic pullback brings attractive buying opportunity, says Monness Crespi | |
| Shares of Elastic are down 38% from last month's high on a rotation away from high-growth, next-generation software stocks, Monness Crespi analyst Brian White tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes the recent selloff in Elastic "presents yet another buying opportunity in a stock that enjoys a more modest valuation compared to other next-gen software companies." He believes the company will benefit from an improving economy, "strong" secular tailwinds and the accelerated digital transformation. White keeps a Buy rating on the shares with a $230 price target | |
| JPMorgan 'more favorable today' on Gogo than in some time | |
| JPMorgan analyst Philip Cusick keeps a Neutral rating on Gogo with a $16 price target after hosting meetings with management. Business trends are strong, and management looks to return capital to shareholders after the 5G build, either through buybacks or dividends, Cusick tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes "there is a strong tailwind of activity" from the pandemic that has resulted in solid demand for new aircraft and aftermarket into 2022. He likes the "positive commentary" from management and sees potential for the company to exceed its 25% unit growth projection in 2022. With the shares 20% below his $16 target and off 38% from the fall highs, Cusick says "we are more favorable today on Gogo than we have been in some time. | |
| Pinterest price target lowered to $50 from $66 at Loop Capital | |
| Loop Capital analyst Rob Sanderson lowered the firm's price target on Pinterest to $50 from $66 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The stock will remain challenging in the near- term as investors focus on "sluggish" MAU growth and execution risk as the network becomes more creator-driven and video-rich, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Sanderson adds however that MAU growth at Pinterest will normalize in the New Year, and he will look to notifications and marketing to help drive its recovery. | |
| STMicroelectronics initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley | |
| On Friday, Morgan Stanley analyst Dominik Olszewski initiated coverage of the ADRs of STMicroelectronics with an Overweight rating and $50 price target, stating that his views are consistent with those he holds for the underlying stock. STMicroelectronics has "attractive portfolio positioning" for growth areas that include silicon carbide, imaging sensors, and a leading MCU franchise, said Olszewski. He also calls out the company as a "notable beneficiary" of the mid-term trend for Chinese customers to procure increasingly from European, as opposed to U.S., chipmakers | |
| ASML initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley | |
| On Friday, Morgan Stanley analyst Dominik Olszewski initiated coverage of the ADRs of ASML with an Overweight rating and $902 price target, stating that his views are consistent with those he holds for the underlying stock. ASML is the industry leader in EUV lithography technology and he sees adoption as a question of "how much," not "if," given that EUV technology presents a road-map towards shrink to 3nm and the company's tools are necessary for enduring secular growth in high end computing, data centers and smartphones | |
| Block price target lowered to $190 from $250 at Wedbush | |
| Wedbush analyst Moshe Katri lowered the firm's price target on Block to $190 from $250 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares post last Friday's, Wedbush-hosted advisor call. The analyst cites continued indications of choppy consumer spending, renewed pandemic-driven B&M shutdowns/travel slowdown as well as likely reduced spending on non-discretionary items given inflationary pricing pressure on staple goods | |
| MasterCard price target lowered to $380 from $400 at Wedbush | |
| Wedbush analyst Moshe Katri lowered the firm's price target on MasterCard to $380 from $400 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst cites continued indications of choppy consumer spending, renewed pandemic-driven B&M shutdowns/travel slowdown as well as likely reduced spending on non-discretionary items given inflationary pricing pressure on staple goods | |
| Visa price target lowered to $240 from $270 at Wedbush | |
| Wedbush analyst Moshe Katri lowered the firm's price target on Visa to $240 from $270 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst cites continued indications of choppy consumer spending, renewed pandemic-driven B&M shutdowns/travel slowdown as well as likely reduced spending on non-discretionary items given inflationary pricing pressure on staple good | |
| Roku price target lowered to $300 from $410 at Loop Capital | |
| Loop Capital analyst Alan Gould lowered the firm's price target on Roku to $300 from $410 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst attributes his reduced price target to the impact of rising interest rate on hyper-growth companies as he expects the stock to trade closer to its historic average multiple of forward revenue. Gould adds however that he still expects CTV advertising spending to grow faster than almost all other media, and he also views Roku "growing quicker than CTV in general" | |
| FedEx price target raised to $336 from $330 at Credit Suisse | |
| Credit Suisse analyst Allison Landry raised the firm's price target on FedEx to $336 from $330 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst is also updating her estimates on stronger-than-expected Q2 results and revised company guidance | |
And here is what I am watching: Calls: ROKU, DKNG, FUBO, MED, JYNT, TREE, CDL, FVRR. Puts: MA, PANW, NOW, GOOGL, MDB, TEAM, LRCX, ZS, and NFLX.
Let's have a GREAT DAY!
-JB