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October 2nd, 2013 Watch List

Abhacken

 

 

 

Futures are solid red this morning with the SPY set to open giving back all of it’s games from Tuesday. The Nikkei sold off over 2% as Abe’s new stimulus measures disappointed the market : http://invezz.com/news/equities/5817-nikkei-225-watch-index-slumps-as-abe-stimulus-plan-disappoints

 

Seems negative talk around the government shutdown has folks a little more concerned today then yesterday, and that has helped pressure equities. With no jobs report this friday, the ADP numbers out today will be seen as more important. They came in at 166k for September vs 180k estimates. Futures slipped a bit more after those numbers so yet to be seen if we have shaken the ‘bad news is good news’ stance the market has been running on for the past few years.

 

A nice read on the growing 3d printer sector: http://techcrunch.com/2013/10/02/gartner-3d-printer-market-forecast/

 

Obviously stocks like DDD, XONE and SSYS will continue to look to benefit. I know most love DDD, but i like SSYS over the long haul.

 

Would hope we find some support around $168 on the SPY and can scrap back some of the red this morning. Looks like high fliers were the place to be yesterday and think today maybe no different after the morning dip. PCLN has the most non-news premarket activity in recent memory and me be setting up for a move to $1100. AMZN also looks great after breaking over $320 again yesterday. Both will be on watch today.

ANGI was beating up after a filing out showing the CTO left. Folks are speculating that it may have a material impact on revenue and earnings, and the bears that have been salivating, destroyed the stock yesterday. 2 more analysts out today defending the company so hopefully that gets things back in the right direction.

 

Here are some of that analysts changes of note:

 

 

ANGI Angie's List shares should be bought on weakness, says Stifel
After Angie's List's stock fell following the departure of its CFO, Stifel thinks that concerns over the departure are overdone. Stifel expects the company to report Q3 results that are at least in-line with expectations and it keeps a Buy rating on the shares

 

VRX Valeant price target raised to $123 from $109 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital raised its price target on Valeant (VRX) as the firm expects the company to benefit from reduced competition and new product licensing opportunities as a result of Merck's (MRK) downsizing plans. The firm reiterates an Outperform rating on Valeant

 

SPLK Splunk price target raised to $75 from $61 at FBR Capital
FBR Capital raised its price target for Splunk to $75 following the company's analyst day and annual user conference. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

 

KO Coca-Cola estimates lowered on yen exposure at JPMorgan
JPMorgan lowered its 2014 earnings estimate for Coca-Cola to $2.20 from $2.27 on expectations the hedged value of the company's yen exposure will be down about 22% next year. The firm expects another round of negative 2014 earnings revisions and keeps a Neutral rating on Coke with a $43 price target

 

ANGI Worries over Angie's List e-commerce outlook overdone, says Oppenheimer
After the departure of Angie's List's CTO caused investors to question the company's ability to ramp up its e-commerce revenue, Oppenheimer reports that its estimates for the company are among the highest on the Street, yet assume no growth in e-commerce in 2014 and beyond. The firm thinks the stock offers the best risk/reward profile among high-growth Internet companies focused on local marketplaces, and reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares

 

TTWO Take-Two 2013 EPS estimate raised at Stifel
Stifel increased its FY14 EPS estimate for Take-Two to $2.80 from $2.43, citing stronger than expected sales of the company's GTA V game. The firm expects the company to benefit significantly from digital sales of the game, and it thinks the visibility of the company's game pipeline should improve going forward. Stifel keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

REGN Regeneron price target raised to $367 from $315 at Brean Capital
Brean Capital raised Buy rated Regeneron's price target to $367 based on positive results from the VIVID/VISTA trials with Eylea for DME. The firm expects Eylea peak sales for DME to exceed peak sales for wet AMD

 

ANGI Angie's List pullback a buying opportunity, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray attributes the recent pullback in shares of Angie's List to concerns around the CTO departure and declining analyst estimates. However, Piper expects Angie's to report in-line September quarter results and says the CTO departure was driven by the company taking steps to better align its platform for the future. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on the stock with a $30 price targe

 

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at for today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
AMZN CALL $330.00 Weekly 0.56 0.40
PCLN CALL $1,075.00 Weekly 0.85 0.40

 

 

Lets have a great day!!

 

- JB

Where Do We Go Tomorrow? 10-1 Recap

pen-and-paper

 

Government shutdown? Looming debt ceiling debate? With all the headlines this morning, one would think it would be an ugly day for U.S. equities. How can the market be up with all these headwinds? Well it was, and it was a strong rally. Some of the strength can be attributed to the  ISM report showing the most growth in 2 1/2 years. Gold was pressured after the report and headed near 2 month lows.
Folks think the shutdown will have a minimal effect on GDP as long as it last for less then a week, and that soothed the recent fears.
The Debt Ceiling seems to be the bigger egg to fry, lets hope our elected officials have a nice spatula and some non-stick pans.

Some huge movers today including: NFLX, YELP, CREE, PCLN, SHLD, SINA, UNXL, DUST, and others.

So where are we headed tomorrow? Well looks like the ADP report will be out for Thursday, but that will only be an appetizer compared to the much anticipated September Jobs report. Maybe it was Big Ben and Obama’s plan all along to have the shutdown to delay these numbers, as it looks like they will not be released pending any quick resolution to the shutdown : http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/09/30/jobs-report-government-shutdown/2897563/

The SPY sure looks poised to retake $170, whether that happens Wednesday or Thursday, I put a 75% chance of it happening.

SPY 10-1

The VIX continues to scream reversal:

VIX 10-1
See you in the morning!

- JB

October 1st, 2013 Watch List

Abhacken

 

It’s here, as crazy as it sounds, we have the first government shutdown in 20 years. As long as this does not drag on for a few weeks, and we have some type of progress on the Debt ceiling in the coming days, I think the market can shake off the doldrums and rally. Asia and Europe markets are in the green and futures are still green but off the highs from early morning.

We have auto sales numbers out today as well as the ISM numbers. It looks like the jobs numbers for September may not come out on friday as well - not sure if thats good or bad.

Will watch the SPY for continued strength above the 50dma, and a possible reversal into the 170s this week. We have been down for 7 of the last 8 trading sessions so despite all the negative headlines, think we can climb higher here.

 

NFLX had a big price upgrade today from MKM partner, not the most prestigious firm, but may bid the stock over $320, their target was raised nearly $90 to $370.

 

 

 

 

REGN Regeneron price target rasied to $345 from $310 at BofA/Merrill
BofA/Merrill raised Regeneron's Eylea revenue expectations in the treatment of diabetic macular edema following the data presentation over the weekend. The firm has increased confidence Eylea will receive a q8w dose in the DME label, giving it an advantage over Roche's Lucentis. Shares are Buy rated

 

NKE & UA JPMorgan upgrades Under Armour, raises Nike target
JPMorgan upgraded Under Armour (UA) to Neutral from Underweight and raised its price target for shares to $77 from $56 after learning department stores are increasing allocation to active-wear. The firm raised its price target for Nike (NKE) shares to $80 from $70 and keeps an Overweight rating on the name, saying the company remains its best-in-class idea

 

CREE Cree recent pullback is a buying opportunity, says Goldman
Goldman views the pullback in CREE as a compelling entry point given leverage to secular growth in LED lighting. The analyst expects Cree to report a solid Q1 driven by top line growth and gross margin recovery. Shares are Buy rated with a $72 price target

 

JCP J.C. Penney price target lowered to $9 from $15 at Oppenheimer
After conducting stress tests, Oppenheimer believes that J.C. Penney is making progress but that trends at the retailer are likely to remain challenged. The firm adds that the stock "has no clear floor," and it reiterates a Perform rating on the shares

 

NFLX Netflix price target raised to $370 from $285 at MKM Partners
MKM Partners raised its price target for Netflix shares to $370 citing more confidence in the size of the company's market opportunity as well as management's ability to execute. MKM expects Netflix to benefit from the shift to Internet-delivered services and keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

NKE Nike upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus
Argus upgraded Nike due to worldwide store growth, price increased, new footwear innovation, market share gains, and foreign exchange impact. Price target raised to $8

 

YELP Yelp price target raised to $80 from $60 at Cowen
Cowen raised Yelp's price target following management meetings that increased confidence in higher advertising growth trajectory. The firm continues to believe Yelp is in the early stages of monetization and offers a compelling product. Shares are Outperform rated

 

MSFT Microsoft estimats lowered at UBS
UBS lowered Microsoft estimates to reflect lower near-term gross margins given increased CAPEX as the company transitions towards cloud services. The firm maintains its Buy rating and lowers its price target to $37 from $40

 

C Citigroup price target raised to $65 from $60 at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse raised Citigroup's price target following a sum-of-the-parts analysis and reiterates its Outperform rating

 

DECK Deckers Outdoor upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord
Canaccord upgraded Deckers to Buy from Hold. The firm upgraded shares following industry checks that suggest improving demand trends and mix. The firm believes the UGG replacement cycle is underway and that UGG Pure benefits are understated. Price target raised to $80 from $55

 

 

 

AMZN chart looks very nice with stock set to retest $320 all time highs, may try for some $325 weekly calls. Also, still love CMG on upgrade yesterday. Jefferies kept at a hold today but raised price target from $400 to $410. I like to see some analysts wrong on the stock as well so a good sign. Here are the strikes I am looking at:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
AMZN CALL $325.00 Weekly 0.46 0.40
CMG CALL $445.00 Weekly 0.50 0.40

 

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

Monday 9-30 Recap and Where we are Headed Tuesday

Abhacken
Futures opened up the week Monday solidly in the red, and were pressured at the open of U.S.  markets as folks seemed uneasy about the impending government shutdown. After the SPY broke quickly under the 50dma of 167.47, equities found some footing and muddled most of the day in the 168.
There were some nice Gainers on the day led by SOHU, CMG and TSLA. ANGI sprinted into the green in the morning, only to fade the rest of the day and close down nearly 6%.

So where are we headed?

One would think this is the short of all shorts, where the sell-off begins. With  our elected leaders failing to come to an agreement, one would think this shutdown and the looming debt ceiling is the catalyst needed for further downside. But we have been down this rode before and this is nothing new. Seems to me that most market participants are taking some caution but realize this maybe a short lived pullback, and are ready to dive in once there is a hint of a resolution.

All one needs to do is check CNBC for some type of Armageddon countdown clock and you are all set. They do it every time to draw in the viewers(sheep)

CNBC-countdownCNBC COUNTDOWN

The SPY closed solidly above the 50DMA of 167.47 despite the early morning madness. Think this bodes well for the start of Q4 and October, and barring any craziness, sets us up for a rebound week to $170 on the SPY.

SPY 9-30

The VIX also crossed above the upper bollie but then closed underneath, another telling sign of a possible reversal coming.

With the SPY closing down 7 of the past 8 days, something has to give. Guess we will find out tomorrow but being a bull, I think we climb this wall and put bears back into their cave for a few weeks.

See you in the morning!
- JB

September 30th, 2013 Watch List

pen-and-paper

 

Looks like the market is set to open the week down once again, with the SPY very close to the 50dma of 167.49. The looming government shutdown and the inability for our elected officials to come to any sort of agreements, has the market on edge. Not only that, we have the debt ceiling coming as well, an issue that needs to be resolved before the middle of October or we will see a larger turn to the downside imho. Right now, I think this is a healthy pullback before the market tests new highs before the year is out.  For now, will look for dip opportunities.

 

If you missed the week ahead last night, here it is for your viewing pleasure: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/601-The-week-ahead-with-upb-and-jb-9-29

 

Also, here is a great morning video from UPB : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/upb-morning-market-outlook/

 

Also, some great read on UNXL by UPB :https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/unxl-shorts-continue-make-foolish-bet/

 

as well as a nice video on ANGI : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/angi-going-higher-next-week-beyond/

 

 

Here are some of the analyst changes of note for today:

 

 

 

 

XLNX Xilinx upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest
Pacific Crest upgraded Xilinx given a favorable China LTE positioning and accelerating trends. Price target is $55

 

DECK Deckers Outdoor UGG has stabilized, stock can work, says Sterne Agee
After meeting with Decker's management, Sterne Agee believes that the company's UGG brand has stabilized, enabling the stock to work. The firm thinks the company's results will likely surpass its guidance if the winter is cold. It keeps a $68 price target and Buy rating on the shares

 

XOM Exxon Mobil has downside risk from refining, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley lowered Exxon Mobil 2014 estimates to reflect lower refining estimates given larger Mid-con refining exposure. The firm's FY14 EPS estimate goes to $7.15 vs. consensus of $8.02 and shares are reiterated as an Underweight

 

CMG Chipotle upgraded at Morgan Stanley
As reported previously, Morgan Stanley upgraded Chipotle to Overweight from Equal Weight. The firm's survey indicates Chipotle scores high in perceived value, which is a good indication of future traffic gains and pricing. Price target is $485

 

 

PNRA Panera Bread downgrade at Morgan Stanley
As previously reported, Morgan Stanley downgraded Panera Bread to Equal Weight from Overweight. The analyst downgraded shares following survey results that suggest consumers have a low value perception and are not pleased with pricing

 

CL Colgate-Palmolive upgraded at Morgan Stanley
As previously reported, Morgan Stanley upgraded Colgate-Palmolive to Overweight from Equal Weight. The analyst upgraded shares based on relative valuation and expectations organic sales growth will be better than expected given a robust innovation pipeline, a rebound in the pet segment, advertising increases, and easing comps. Price target is $68

 

YHOO Yahoo price target raised to $39 from $31 at Citigroup
Citigroup raised its price target for Yahoo shares to $39 citing recent strong user growth and search trends as well as a higher valuation for the company's stake in Alibaba. Citi views the risk/reward for shares as positive and keeps a Buy rating on Yahoo

 

P Pandora price target raised to $30 from $25 at Canaccord
Canaccord raised Buy rated Pandora's price target following September ad load survey results that indicate upside to Q3. The firm said Q3 is tracking well despite a slightly lower August ad load and local mix. The firm's Q3 mobile ad RPM estimate is $35

 

LL Lumber Liquidators does not believe it violated law, says Jefferies
After speaking with management, Jefferies says Lumber Liquidators does not believe it violated any Lacey Act infractions. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on the stock with a $119 price target

 

LNKD LinkedIn price target raised to $285 from $260 at Macquarie
Macquarie raised Linkedin estimates based on checks and advertiser discussions that were incrementally more positive on customer adoption of the new Sponsored Updates newsfeed based ad product. Shares are Outperform rated

 

 

 

Will be looking to add to my ANGI calls as well as possibly trying to play the move on CMG at the open on the MS upgrade:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
ANGI CALL $27.50 Oct 0.25 0.20
CMG CALL $435.00 Oct 0.50 0.40

 

 

Will be interesting to see if the SPY closes above the 50dma today. If not, we could see a continued slide. Market has been down 6 of the past 7 days, today would make it 7 of 8. That is quite a reversal after the streak to the upside to end august and start September.

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB