All posts by jimmybob

12-10 Watchlist

 

Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend. We now have 3 more weeks until the end of the year, so should be some fun leading up to 2013.  Futures took a hit last night when Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said he was stepping down in 2013. Folks are crediting him for some of overhauls saving the country from fiscal doom. China also reported some mixed data over the weekend, and some of the china ADR's are down pre-market like BIDU and SINA.

 

Here are the strikes I am watching today:

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
OPEN CALL $47.50 DEC 0.50
OPEN CALL $50.00 DEC 0.20
SHLD CALL $47.00 DEC WKLY 0.33
SHLD CALL $50.42 DEC 0.36
MLNX CALL $77.50 DEC 0.50

I like OPEN here especially if it breaks overhead resistance at 45.86. Second week trying to catch the SHLD bounce, and think 46-47 comes in quick order when it does. MLNX is oversold and will see $75 or so this week.

UPB did his week ahead class last night and it will be uploaded sometime today. There is a few earnings to keep an eye on and he reviewed them with charts. I will also have more today on SODA and OPEN.

Lets have a great day, I will be in chat all day!

- Jimmybob

12-7 Watchlist

 

Hope everyone had a great week so far. There has been quite a few moves this week including NFLX, AAPL, FCX, NOK, SODA, and others. November Jobs numbers came out and the futures spiked from red to solid green as the unemployment level dropped to 7.7%, the lowest since 2008. That should bolster the market today as long as there is no funny games from politicians. WIll tread carefully today but could be some nice lotto plays

Today I will just be posting the stocks and strikes I will be looking at for possible flips today:

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration
NFLX CALL $90.00 WEEKLY
NFLX CALL $95.00 WEEKLY
CAT CALL $87.50 WEEKLY
AAPL CALL $570.00 WEEKLY
GOOG CALL $700.00 WEEKLY
PCLN CALL $680.00 WEEKLY

 

Short watchlist today, as it's been a very busy week! I will be in audio almost the entire day, and will post any entries or exits in the chatroom. Lets have a great trading day!

 

- Jimmybob

12-6 Watchlist

 

Yesterday was a very interesting day as the DOW was bright green, Nasdaq bright red, and S&P slightly green. AAPL was down the most since 2008 and is in the red PM. FCX was a great play yesterday and UPB was lucky enough to have the puts going into yesterday! Today looks to be another volatile up and down day so will be playing it light.

Yesterday was rough with SHLD/SODA/VRA all taking a beating. I still love SODA here and I am holding a boatload of calls. SHLD calls will probably expire worthless unless we get a quick ramp to the upside. I am also holding some 85/80 BIDU puts. I did grab some LULU calls, but the stock is replicating last Q's action and faded on the ER's release, inly to ramp into the green. I think the stock ramps all day and 72.50/75 calls could be nice lottos. The company always under guides and over delivers just like this Q. I will look to relaod some SODA DEC 45 calls, as well as getting some SWHC calls for earnings.

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SODA CALL $45.00 DEC 0.45 0.40
LULU CALL $75.00 DEC WKLY 1.21 0.30
LULU CALL $72.50 DEC WKLY 1.99 0.50
SWHC CALL $12.00 DEC WKLY 0.25 0.25

Lets have a great day and see you in the chatroom!

 

- jimmybob

12-5 Watchlist

Yesterday was another great day in the chatroom with NFLX, SODA, SHLD, AAPL, and others making folks some nice $$. Days like these are not common so please don't trade like the next one is going to be a 10-100 bagger or trade outside your risk level. It's also very easy to risk more as your account goes up, but that can lead to bigger losses. Either way, hope you made some $$ and looking forward to a great week.

I am still VERY bullish on SHLD breaking out and hold 45 weekly calls. I still like SODA as i think folks are just starting to jump on the bandwagon. I sold enough of my 82.50 NFLX calls to sleep easy last night, but still hold quite a bit more, and added 100 calls near the end of the day @ .25 just in case.

Futures are up nicely as Chinas rally has helped lift the markets. We shall see how todays trade goes, but I think we continue to be somewhat rangebound or higher.

Options I am looking at to enter today:

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SODA CALL $50.00 JAN 0.75 0.75
SODA CALL $52.50 JAN 0.50 0.50
VRA CALL $35.00 JAN 0.25 0.25
LULU CALL $80.00 DEC WKLY 0.30 0.30
LULU CALL $85.00 JAN 0.56 0.56

 

I still love SODA and locked in some of my lower strike calls, will get some higher JAN calls for possible continued move to $50+. Want to position for LULU earnings as well and the calls are even cheaper today, didnt pull the trigger yesterday. Like VRA after the bell, but did get killed by it last time i played so be wary!

Lets have another great day!!

- jimmybob

Disney(DIS) Sprinkling Some Pixie Dust on Netflix(NFLX) Calls

We have made some bullish calls on Netflix(NFLX) lately and we have been betting on more upside as negative sentiment over the company and stock subsided. It was only last week when we were calling for an 8-12%+ move in the stock coming soon. Why did we think that way? Well history does have a tendency to repeat itself, and we do have a very short memory. In October the stock rallied 13% on rumors of a buyout from Microsoft(MSFT). Then on that following Wednesday, after the market closure from Sandy, the stock rallied over 20% after a filing from Carl Ichan. Crazy moves for folks holding the stock, but insane moves for those in calls. Trading options can be very risky, but also can be extremely rewarding, especially for those in our chatroom trading Netflix(NFLX) over the past 6 months.

Here is what I had to say trading Netflix in the last few days in October:

Had a feeling stock may rally a bit as it held its ground after earnings and was treading higher. Bought the calls when the stock was at $60. Next day it shows some strength in the mid-morning and ramps higher the rest of the day on strong volume from a so-called buyout rumor from MSFT. Could have sold as high as $5.10 on the calls but settled for 2 filled. $382 could have been $15k instead sold for 6,682. 

10/25/2012 09:46:29 Bought 10 NFLX Oct 26 2012 65.0 Call @ 0.13 -147.66 
10/25/2012 14:00:36 Bought 23 NFLX Oct 26 2012 65.0 Call @ 0.09 -234.64 

Total Cost : 382.3 

10/26/2012 14:43:37 Sold 16 NFLX Oct 26 2012 65.0 Call @ 2.59 4,121.63
10/26/2012 14:51:17 Sold 17 NFLX Oct 26 2012 65.0 Call @ 1.52 2,560.91

Total Sale : 6682.54 

I then went and bought the $75 calls for next week as I the action looked extremely bullish irregardless of BS buyout rumors NFLX always has. Option prices were higher now then they were before earnings, which was very odd. Bought 50 @ .40 and they closed $1.25 an hour later. I held them through the weekend even though they were already a 3x bagger. 

10/26/2012 14:54:24 Bought 50 NFLX Nov 2 2012 75.0 Call @ 0.4 -2,048.34 

Of course Hurricane Sandy comes and the market is closed Monday and Tuesday. The odds of the market ever closing is minuscule and the fact that the option values decayed drove me nuts, but its the game we play and know the risks. Figured NFLX would open flat or maybe red and the calls would be .60-.80. Turns out Dealreporter comes out to squash the buyout rumor and NFLX opens down 4% on decent volume. Watched as the bottom fell out and the stock went to $65. Some reason my gut said the stock should be down more, and Fridays volume was a ‘tell’ for me that someone was bidding up the stock. So right near the bottom I bought 40 more the $75 call @ .14, even though they expire in less then 3 days and I would need the stock to move $10 to make some nice money. Also bought some of the 90 calls @ .24 

10/31/2012 09:39:06 Bought 40 NFLX Nov 2 2012 75.0 Call @ 0.14 -600.67 
10/31/2012 09:40:18 Bought 18 NFLX Nov 17 2012 90.0 Call @ 0.24 -455.80 

What i was saying in Chat that day before the ICHAN news that vaulted it from $70 to $85 in seconds: 

2012-10-31 02:30:22 PM jimmybob $75+ this wee 
2012-10-31 02:30:18 PM jimmybob we know interantional was going up expense wise... non event imho 
2012-10-31 02:30:27 PM jimmybob follow the money flow 
2012-10-31 01:34:35 PM jimmybob why you folks want NFLX to die? 
2012-10-31 01:34:52 PM jimmybob someones bidding her up last two days... dosnt need buyout rumors or other bs 

Of course i saw the volume and surge, stock was halted at about $76 for circuit breaker. Put my order in during the halt to sell some @ $4 

10/31/2012 15:04:40 Sold 50 NFLX Nov 2 2012 75.0 Call @ 4 19,951.21

I actually tried to change my order to $5 when it started up but it filled me right away. Stock then vaults all the way to $84.95, then gets halted again. The remaining 40 contracts are now worth $10 each x 40 = $40k. If had put an order in to sell all at $10 would have $90k sale. Instead I put my order in to sell the rest for $7 while the second halt is happening. They never fill and i have to drop to $6 to fill. 

10/31/2012 15:14:51 Sold 40 NFLX Nov 2 2012 75.0 Call @ 6 23,958.79 

Morale of the story is, if you read every where, 95% of folks are bearish and will give you 99 reasons why you should be short the stock...ect, Meanwhile i just took $2649.01and turned it into $43,910. 

If you add fridays trades it’s : $3031.31 into 50,592.54 in two trading days. It doesn’t always happen like this, and I have plenty of losers, but when they pay it can be very rewarding!

 

Now do you see why we continue to have Netflix(NFLX) on watch, and nibble some calls almost every week? Of course today was a day like any other, where we positioned ourselves for some upside as Netflix(NFLX) was getting a bid. Figured Netflix(NFLX) would put another dagger in the bears back so grabbed some calls on the early strength after the bounce from under $75(key support)

12/04/2012 09:57:47 Bought 3 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.31 -95.31
12/04/2012 09:57:47 Bought 1 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.31 -31.77
12/04/2012 09:57:47 Bought 1 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.31 -31.77
12/04/2012 09:57:47 Bought 1 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.31 -31.77
12/04/2012 09:57:47 Bought 1 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.31 -31.77
12/04/2012 09:57:47 Bought 4 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.31 -137.06
12/04/2012 10:01:05 Bought 4 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.35 -143.07
12/04/2012 10:01:05 Bought 2 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.35 -71.54
12/04/2012 10:01:05 Bought 4 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.35 -143.07
12/04/2012 10:01:05 Bought 1 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.35 -35.77
12/04/2012 10:01:05 Bought 2 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.35 -71.54
12/04/2012 10:01:05 Bought 1 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.35 -35.77
12/04/2012 10:01:05 Bought 1 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.35 -35.77
12/04/2012 10:01:05 Bought 10 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.35 -367.66
12/04/2012 10:02:28 Bought 2 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.4 -81.54
12/04/2012 10:02:28 Bought 4 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.4 -163.07
12/04/2012 10:02:28 Bought 4 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.4 -163.07
12/04/2012 10:02:28 Bought 2 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.4 -81.54
12/04/2012 10:02:28 Bought 3 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.4 -122.31
12/04/2012 10:02:28 Bought 3 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.4 -122.31
12/04/2012 10:02:28 Bought 1 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.4 -40.77
12/04/2012 10:02:28 Bought 11 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 0.4 -458.43

We were also in our chatroom, on stock twits, and on our audio explaining the thought process and alerting the trades we made. Of course luck plays a part as Disney(DIS) & Netflix(NFLX) deal is announced and the stock ramps from $78 to low 80s in 20 seconds. This is when we put on the headphones and tune out the noise. Holding 66 calls avgd at about .36 are now worth $2, or $2k is now work $13k. Netflix is now $82 and climbing. Any sane person is selling but I was saying it on audio, this is a big deal. Kept reading and re-reading the PR and then I put my limit in for half of my calls @ $5.00 even though they were worth $2.37. Netflix(NFLX) ramps to $84.50, then falls down to 82.98. Almost panic but stick to my guns. Finally stock bolts higher and breaks $85... then 86... calls are 4.70 with 1 hour left. The stock could fade the rest of the day, but stuck to my guns... 5 minutes later the order fills:

12/04/2012 15:06:17 Sold 1 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 5 489.22
12/04/2012 15:06:24 Sold 2 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 5 998.43
12/04/2012 15:06:27 Sold 1 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 5 499.21
12/04/2012 15:06:53 Sold 14 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 5 6,989.10
12/04/2012 15:06:55 Sold 12 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 5 5,990.65
12/04/2012 15:06:55 Sold 3 NFLX Dec 07 2012 82.5 Call @ 5 1,497.65

Now i can sleep tonight. I am a very risky options trader and there have been many times positions like that have gone against me and expired worthless, but there have been many more this year that have run 2000%+.

I think Netflix(NFLX) continues it's bull run tomorrow and breaks over the $90 we have been calling for by the end of December. I guess we will see tomorrow.

We still hold $82.50 and 100 weekly calls.