Futures are higher to start the day.
The US Dollar is +.71% Higher
Nikkei 225 Futures are up over 3%
LNKD Reports after the bell.
Here is today's morning pre-market video:
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July 31, 2013 Watch List
Two red days to start the week on the SPY, despite a promising open yesterday. Today we find futures flat with ADP numbers out, as we look forward to the Fed meeting and July Jobs numbers on Friday.
Earnings reports continue to steal the headlines. This morning we had SODA report another great quarter with raised guidance which has the stock up 8% pre-market. SODA typically gets faded any good earnings report, so hoping the FAD case that usually emboldens the bears, is a non-issue this time around. MA also reported another great Q and the stock is up 3% pre-market. I figured folks would use earnings as an oppty to lock soe profits before taking her to new all-time highs, but looks like thats not the case.
After hours today we have SAM, and I will try once again to get a position into earnings. Also like SINA again here and did add some $72.50 lotto calls, and may try for some more positions. GOOG finally showed some promise yesterday and would like to see the 900 level breached today as well as AAPL heading over 457.
Here are the analyst changes for today:
| BUD AB InBev upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord :theflyo |
| KORS Michael Kors is a Top Pick into earnings, says Morgan Stanley |
| Morgan Stanley expects Michael Kors Q1 report on August 6 to drive shares higher. The firm expects 48c earnings and 20% same-store-sales growth indicated by strong sell through, strong wholesale channel sales, beatable margin expectations, and increasing Google searches for products. The firm believes Michael Kors offers the best long-term earnings potential and reiterates its Overweight rating and $74 price targe |
| QCOR Questcor price target raised to $73 from $57 at Oppenheimer |
| Oppenheimer increased its target on Questcor after the company reported higher than expected Q2 revenue. The firm believes that sales of the company's Acthar treatment continue to be strong. Oppenheimer remains upbeat on Acthar's outlook and keeps an Outperform rating on the stock |
| MAKO MAKO Surgical price target raised to $26 from $23 at Piper Jaffray |
| Piper Jaffray believes MAKO Surgical's Q2 results bring the company closer to restoring investor confidence. Piper said robot sales topped expectations while procedures were in line. The firm raised its price target for shares to $26 and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock |
| POT Potash downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS |
| UBS downgraded Potash citing industry volume uncertainty following Uralkali's exit from the Balarusian cartel. Price target lowered to $33 from $43 |
| SNDK SanDisk downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital | |
| BMO Capital downgraded SanDisk to reflect a NAND supply-demand balance that is tilted towards excess supply. Price target lowered to $40 from $59 |
| COH Coach price target lowered to $50 from $55 at Buckingham |
| Buckingham expects Neutral rated Coach (COH) to be range-bound given lack of catalysts and increased execution risk. The analyst recommends reducing positions and rotating into Buy rated Michael Kors (KORS) |
Still love SAM for the close today, love OPEN and SFLY tomorrow, and will hold my LNKD calls until near the close tomorrow. Will look to add more SINA today and try again for a position in SAM. I will not pay the ask and put the order in and hope for a fill. Always other trades so be patient!!
| Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
| SAM | CALL | $210.00 | Sept | 1.30 | 0.85 |
| SINA | CALL | $80.00 | Aug | 0.54 | 0.50 |
Lets have a great day!
- JB
July 30th, 2013 Watch List
Futures were red yesterday and the market continued to fade in the morning, following Europe and Japan’s lead. The typical ‘buy the dip’ came later in the day, but was not enough to get a green close. There were some nice movers during the day, with AAPL finally gaining traction and CF getting a boost from a hedge fund taking a stake.
This morning we find futures solidly green as Asia and Europe were up overnight.
We had a few earnings reports the past 12 hours, with HLF stealing the show. DDD reported earnings this morning that missed on EPS but met revenue expectations and reiterated a nice outlook. The stock is down pre-market, along with other 3-d stocks. Think this could be a nice buying oppty down the line so will be watching. COH is down pre-market after meeting EPS but missing revenue as well as announcing a product line sale. Will be staying away from that one for now.
SODA was alerted as one of my favorite trade ideas this week for the weekly 67.50 calls. I bought some @ .50 and still like it today for a break above 60. It is very risky, as SODA reports earnings tomorrow so if you follow my position please exercise caution and understand SODA could open at $50 tomorrow after earnings and the calls will be worthless.
Here are some of the analyst changes for today:
Wunderlich maintains LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) with a Buy and raises the price target from $205.00 to $225.00
| SPWR SunPower price target raised to $33 from $24 at RW Baird |
| Baird raised its price target on SunPower to reflect higher than expected ASP's, strong demand in Japan, and solid demand across all customer classes in the US. Shares are Outperform rated |
| POT MOS - Many investors to sell potash producers, says BMO Capital |
| BMO Capital expects the decision by large Russian potash producer Uralkali to change its strategy to volume-over-price to cause a decline of about $100 per ton in potash prices. The firm thinks that many investors will react by selling shares of potash producers Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), Agrium (AGU), Compass Minerals (CMP), Intrepid Potash (IPI), and Sociedad Quimica (SQM). The firm expects the stocks to decline, and it keeps a Market Perform rating on the fertilizer sector |
| HLF Herbalife price target raised to $72 from $65 at SunTrust |
| SunTrust raised its estimates and price target for Herbalife citing the company's strong Q2 results and upbeat guidance. The firm said it is encouraged by the company's fundamental business strength and keeps a Buy rating on the stock |
| PCLN priceline.com price target raised to $1,034 from $850 at Piper Jaffray |
| Piper Jaffray expects priceline.com to report solid Q2 results on August 8 as its evidence suggests the company continues to gain market share. Piper upped its price target for shares to $1,034 and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock |
| QIHU Qihoo 360 price target raised to $72 from $48 at Maxim |
| Maxim raised its price target for Qihoo 360 citing the company's earnings growth potential and a good chance of success for an acquisition of Sogou. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock |
| OPEN OpenTable downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie |
| Macquarie downgraded OpenTable due to valuation, increased competition, and lack of visibility into a North American seated diner growth. Price target remains $59 |
Will be keeping it small today. I think UPB is right on track with AAPl and a break above $450 today means $500 will be coming soon. Will try for some AAPL calls. Also, like WYNN earnings yesterday and think folks had a night to digest, and will bid the stock up today. One of the analysts likes the update on the Cotai project on the conference call and thinks it adds $50 to the stock price, so will try for some weekly calls to play a run into the high 130s.
| Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
| AAPL | CALL | $470.00 | Weekly | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| WYNN | CALL | $136.00 | Weekly | 0.26 | 0.26 |
As always, stay tuned to twitter and the chat for updates and lets have a great day!
- JB
July 29th, 2013 Watch List
The Market traded in a minuscule 1.4% range the past week. Considering an option trader wants to see some moves, this is not the type of trading action that would be conducive to making profits. But earnings season continues to provide some nice money making opportunities, and hope the trend continues this week.
Tons of earnings on deck this week , you can get a preview and some ideas from these two videos by UPB:
I also spoke about the earnings I like this week and the market in the Week Ahead Webinar last night for those that missed:
https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/469-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JB-7-28-2013
We have the Fed Meeting this week, as well as the July jobs numbers, both items could be market movers. With Big Ben nearing his exit, it would be hard to think he will not try his best to keep markets ramping into uncharted territory, meaning i dont think much will come out of the meetings this week. Folks expect 190k jobs added in July and expect the unemployment number to drop to 7.5% from 7.6%. Again, dont think this will have a major impact on the markets one way or the other if things go as planned, and we can continue on our move over $170 on the SPY.
Not too many analyst changes out to start the week, here are a few that stood out:
BIDU Baidu named a long Research Tactical Idea at Morgan Stanley
| DISH DISH shares may be rising for the wrong reasons, say Brean Capital |
| Brean Capital notes DISH shares have risen on speculation of industry consolidation. The firm does not believe any of the speculative outcomes and notes the CEO is intent on transforming the service profile of the network by constructing a two-way hybrid Satellite-LTE platform resulting in the potential for a better strategic arrangement with T-Mobile. Shares are Buy rated and price target increased to $49 from $45 |
| DTV DirecTV price target raised to $74 from $68 at Brean Capital |
| Brean Capital raised its price target on DirecTV despite the potential to report a weak quarter. the firm believes however the company has the best fundamental return story in the industry citing its benefits from lower capital intensity than the Master System Operator and its aggressive capital return strategy. Shares are Buy rated |
| ONXX Onyx Pharmaceuticals downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird |
| Baird downgraded Onyx based on valuation. Price target is $129 |
| EXPE Expedia downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Lazard Capital |
| Lazard Capital downgraded Expedia citing less confidence in the company's ability to maintain double digit bookings growth following its Q2 results |
| MAKO MAKO Surgical survey showed solid utilization, says Piper Jaffray |
| Piper Jaffray said its survey of 48 existing MAKO Surgical sites indicated solid utilization and satisfaction with the Rio robotic arm surgical system. Piper said it remains a buyer of MAKO shares ahead of the company's Q2 results. The firm has an Overweight rating on the stock with a $23 price target |
ISRG raised its buyback program, with 500 million to be accelerated : http://www.streetinsider.com/Hot+Buybacks/Intuitive+Surgical+%28ISRG%29+Raises+Buyback+Plan+to+%241.5B%2C+%24500M+Accelerated/8539636.html Shares are up pre-market but will watch for $400 break. As talked about in the week ahead, will be looking for entries in SODA, LNKD, and SAM for earnings with the hope of the stocks rallying along with premiums, so I can lock some/all in before earnings.
Here are the strikes I am watching this morning:
| Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
| SODA | CALL | $67.50 | Weekly | .20 x .40 | 0.35 |
| LNKD | CALL | $270.00 | August | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| SAM | CALL | $210.00 | Sept | 1.30 | 0.75 |
Will be watching ISRG, WYNN, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG and others for possible entry as well today.
Lets have another great week!!
- JB
Sector/Segment Check – Where To Find Opportunities Now
On a much needed elaboration of the stock market idiom, "a rising tide lifts all boats," let's talk about how to pinpoint where the best chances for profits are in the overall market. Which sector stocks will be more likely to rise? Will a large cap stock likely outperform a small cap stock? Just keep thinking about that phrase, "a rising tide lifts all boats" as you read the question below.
If you were to invest in a single stock, equipped with no information about that stock but its market segment (shown below), which stock would be more likely to climb?
- Option A: Gold miners
- Option B: Biotech
The answer to this can easily be found in the charts of the groups. Would investing in a single gold mining stock be a profitable strategy right now? It could, but you will find yourself swimming against a tide of bearishness. Here's GDX, the gold miners ETF. Investing in any gold mining stock will likely be akin to trying to catch a falling knife. There could be opportunities, sure, but why take the risk?
Then there are biotech stocks. Take a look at IBB, which tracks the NASDAQ Biotech Index, over the last two years.
So, the rising tide among NASDAQ biotech stocks could certainly lift all boats, including the boat (stock) you are planning on trading. This principle can be applied to long and short term trades. A stock in a clear uptrend is more likely to react positively to earnings announcements while one in a downtrend is more likely to react negatively to an earnings release.
One can also accomplish this type of analysis with relative strength charts. For instance, I know that the S & P 500 is in an uptrend; so is the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index. Which index is doing better? If I invest in a stock in the index that is performing better, my probability of having greater profits is likely higher.
So which index is doing better? In this case, a rising line means that the Russell 2000 is outperforming the S & P 500, and a falling line means that the S & P 500 is outperforming.
Simply put, don't bother buying into a clear downtrend. You may have the skill to catch that falling knife and make a substantial profit a few times, but eventually, most everybody who fights the trend will lose a finger (or their house if over-leveraged!). In short, here is where it appears easiest to find profitable trades for me, based on this methodology.
- Small cap stocks
- Biotech stocks
- Insurance stocks
- Technology stocks, ex large cap
- Financial stocks, especially regional banks
- Healthcare stocks
- Maybe telecom stocks
Try it. You won't believe how much easier it is to make profitable trades. Good luck!