Three down days in a row and you have folks starting to panic and call for a long overdue correction. This is the first 3-day slide since September, and yesterday's drop in the Dow was the largest since early November. With the better economic data as of late, folks are starting to place bets on a taper announcement at the next FOMC meeting in 2 weeks. Of course you know where I stand, and I think any pullback will be short-lived, but you do need to be open to the SPY touching the 50dma at $174.63. Actually, that wouldn't be a bad thing.

Today's ADP numbers sure look to start supporting some type of move, but only time will tell. ADP showed 215k jobs added in November against 178k estimates as well as some upward revisions for October. Folks usually use the ADP numbers to gauge the jobs number, which is due out this coming Friday for November. The U.S. dollar is spiking on the news, and futures have erased some of their losses.

Eddie Lampert and his ESL fund reduced its stake in SHLD to 46%, which isn't the best news. It almost looks like folks knew it was coming, what with the multi-day pullback. I still have Dec 85 calls, however, and will wait for the dust to settle.

Inflation concerns, or the lack therefore, continue to be an issue. This was from the Wall Street Journal this morning:

The annual rate of inflation across the world's largest economies fell for a third straight month in October. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said the annual rate of inflation in its 34 developed-country members fell to 1.3% from 1.5% in September, while in the Group of 20 leading industrial and developing nations it slipped to 2.8% from 2.9%.

Just something to keep in mind over the next few months. Also, tons of analyst changes for today, to include 3 of DECK:

JCP J.C. Penney sales update completes near-term catalysts, says JPMorgan

JPMorgan believes J.C. Penney's November sales update last night completes the trio of catalysts it expected when calling for a near-term rally in the stock on November 4. The firm says the retailer's "turnaround road remains steep" from here and keeps a Neutral rating on the stock

MU Micron contract reset with Apple a near-term positive, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray notes that when Micron's (MU) Elpida signed a long term mobile DRAM supply agreement with Apple (AAPL) two years ago, the company limited its ability to sell mobile DRAM in the open market. Piper views the contract reset beginning in Jan 2014 as a near-term positive for Micron and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock with a $31 price target

DECK Deckers Outdoor price target raised to $96 from $86 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray raised its price target for Deckers Outdoor shares to $96 following the company's UGG's Fall 2014 product review. Piper expects the UGG brand to evolve into a global lifestyle brand and says Deckers remains its top mid-cap pick for 2013

WHR Whirlpool initiated with a Buy at MKM Partners

Target $183

DDD 3D Systems price target raised to $76 from $65 at Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse raised 3D Systems' price target to $76 from $65 to reflect new product roll-outs and said it remains its top pick in the 3D printer sector. Share are Outperform rated

PVH PVH Corp. remains a top idea at Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse said PVH remains a top idea given 2014 earnings potential. The firm expects 2014 earnings to benefit from Calvin Klein Jeanswear product repositioning, Tommy Hilfiger growth, Warnaco restructuring, and refocus on the heritage business. Shares are Outperform rated with a $147 price target, up from $139

DECK Deckers Outdoor tone 'very positive' at product meeting, says Jefferies

Jefferies says Deckers Outdoor management had a "very positive" tone at the company's UGG product preview meeting last night. Jefferies thinks next year's product offering "looks great" and says the stock remains its top pick. The firm still views Deckers' story as a "no-brainer" and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock with a $100 price target

POT Potash initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital

Target $35

ANF Abercrombie & Fitch activism a catalyst for shares, says FBR Capital

FBR Capital believes shareholder activism should continue to be a catalyst for Abercrombie & Fitch shares after Engaged Capital sent a letter to the retailer seeking a change in management with the upcoming contract expiration of CEO Michael Jeffries. FBR thinks activism activity will push for a sale after management changes and keeps an Outperform rating on A&F with a $43 price target

DDD 3D Systems price target raised to $86 from $77 at Brean Capital

Brean Capital raised its price target on 3D Systems citing the fundamental backdrop including an acceleration of organic growth, higher margin materials revenue, and a high short interest. Shares are Buy rated

I'll look to get into SSY $140s as well as adding some GLD puts for next week:

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
SSYS	CALL	$140.00	December	0.65	0.50
GLD	PUT	$113.00	Next Week	0.36	0.36

If you missed it, here are my thoughts on Bitcoin: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/option-traders-take-bitcoin/

Let's have a great day!

- JB

It was a red start to the month as the morning ‘buy the dip’ turned into an afternoon of ‘sell the rip.' Futures are also red this morning, with the SPY under $180. Folks continue to try and explain what's moving the market up and down. For example, consider this morning's headline from Marketwatch: “More Taper Fears As Dow Set To Open Below 16,000” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-set-to-open-below-16000-on-taper-fears-2013-12-03?dist=beforebell

The above-linked headline explains a lot to me. If the market was up yesterday and futures were green this morning the headline would be the same. Marketwatch would just replace ‘more’ with ‘less’ and ‘below’ with ‘above,' basically.

Also, we do have an FOMC meeting Dec 17th and 18th followed by a press conference. If the Fed were to taper, it would be done during a meeting with a conference scheduled.

Gold also broke under $1230 with a gusto yesterday and you have UBS out today cutting its gold forecast to $1200 for 2014. Talk about being ahead of the curve! I still like gold to break under $1200 and then test the $1180 mark. And I of course wished it had happened last week, but I do have some GLD puts and DUST calls to take advantage of today's continued downside.

In other news, TSLA was made a top pick over at Morgan Stanley this morning. Combine that with positive comments in Germany as regards the fire concerns (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/02/us-autos-tesla-fires-idUSBRE9B10YQ20131202) and you have a stock that's up nearly $8 pre-market.

The crazy correlation between the Musk stocks should help out SCTY.

DDD and SSYS were started at "outperform" at FBR capital, and I may look to add to my calls.

The big news this week will be the November jobs numbers due out this coming Friday.

Here are the analyst changes of note for today:

FRX Forest Labs price target raised to $79 from $56 at Cantor

Cantor increased its price target on Forest after the company announced $500M in cost cutting, $400M in share buybacks, and the acquisition of Merck's (MRK) Saphris, a small anti-psychotic product. The firm expects the company to generate above-consensus revenue beginning in FY16, and it keeps a Buy rating on the shares

CMG Chipotle price target raised to $603 from $524 at Sterne Agee

Sterne Agee increased its price target on Chipotle as the firm, after speaking with the company's management, believes that the company's same-store sales and traffic will continue to beat the industry average. Sterne Agee identifies Chipotle as one of its favorite names in the space and keeps a Buy rating on the shares

TWX Time Warner risk/reward positive, says Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo believes that the spin-off of Time Inc. from Time Warner is not yet priced into Time Warner's stock. The firm thinks Time Warner will benefit from higher than expected cost controls and affiliate fee growth. Wells believes that its $73-$75 price target for the stock is conservative, and it keeps an Outperform rating on the shares

TSLA Tesla named a Top Pick at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley named Tesla a Top Pick following the pullback in shares. The firm believes Tesla offers the best risk/reward in U.S. autos with exceptional top-line growth. Shares are Overweight with a $153 price target

SSYS Stratasys initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital

Target $155

DDD 3D Systems initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital

Target $85

YUM Yum! Brands shares defended at Stifel

After Yum's November China same-store sales narrowly beat expectations but sales were much better during a KFC promo in the first ten days of the month, Stifel is pleased that Yum! reiterated its China 2014 EPS growth guidance of 40%. The firm continues to believe that Yum's valuation is compelling, and continues to anticipate that the company's Q4 and 2014 EPS will beat expectations. The firm keeps a $95 price target and Buy rating on the shares

PCYC Pharmacyclics could beat 2014-2015 consensus estimates, says RBC Capital

RBC Capital expects the launch of Pharmacyclics' Imbruvica to exceed expectations, and the firm raised its price target on the shares to $150 from $125. It keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

TGT Target Q4 on track with one month complete, says Piper Jaffray

One month into the quarter, Piper Jaffray believes Target is tracking to least in-line, but more likely ahead, of the flat same-store sales guidance it issued for Q4. Piper says it remains positive on the stock with an Overweight rating and $73 price target

AAPL Apple upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

UBS upgraded Apple to reflect favorable risk/reward from upcoming China Mobile support, stabilizing iPad margins, new product innovations on the horizon, SMAC technology benefits, and expectations for increased institutional money flow in 2014. Price target raised to $650 from $540

I'll be looking to add to my SSYS position as well as adding some more GLD puts:

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
SSYS	CALL	$140.00	December	0.40	0.40
GLD	PUT	$114.00	Weekly	0.30	0.28

Let's have a great day!

- JB

We start off December with an 8-week green streak on the S&P 500, the longest such streak in 10 years. Futures are somewhat flat and the chatter this morning seems to be revolving around sales and traffic over the weekend, as well as Cyber Monday and the AMZN 30-minute delivery chopper. The latter seems to be gaining some attention and discussion on social media and an upgrade this morning on the stock by Goldman has it nearing the $400 mark. Every day, week, and month since the $100 price point folks have questioned the run, citing zero profits etc. What will they say at $450? Maybe we'll find out sooner rather then later.

I had issues putting together my Week Ahead webinar, but UPB did a nice pre-market video here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/upb-morning-market-video-7/

Also, gold is showing weakness again this morning and I'll watch for the $1230 break, as I think a fall below that mark will send it to $1180 in short order. Bitcoin broke above $1200 last week but has faded down to the $1k level. Expect it to trade in a wide volatile range for quite some time. Bitcoin is pretty much the definition of speculation and it's going to be very hard to put a value on it until it's adopted by greater numbers and also widely accepted. More on Bitcoin later today.

Tons of analyst changes today and here are some of note:

BAC Twitter initiated with an Underperform at BofA/Merrill

As previously reported, BofA/Merrill initiated Twitter with an Underperform and $36 price target. The firm is constructive on Twitter's long-term fundamentals but views valuation as unattractive and said shares discount 1B users and a $22 ARPU by 2028, up from $3 today.

AAPL Apple had 'great' Black Friday weekend, says Jefferies

Jefferies said its channel checks indicated Apple had a "great" Black Friday weekend. The firm believes the iPad Air and iPhone 5S are tracking better than previous launches and that Apple's December quarter is tracking at the high end of guidance. Jefferies reiterates a Buy rating on the Apple with a $600 price target

AAPL Apple price target raised to $625 from $575 at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank raised its price target for Apple shares to $625 after its Black Friday channel checks brought increased confidence in its near-term estimates. The firm believes its December quarter estimates could prove conservative if Apple sustains its current momentum through the end of the year

JPM JPMorgan reiterates Overweight on Facebook after pullback

JPMorgan attributes the recent weakness in shares of Facebook to concerns around slowing ad load increases and teen engagement along with the broader sell-off of outperformers. The firm says Facebook is slowing ad load increases to optimize the user experience, which it views as right move for the long-term. Further, JPMorgan thinks the decrease in daily usage is limited to a small portion of younger teens. The firm reiterates an Overweigh rating on shares of Facebook with a $62 price target

VMW VMware initiated with an Overweight at Atlantic Equities

Target $105

DECK Deckers Outdoor price target raised to $86 from $80 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray raised its price target for Deckers Outdoor to $86 after its Black Friday channel checks indicated strong demand for the UGG brand. Piper says Decekers remains its top mid-cap pick for 2013 and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock

AMZN Amazon.com price target raised to $450 from $400 at Goldman

Goldman said Amazon.com is the biggest beneficiary of accelerating eCommerce growth and is well positioned to take share in new verticals and geographies. Shares are Buy rated

MNST Monster Beverage upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

JPMorgan upgraded Monster Beverage on expectations the company's earnings growth will accelerate in 2013. The firm raised its price target for shares to $74 from $70

I love the TRIP chart and will look to add to my DEC 100 calls, as I think the stock ramps into the 90’s in short order. There was a follow-up piece on SCTY this weekend in Barron's and the stock is down a bit pre-market. I think the momentum continues after breaking above $50 last week and I'll be trying for a couple calls.

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
TRIP	CALL	$100.00	December	0.40	0.35
SCTY	CALL	$56.40	Weekly	0.60	0.45

Let's have a great start to December!

- JB

Futures are in the green the day after the Thanksgiving holiday as the market looks to pad its gains and head towards eight straight weeks of upside action. It also looks like the news this morning is not so much about brick and mortar retail stores but about online, as AMZN and EBAY stole the show with what looks to be huge year-over-year (YoY) increases:

* -Channel Advisor Reports Amazon's Thanksgiving Sales +49% YoY, EBAY's Thanksgiving Sales +20% YoY

Much of the news about Black Friday and retail stores was mostly negative, as it revolved around brawls and fights:  http://blogs.marketwatch.com/behindthestorefront/2013/11/29/black-friday-shopping-so-far-utahns-fight-over-ipads-brawl-in-rialto/ , mostly in Walmart and Kmart.

After this weekend the market will focus on “Cyber Monday,” which will surely exceed last year's numbers.

Gold has found a bid this morning and just like Tuesday/Wednesday, it's opening above $1250. It'll be interesting to see if it can finally hold that line. I'm still holding GLD puts and DUST calls, so I'll be hoping for a big move before 1PM EST.

Overally, it's a very quiet day on the analyst front, with no changes of note.

I'll also be keeping it small this day and may look to try some lottos on AAPL and GOOG calls. I still have AMZN 390s and NFLX 370/375s and will look to close those at some point today.

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
AAPL	CALL	$555.00	Weekly	0.30	0.20
GOOG	CALL	$1,070.00	Weekly	0.65	0.40

Have a great weekend!!

- JB