Stocks had a strong day, putting Mondays meltdown a little further in the rear view mirror. In 2015 fashion, the market closed almost precisely where it opened.
For tomorrow the NFP is coming a little early. It's the only NFP not to be reported on a Friday in 2015.
What do I think?
I think the market is going to do what its been doing all year - and what it did in today's trading session.... come back to where it started. In this case I think the stock market will head back to Friday's closing levels, meaning the NFP will send stocks 1% higher. That would be on the heels of today's .8% gain.
The US is having a holiday on Friday, so the monthly Nonfarm Payroll report will be released on Thursday, July 2nd.
The US economy is expected to have added 231,000 new jobs in June, below the strong reading posted in May of 280K, when the unemployment rate stood at 5.5%, expected to have eased back to 5.4%. Expectations among investors however, may be a bit higher after the release of the US ADP survey this Wednesday, showing the private sector added 237,000 new jobs, above the expected 220K. According to the private report, small businesses added 120,000 jobs, mid-sized ones, 86,000, and large companies, 32,000
Today's session started off strong, got weak in the middle, and saw a strong rally into the close. Progress was made from Mondays swoon, and I think that is important. I also think the market will build upon these gains in a meaningful way the next few weeks.
There are many now looking for continued weakness. They see this as a great sell the rip opportunity. Selling this rip has not worked in this market. When we finally do head south, I'll be selling the rip with vigor. Right here, right now I think we are still in a buy the dip phase.
Perusing the financial blogosphere this morning, I see the tune changing on the Greek Default. On Monday stocks fell 2% as a Greek default was supposed to bring the world economy to a grinding halt. Today I hear about how little anything that happens in Greece will affect our stock market. It's amazing. Little ole Greece doesn't matter any more..... But it goes back to ignoring the noise. That 2% pull back on Monday was a welcome respite, a break, a trip to the rest stop. Every bull market needs to use the bathroom. It's healthy. The fear mongering, however, is not healthy. Yet it offers opportunity for those who can see it. The noise. The scare tactics. The dramatics!
Again... this is merely another case of #GREEBOLA. It's spreading. Case in point, look at marketwatch tonight. EVERY SINGLE HEADLINE IS GREECE!
Greekitwatch.com. Got Fear? Well here's at least 5 doses of it. 10 things your not being told. Oh no. It's nauseating. I'm choking on a Giant Greek Olive and Foaming at the mouth with FETA cheese. When this Greek Drama ends the financial media will be back to asking naked reality stars financial advice..... perhaps I spoke to soon:
Those scouring the stock market for a large bubble were the butt of many jokes the last few years. I'm not quite sure they can put the bubble talk to bed for now.
.... back to your regularly scheduled closing commentary.....
What also has been persistent has been this bull market. One chart describes how stocks have done throughout this Greek Crisis:
Until this chart breaks, it pays to be long, no matter how many Greece headlines populate the financial media.
Stay tuned for some individual names for tomorrows session and beyond.
Finally, while I may love this trend, individual names have been working in 2015 both higher and lower. Case in point $HPQ and $INTC. Two stocks I highlighted at the end of May. Both provided 500% gains trading for downside via puts. I may be a slobbering bull right now, but I'm not dumb enough to go long stocks I think are going to go down. And I'm not dumb enough to fight this historic bull market, no matter what the #Greebola is telling me to do.