All posts by jimmybob

10-10 Watchlist

We had AA and YUM earnings last night, with both beating estimates and YUM raising it's outlook. AA did reduce it's aluminum forecast and blamed it on a slowing China economy. COST reported this morning and is up nicely pre-market on a beat. We also have Whole Sale inventories and the Beige Book today as possible market catalysts. Right now the futures have been bouncing between green and red, so we shall see how this plays out today.

Was a rough day for me with SINA and SODA yesterday but I am still holding out hope on the $65 calls and holding $40 calls on SODA.

I do think BIDU is going to continue to drop today i wrote this yesterday : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/baidu-bidu-wall-street-darling-no-more/ Have the 100/95 weekly puts and the OCT 20 90 puts.

YUM and COST maybe nice plays for the opening bell ramp up. YUM 72.50 calls and COST 105 maybe nice quick lottos on a gamble they break to the upside after the open, which i think they both will.

LNKD had tight bollies and expected a breakout... well it did but to the downside. Doesn't mean it won't bounce and I will be waiting for a possible bounce. $115/$120 calls maybe a nice play.

Still like BLK here and many folks are starting to get on the bandwagon. Maybe another day or two before it nears $200 so $195/200 calls maybe a nice play.

 

Others on watch: NFLX, PCLN, TZOO, WYNN, ISRG, MLNX

Lets have a great day!

Jimmybob

Baidu (BIDU) – Wall Street Darling No More

Today officially marks the end of Baidu (BIDU) as the once loved wall-street darling that rose 1000%+ from the 2008 collapse... at least in my book. It used to be a stock every hedge fund owned and every analyst had buy ratings with lofty price targets. Today Credit Suisse downgraded the stock and reduced it's price target from $118 to $83, which is the lowest price target on the stock right now. I think that will change as analysts will continue the trend of downgrading the stock on competition and market share concerns.

Folks bearish on the stock have been raising their bets on future downside, as 8,494,038 shares are currently short and is an increase of over 1 million shares from the month before. I expect that to increase 3-4 fold in the coming weeks.

We are betting on a quick move under $100 for Baidu(BIDU) this week, as the selling pressure increases and shorters continue to increase their bets. We currently hold the 100/95 weekly puts and the October 20th puts. Baidu(BIDU) can be a very volatile stock, so be prepared for some wild swings here but to me it looks like the 3 week battle of bull vs bear has been decided with a decisive victory coming from the Bears here shortly.

Baidu is trading at $106.32 as we write this.

 

10-9 Watchlist

 

Waking up to riots on Greece and flat futures, all though they are now green. Not too many market catalysts today, but we do have the official earnings season kick-off with Alcoa reporting after the bell. We also have YUM brands. The IMF lowered the growth forecast for the World Economy and it took a toll on the asian market over night with Japan down near 1%. The China market opened after a week long holiday and opened up 2%.

Again, I am still under the premise that we melt higher these next few weeks. Stocks i am watching:

BLK - still big on this stock and think it sees $200 short term. May add some 200s to my warchest today. CITI upgrade yesterday to $220 and almost seemed like they quoted my blog piece.

SODA - Ready for another 5%+ move here and over $40 in short order. Good comments out from JPM yesterday : SodaStream shares not pricing in much for U.S. business, says JPMorgan -  $40 calls look to be the play here and may ad 42.50s if i see it get some volume.

NFLX - getting hammered here PM and a reason why you need to take some profits if your up big. Will lose quite a bit on my 72.50 calls at open. Wont look to play it, but I think big money keeps this up in the 70s today. Who knows.

YUM - is one I am looking at to play on earnings today with the $70 calls @ .42. Will post in chat if i grab some but looks like nice risk v reward IMHO

BIDU - Big downgrade and PT drop today. Not going to play but I think it may start getting some mojo to the downside and its possible it heads under $100. If I see volume under $108 i will go for some 100/95 puts

Those are the ones I will be watching, here is more on the list: PCLN, MLNX, AMZN, LNKD, WYNN

Lets have a GREAT DAY!!

- Jimmy

10-5-2012

The end of the week is here, and what a great week it was to start off October! Of course today was the much anticipated unemployment number and boy it didn't disappoint. Seems to me like folks got nervous about the debate and their hand was forced as the unemployment number magically dropped .3% to 7.8%, under the 8% mark just in time for the election. What a crock of... well you know what I am going to say. Obviously I am happy with the result because I am still bullish and hold calls. Watch for the Gap and Trap today as most stocks will get a nice boost out of the gate, and premiums will erode throughout the day.

Some quick things to note: 1. I will be gone by about 2pm today, have somewhere to go.  2. UPB week ahead class will be 10:30pm on Monday because of the holiday. Also Alcoa officially kicks off earnings season on Tuesday, so should be a great class to watch.

Now onto the watchlist:

BLK - I still love this stock to start outperforming. Read my thoughts here : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/blackrock-blk-the-chase-for-performance/   I have the 190/195 calls and will hold till next week at least. Earnings are on OCT 17th, and dont plan to hold all the calls until then, but you never know. Expect the stock to be $191-$196 in short order.

LNKD - Tight bollie breakout is going to happen very soon, if not today. I am positioned with $135 OCT 20th calls and will add more sometime today. Could be a nice flip on the 125s today if your crazy like me

Others to watch for weekly option 'Gambling" : PCLN 645/650s, GOOG 780s maybe/  BIDU 115s/  AAPL 670s

Lets have a great day!

 

- Jimmybob

Blackrock (BLK) – The Chase for Performance

With the S&P up over 16% year-to-date, it can be hard to find some stocks that have potential to break out... or is it? Laggards in this type of market are usually the ones with poor fundamentals or growth. Finding ones that maybe slipping through the cracks could offer a nice risk vs. reward scenario. We think Blackrock(BLK) is one that fits the bill.

With earnings beats in the last 9 quarters dating back to mid-2010, one would think the stock would be up quite a bit from there, but it's actually down $40 from its $220 high. There are some concerns over Blackrock(BLK) and it's revenue growth and that is one of the reasons the stock fails to find its footing. It's also losing ETF market share.  But in this era of easy money, where folks are looking for places to get a return on their equity, a stock like Blackrock(BLK) could be one to look at.

The financial sector is up 23% Year-to-date yet Blackrock(BLK) is only up 3%. Somethings got to give. We are thinking it will be Blackrock's(BLK) shares to the upside.

We currently hold $190 and $195 Oct 20th calls. We will have more on Blackrock(BLK) in the next few days.