General Options Blog

What’s Another $2 Trillion?

This weekend's G20 meeting in Mexico has ended and the the rhetoric is 100% positive. Apparently things are much better than the Cannes meeting. How is that possible? It is when you can throw more freshly fabricated money at the problem. Who needs growth, jobs, a budget, when you can magically create fake.... scratch that, real money out of thin air (Rumor has it Gandalf the Grey is a key adviser to the ECB). After this weekends meeting they need only $2 trillion to get the can kicked further down the road. $2 trillion seems rather paltry these days, especially when its backed by nothing but false promises. Where is that bazooka resolution, why not make it $10 trillion?   After all it's only monopoly money.   Who needs a gold standard when you can have currencies backed by lies instead. Isn't anyone scratching their heads at this point and saying "When and how do they plan on withdrawing this mind boggling stimulus? At what point do they realize what they've been doing the last 4 years has set us back 20?"

Following are excerpts from the final communiqué at the meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers in Mexico City on Sunday.

 

The full text is available at www.g20.org/

ON THE EURO ZONE FIREWALL:

"G20 members have been actively engaged in taking the steps needed to safeguard the global financial system and to avoid adverse scenarios. At Cannes, our leaders asked us to review the adequacy of IMF resources. This review is particularly important against the backdrop of continued downside risks. Euro area countries will reassess the strength of their support facilities in March. This will provide an essential input in our ongoing considerations to mobilize resources to the IMF."

ON MORE FUNDS FOR THE IMF:

"We are reviewing options, as requested by leaders, to ensure resources for the IMF could be mobilized in a timely manner. We reaffirmed our commitment that the IMF should remain a quota-based institution and agreed that a feasible way to increase IMF resources in the short-run is through bilateral borrowing and note purchase agreements with a broad range of IMF members. These resources will be available for the whole membership of the IMF, and not earmarked for any particular region. Adequate risk mitigation features and conditionality would apply, as approved by the IMF Board. Progress on this strategy will be reviewed at the next ministerial meeting in April. Other options mentioned by leaders in Cannes such as SDRs are under review."

ON WORLD ECONOMY

"Substantial policy actions have taken place since our last meeting, and recent economic developments point to the continuation of a modest global recovery and an easing in global financial market stress. We welcome the important progress made by Europe in recent months to strengthen their fiscal positions, adopt measures to reduce financial stress, build stronger institutions, implement growth enhancing structural reforms and to put Greece on a sustainable path."

"We also welcome the market improvement associated with the actions undertaken by the ECB. Nevertheless, growth expectations for 2012 are moderate and downside risks continue to be high. The international economic environment has continued to be characterized by an uneven performance, with weak growth in advanced economies and a stronger, albeit slowing, expansion in emerging markets."

"Structural problems, insufficient global rebalancing, a persistent development gap and high levels of public and private indebtedness and uncertainty continue weighing on medium-term global growth prospects. While volatility in international financial markets has declined, it generally remains high and we are committed to further reduce downside risks. We are alert to the risks of higher oil prices and welcome the commitment by producing countries to continue to ensure adequate supply. With unemployment still too high in many countries, we are firmly committed to supporting growth and job creation."

ON IMF REFORM

"We will continue working towards the reform of the quota and governance of the IMF, in line with the commitments made in Seoul and Cannes. To this end, the G-20 members reaffirmed their commitment to implement in full the 2010 Governance and Quota Reform by the agreed date of the 2012 IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting, and to a comprehensive review of the quota formula to better reflect economic weights by January 2013 and the completion of the next general review of quotas by January 2014. Also, the G-20 will contribute to the ongoing process to strengthen the surveillance framework of the IMF, providing its input into considering proposals for a new surveillance decision that includes more effective integration of bilateral and multilateral surveillance."

Obama The Stock Expert?

On March 4th 2009 President Obama said stocks were a good buy. Over 6,000 DJIA points later he's looking like quite the genius. What did he know at that time that the rest of us didn't. I remember those days. Banks were going to be nationalized. Jobs were being lost by the hundreds out thousands. The world as we know it was about to change, and than magically we hit 666 on the S&P and everything changes. What really did change? And what did Obama know to make such a bold statement?

Here we sit almost 3 years later, with stocks seemingly telling a much brighter picture than what you and I almost certainly know. We haven't recovered quite like the stock market has. Government assistance is at record highs. Food stamps are at record highs. Food prices are higher yet wages are flat or lower for the few who actually have a full-time job. You hear the word recovery still, as if we are still in a recovery, but judging by the stock market we've recovered already.... right? Stocks keep going up, as if growth is picking up, jobs are robust, and the housing market is seeing growth. It all really defies logic, but when you step back and see all the central bank intervention, its really becomes a lot clearer.

On March 4th 2009 when Obama said to buy stocks, he surely must have known what lied ahead. He most certainly knew that Bernacke was ready to paper over all the troubles in the U.S. That Bernanke will re-inflate asset prices at all costs, namely the costs for future generations. While any type of recovery we've seen, this chart surely is not representative of that recovery:

It truly has been a miraculous rally from DJIA 6,800 to DOW 13,000 in less than 3 years. Had anyone listened to Obama back on March 4th 2009 they would be sitting on some very impressive gains. CAT is up from $23 to $116. AAPL from $90 to $522. WFC from $8 to $28. BIDU from $10 to $134. The list goes on. Every time I walk into a Chipotle Mexican Grill I wonder if the person making my burrito is doing it just to keep busy because they don't need the money. CMG stock is up over 600% from 2009. The FED has done a great job inflating another bubble and with each tick higher for stocks Obama looks better and better. People see a higher stock market and they think all is well, which should get Obama another term. I don't think a 100% stock market move is coming this time around for Obama. But you never know. He is quite the stock market expert.

AMZN Trading at Support

With every Central Bank East of Mars and West of Venus printing fresh, free,fiat currency.... with zero interest rate policy here from now until the bitter end, every growth stock (cue in CRM theme song) should see money pouring into it. P/E 1,000? 2,000? Who needs a PE when you've got QE! Which takes me to AMZN. AMZN bounced off support today and looks ripe for a run to the low $190's.

For the risk takers out there tomorrow's $180 calls are at $.60. For the risk adverse -- the March 2nd $185 calls are going for $1.02.

HPQ Earnings Trade

Yesterday in the chat room I gave a nice earnings trade. I said I was buying the $28 HPQ puts and the $30 calls for earnings. It ended up being a profitable trade. My thought process involved HPQ's prior earnings and the fact that I think HPQ is still not on firm footing. Most people see Hewlett Packard and think Desktop computers. Guess what? Desktops are dying. How about HPQ's foray into tablet computing? Do you know what DOA stands for? I do have an HP touchpad, so it wasn't necessarily DOA, but they killed it right away... all things considered it was an awful move for the company. Which brings me to my HPQ earnings play.

I bought both puts and calls as I saw a 5% or better move coming. The stock ended up sliding more than 6.5%.

I bought 7 of each of the $28 puts and $30 calls.

Total cost for both HPQ calls and puts $532 + commission $550

Sold at $770 + commis $755 for $205 profit

HPQ $28 puts from $.36 to $1.10
HPQ $30 calls from $.40 to $.00

If HPQ had traded steady I would have lost out on both trades for an almost total loss. There is risk with options, but if you know what your doing, that risk can be limited. I had a strong feeling a big move was coming in either direction and I profited from that big move.

SodaStream International (SODA)

We wrote about SodaStream International last week, and it's quite easy to figure out where we think this stock is going. Thinking is one thing, but actually going? Well thats where Option Traders make their money. Sometimes folks relate the stock market to a casino, where folks place bets in the hopes of getting some return on their investment.

And just like a craps table, you are able to see bets placed on stocks. Are they going up? Check the open interest on the calls. Are they going down? Check the open interest on the puts. Now there are other factors that can have an impact on open interest, like folks buying some calls to hedge their short position, and vice versa. But odds are, if the open interest in the calls far exceed the open interest in the puts, folks are betting on a stock going higher.

And there is no better measurement then the current months options.

Look below to see the March Calls/Puts for SodaStream International(SODA). I am not a brain surgeon nor a rocket scientist, but i do think the rocket scientist may agree on where folks are betting SodaStream International(SODA) moves in the next few weeks.

And i don't want to flatter myself or the site in saying we brought folks into the call side.