All posts by jimmybob

Buy… Buy… Or get the f&ck out of the way….

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Everyone on WallStreet has been fore-telling the grand "Santa Clause" rally. The one that will ensure huge bonuses and after work lapdances. That rally seemed to be in jeopardy  to start the week, as the market battled with the 1200 mark on the S&P. But three days later, the S&P has surged more then 4% from its Monday lows, and now sits above the 200 day moving average. A great sign for those looking for a continued move higher over the next few days.

Why?

Well, one could argue that the data coming out for the US economy continues to be somewhat promising. I actually think it doesn't mean anything. Folks will continue to shrug off the numbers and push the tape higher. It will only provide a better opportunity to go short sometime in 2012. For now, follow the big boys and look at some of the plays that have been beaten down on the Europe worries as well as those looking to break into new all-time high levels.

Plays I like into next week are Visa(V), Mastercard(MA), Priceline(PCLN), Caterpiller(CAT), Google(GOOG),Amazon(AMZN), and NKE(Nike).

 

 

Amazon (AMZN) ready to go on “Fire”

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Amazon(AMZN) closed at $181.26 on friday, down $65 from its October high of $246. What gives? Amazon recently released its updated Kindle device, the "Kindle Fire". Priced at an incredible $199, there are worries that the "Fire" will erode Amazon's already tight margins. There have also been some negative reviews on the device, as well as some complaints about a laggy touchscreen and buggy operating system.

With an estimated 6 million units to be sold in the 4th quarter, it is hard to think this can be anything but a good thing for Amazon irregardless of the issues. When you spend $199 to get a tablet, you need to lower your expectations. And if Amazon can get this device into enough hands, it can only help the companies margins down the line.

How?

Well think back to Apple and Itunes. Why did Itunes become the #1 digital download site for music? Not because it was the favorite site for music lovers, but because they were forced to register and use Itunes to manage their library. Over time, they became accustomed to using Itunes to buy their music as well. Why? Because people are lazy. No need to go to another download site, pay to get the music, then get it back into Itunes so you can put it on your Ipod.

If your a frequent Amazon customer, you will realize the focus they are putting on content. If it's not amazon app store, where they are offering a free app download a day, It's amazon prime, where they are talking up their video streaming.

Bottom line, is I think we will look back at the "Kindle Fire" launch, as a catalyst for Amazon's becoming a top destination for all digital content related items. And when it does, the chatter will not be Amazons low margins anymore.

Looking at the chart, AMZN (Amazon.com) looks ready to retest 200 day moving average at $200.99. Will also be looking for it to retest its highs into earnings in late January.

 

 

 

Jim Cramer upgrades PCLN (Priceline.com) to Sell. Sell?

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You have to love the antics of Jim Cramer. I give credit to the guy, he is entertaining at times. But I guess you have to be when your on National T.V giving out stock advice... the type of advice that has lost hard working blue-collar folks lots of money. Heck, Cramers remarks about Bear Stearns right before the collapse, will go down in infamy. (Watch it here:)

Over time, you learn to tune out the noise, and focus on the trade. So why talk about Jim Cramer today? Well because he created his "Pigs get slaughtered" list. (Here for the article) . The uber bullish Cramer, who has helped pump the "High Flying Stocks" of the past two years, is now saying stay away.

His little baby CRM is on the list, as well as LULU, GMCR, PCLN, FOSL. "Well golly gee willikers Jim, You sure nailed those!". Why didn't you say stay away PCLN at $550?? Oh thats right, because you said PCLN would continue to move higher if it beat on earnings:

Priceline.com (PCLN): This online travel deal company reports their 3rd quarter Monday after the markets close. Cramer thinks this is one of the few high-flyers that haven’t been crimped. In order for the stock to continue flying high, Cramer said the market needs to see $1.42 billion in revenue along with proof that Europeans are still flying.

LULU, FOSL, and GMCR also off 25%+ from their recent highs. Come on Cramer? PCLN is off $100 in under 30 days, and NOW you say something!?! 

What a joke. Its obvious there are other factors involved in PCLN's recent sell-off, including funds reducing their risk in equities. But PCLN remains the behemoth of growth stocks, this sell off non-withstanding.

I would compare the Dec 14th warning from Jim Cramer to stay away from PCLN, to a mom telling the child to keep their hands out of the cookie jar. It doesn't really do anything more then remind us the cookies are there... and we all like a good cookie.

PCLN looks to be setting up nicely for a reversal, with some above average volume today. It tested the lower bollie again, but looks ready to break to the $480-$490 level in the next few days.

PCLN 12-15

Dont worry Jim, I know you are nervous about leading your sheep into the slaughterhouse once again. But the sheep are smarter this go around. Are you??

Check the chat and forum for more trading ideas.

 

 

PCLN (Priceline.com) : Book your profits here?

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Priceline (PCLN) is one of the few remaining "momentum stocks" that hasn't succumb to it's lofty expectations. The last few months have seen many of the high fliers, come crashing down to reality. Stockw like: NFLX, TZOO, OPEN, SINA have all been a victim of their own success. Driven to insane heights, only to come down just as hard on some fundamental or news worthy item that the street didn't like.

Priceline has avoided that fate, for the time being. The company has actually reported earnings that have demolished expectations, and almost doubled its EPS year over year for it's last Quarter.

With most analysts price targets at $610 and above, one would think PCLN would have lifted off post earnings and hit all-time highs. The lift-off did happen post earnings, for a day. Then the sell-off began. PCLN topped out at a little over $550, and a close to a month later, sits at $445.It also bounced off it's lower bollie band today.

PCLN

 

Retail traders are not responsible for the sell-off, and looks more like hedge funds or institutional investors, taking some of their position off the table. Goldman Sacks also put the put the internet sector on it's buy list today sans Yahoo.

Normally that would be enough to prevent the 4% haircut in PCLN shares today, but Goldman Sacks has lost their luster.

We do like PCLN here for some action on the calls side. Catching options on the right side of the trade in a stock trading in the hundred dollar level, can equal huge gains.

Make sure you sign up for our mailing list or be in the chat room for strike price and dates.

 

 

 

FSLR – First Solar under $40 on lower guidance

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First Solar issued lower guidance for FY '12 this morning and the market responded,  giving the stock a 20% mohawk and taken to the proverbial WOODSHED.

We have been all over the demise of the solar sector, and todays news is only the tip of the iceberg : (LINK)

 

Quite honestly, last weeks asset sale should have been a clear signal to get the heck out of the stock if you were long, and go short/puts.:
As of today, Sunpower (SPWR) and First Solar(FSLR) remain the last two solar companies trading above the dreaded $5 level. It will only be a few more months before our bold prediction comes to fruition : (LINK)

Its trades like this that can make your year , and ensure your days are spent trading stocks and not flipping burgers.