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5-30-2013 Watch List




The market started red and finished red yesterday, as ‘buy the dip’ never came, although the market closed up from it’s lows. Overnight, the Nikkei continued it’s volatility shedding 5%. The rest of the world seems to not care anymore, and Europe is green along with US futures up.

Revised GDP came out for Q1 down .1% and jobless claims rose 10k, a bit more then expected. Futures faded a bit on the data, but are still green.

TSLA was the mover of the day yesterday, hitting just shy of 115, only to sell-off under $100 in a matter of minutes, The stock regained some footing at the end of the day to close at 104.62.

GOLD continued to rally overnight and is now sitting over $1400, an area that has me concerned. Will wait and see if it holds before I start to rethink my bearish thesis.

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:




AXP American Express price target raised to $89 from $73 at Nomura
Nomura believes consensus expense expectations for American Express are too high and that upcoming job cuts will provide a significant source of near-term upside vs. Street estimates. The firm expects shares to continue have strong performance driven by expense cuts, scaling fee-based revenue streams, and strong core business trends. Share are Buy rated



FSLR First Solar upgraded at Goldman
As previously reported, Goldman upgraded First Solar to Buy from Neutral. The firm upgraded shares due to its strong backlog, negative sentiment and valuation, and near-term earnings visibility. Price target is $64


DSW price target raised to $83 from $73 at Susquehanna
Susquehanna raised its price target on DSW following solid Q1 results citing potential for acceleration of comp trends, solid product pipeline, and increased margin opportunity. Shares are Positive rated


SPLS Staples management more upbeat than in recent quarters, says Bernstein
After meeting with Staples' management, Bernstein reports that management appeared to be more positive than in recent quarters. The firm thinks that the company's performance may be improving, although its outlook remains challenging. Bernstein keeps a Market Perform rating on the stock


KORS Michael Kors momentum continues, says RW Baird
Baird raised its price target on Michael Kors to $80 from $78 citing continued momentum supported by growing brand awareness, product line extensions, and enhanced distribution. Shares are Outperform rated


VZ Verizon initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital
Target $55


Ford price target raised to $18 from $15 at MIKEY Capital
RBC Capital increased its price target on Ford after meeting with the company's investor relations team. The firm thinks the company is benefiting from improvements in its European unit and ramping Asia sales, and it keeps an Outperform rating on the stock



Along with the Week Ahead Webinar Sunday night, there will be a Webinar by Chris D : Using Relative Strength & The RSI" - should be fun.


Will be keeping it small today until the market finds its way (up or down). May try to nab some GOOG calls as well as LNKD 175s:



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
GOOG CALL $895.00 Weekly 0.40 0.30
LNKD CALL $175.00 weekly 0.35 0.30




Lets have a great day!!


- JB

5-29-2013 Watch List


And the record breaking year of 2013 continues as the market broke another milestone, closing green for the 20th consecutive Tuesday.. or as UPB said it “Thank God it’s Tuesday!”. The Market gapped up after the long weekend, and busted higher in the morning, but did fade in the afternoon still closing solidly in the green. The two biggest stories of the day were NFLX and TSLA. The much anticipated release of Arrested Development on Sunday, was met with mixed reviews. Considering the original canceled Fox series was a cult hit, and not really a main stream show, makes me wonder why folks are reading too much into the reviews. Here is a great article on some of the data on the launch :


I was expecting a move higher on NFLX Tuesday, and was wrong. Will look for a bounce entry at some point, as long as it hold 209 or so.


TSLA was the other major mover yesterday, breaking above $100 and closing at 110.33!! A monster move. Should be another volatile day as the stock is trading all over the place pre-market on huge volume.


Wrote a follow-up piece on Gold/Silver last night:


Still think the Gold and Silver will take another dive in the next week or two and will be positioned for it. To me, there are many more reasons to sell/short the metals, then buy them. But what do I know...


Futures were red overnight, and accelerated in the morning as Europe markets sold off. They have since recovered a bit, and the Buy the Dip mentality will be tested once again today.


Here are some of the analyst changes:




VRX Valeant price target raised to $124 from $84 at Ladenburg
Ladenburg believes Valeant's acquisition of Bausch & Lomb is a positive on many fronts and adds significant value to shareholders. The firm raised its price target for Valeant shares and keeps a Buy rating on the stock



MCD McDonald's estimates trimmed to consensus levels at UBS
UBS trimmed McDonald's 2013 and 2014 earnings estimates to consensus levels due to increased FX headwinds and lower European sales forecasts. Shares remain Buy rated with a $110 price target


PANW Palo Alto upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest
Price target is $65


NDAQ NASDAQ valuation attractive, says Wells Fargo
After meeting with NASDAQ's CFO, Wells Fargo believes that the stock has several potential positive catalysts. The firm views the shares as a very inexpensive way to play a recovery in the global securities market, and it reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock


PCLN price target raised to $950 from $859 at Lazard Capital
Lazard Capital raised its price target for shares citing increased confidence in the company's bookings growth. The firm sees further upside in the stock and keeps a Buy rating on the name


WYNN Macau stocks should be bought on any pullbacks, says Janney Capital
After attending a conference in Macau and meeting with various industry sources there, Janney Capital reports that almost all of the sources had a bullish outlook on Macau. The firm thinks that Macau's intermediate to long-term outlook could not be much better, and it believes that the stocks as a group remain undervalued. Janney keeps Buy ratings on Melco Crown (MPEL), Wynn (WYNN), and Asia Entertainment (AERL) and Neutral ratings on Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and MGM (MGM)



The strikes I post every morning are ones I am looking at, and not ones I am going to immediately get at the open. Yesterdays watchlist was BIDU, NFLX, and WYNN. I only purchased the BIDU calls. Stay tuned to twitter/chatroom for updates.


Will be looking at WYNN calls again today, as I think the stock is set to break $144.99 finally in the next few sessions.  Also, may try to grab some PCLN calls on Lazard upgrade, as long as it breaks above closing price of $804.


Here are the strikes I am watching:



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WYNN CALL $145.00 Weekly 0.21 0.21
PCLN CALL $840.00 weekly 0.80 0.45



Lets have a great day!


- JB

5-28-2013 Watch List



Futures are up nicely after the long 3-day weekend as folks realize nothing has really changed. I think we continue to move up until at least late July/early August and the SPY nears 177-181 before we can think about a serious correction. And spoke a little about it in the week ahead, If you missed it, it’s up in the forum :



I had an issue with my computer this morning so had to scramble to get watchlist together. Will have it finished before 10.


Here are the strikes I am watching for the open:




Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
BIDU CALL $105.00 Weekly 0.16 0.15
NFLX CALL $250.00 weekly 0.45 0.45
WYNN CALL $145.00 Weekly 0.16 0.15


5-24-2013 Watch List


Yesterday completed the first 2 consecutive down days since mid April on the SPY, although the market did try and recover and close green. Today the futures are red once again, following Europe and Asia’s action. The Nikkei once again proved to be extremely volatile, starting up over 3%, and then tumbled down 4%, and finally closed up .9%.

With the three-day weekend coming, will be interesting to see how today pans out.

Gold and Silver have found a bit of footing, but I continue to think it will be short lived. ISRG had a favorable verdict yesterday, and the stock is up nearly 4% pre-market, will see if the move has any follow through.


Here are the analyst changes for today:



CRM weakness a buying opportunity, says Susquehanna
Susquehanna would use any weakness in as a buying opportunity. The firm cited increased guidance and an evolving business model. shares are Positive rated with a $50 price target



CRM weakness a buying opportunity, says Barrington
Barrington says it views any weakness in shares of following the company's Q1 results as a buying opportunity. The firm believes is a growth company that will deliver plenty of profitability once growth slows and keeps an Outperform rating on the stock


CRM pullback a buying opportunity, says Lazard Capital
Lazard Capital views the post earnings pullback in shares of as a buying opportunity and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock with a $52.50 price target


CRM results solid, says Stifel
After reported higher than expected Q1 revenue and provided roughly in-line guidance, Stifel thinks the results were "solid but not flashy." The firm believes that the company is likely to report stronger results later in the year, and it keeps a Buy rating on the shares


ISRG Intuitive Surgical risk decreased by court decision, says Cantor
After Intuitive Surgical won the first of 26 cases alleging that patients' injuries or deaths were caused by the company's da Vinci robotic surgery product, Cantor thinks the decision indicates that the cases will not greatly damage the company's reputation. The firm reiterates a $575 price target and Buy rating on the stoc


P Pandora price target raised to $24 from $20 at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray raised its estimates and price target for Pandora citing the company's strong Q1 results and improving monetization. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on the stock


CRM downgraded at Wedbush
As previously reported, Wedbush downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. The firm downgraded shares due to the significant decline it Q1 deferred commission expenditures, an indication that new sales activity in the quarter was down substantially. Price target lowered to $42 from $51



May look to get some more OPEN positions today, as well as possibly playing some TSLA calls for a possible $100 break. Folks are asking me about ISRG and my thoughts, think it will be hard to get a good position with the large spreads and high premiums, but stay tuned to chat and twitter for updates.


Here are the strikes I am looking at for the open:



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
TSLA CALL $100.00 Weekly 0.25 0.20
OPEN CALL $80.00 June 0.35 0.30



Dont forget the week ahead Sunday night at 10:30 :


Lets have a great end to the week and EVERYONE HAVE A GREAT Holiday WEEKEND!!


- JB

5-23 Watch List


I said make sure you were buckled up in yesterdays watchlist, but there was no way i saw the market not only hitting new highs at 169.07 on the SPY, but then selling off the rest of the day to close at 165.93. We actually hit 165.17 late in the day, a huge move from the highs as folks digested Big Ben’s testimony as well as the FOMC notes, where some folks are open to talk of ‘tapering’ the purchase program as soon as june. I still think does not happen, but with the market up so much, folks are going to be careful and take some profits, which it looks like is continuing today. As I usually do, I will watch the 50dma of the SPY which is 158.10 as a support area. Not saying we fall all the way back there, but need to have some lines in the sand.

The Nikkei fell over 7% overnight and upwards of 1000 pts. All things considered from where it has began its rally in November, its still up quite a bit. Gold started to rally at about 2am overnight and is up nearly 1.6% as folks start using it as a ‘fear trade’ I still like metals short and will look to add to some of my calls on ZSL and DUST as well as dabble in some more SLV puts.


BIDU teased us at 100 yesterday, only to fall under 94 at some points in the session, With todays lower open, BIDU is opening red and we shall see if it finds any support.


WIll be keeping it small today as I want to see how the market plays out.


Here are some of the analyst changes for today:



DD DuPont downgraded to Sell from Hold at BGC Partners
BGC Partners downgraded DuPont to Sell with a $50 price target. Note the firm downgraded shares to Hold on May 3



XONE ExOne price target raised to $50 from $35 at FBR Capital
FBR Capital raised its price target for ExOne citing its positive stance on the company's long-term opportunity. The firm reiterates an Outperform rating on the stoc


HOT Starwood Hotels upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
BofA/Merrill upgraded Starwood Hotels based on relative valuation, accelerating capital returns, solid fundamentals, and owned hotel sales opportunities. Price target raised to $84 from $70


HPQ Hewlett-Packard guidance looks conservative, says Bernstein
After HP reported lower than expected Q2 revenue but higher than expected EPS, Bernstein thinks the company's EPS guidance looks conservative. The firm expects the company to either improve its business or break itself up. It keeps an Outperform rating on the shares


CMG Chipotle coverage assumed with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
Target $360.


HPQ Hewlett-Packard upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies
Jefferies upgraded Hewlett-Packard to Hold citing solid execution and cost controls following the company's Q2 results. The firm raised its price target for shares to $24 from $18.50


BA Boeing price target raised to $120 from $105 at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank raised its price target for Boeing shares citing increased confidence following the company's positive investor day. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock



Think the GOLD ramp overnight is going to provide one last chance to grab some positions for the move to the downside.



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
GLL CALL $125.00 June 0.65 0.55
GLD PUT $130.00 Weekly 0.62 0.25
SLV PUT $21.00 Weekly 0.19 0.15



Lets have a great day!


- JB