Markets closed mostly lower yesterday, with the S&P finishing the session down .07% while the Nasdaq closed off over .58%. Asia markets closed in the green overnight while Europe indexes are higher this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a green open, Yields are lower while Oil, Gold, and the Dollar are higher.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-78/
Stocks gapped higher at the open yesterday, looking to add to Wednesdays CPI gains, but buyers disappeared after 10:30. The SPY tested $425 only to reverse course and close right near session lows at $419.99. There were annoying reversals in many names, so not a fun day for premiums. That $420 still looks like a key spot so would want to see that hold heading into the weekend:
I am sure there will likely be more headlines this weekend around the Nasdaq's new bull-market and arguments over a bear market bounce or have we bottomed. A nice quote here from Marketwatch:
“The 20% rally/decline threshold is the most commonly used to define bull and bear markets….The Nasdaq Composite reached the 20% rally level on a closing basis [on Wednesday], which ended the bear market for the index that began on November 19th, 2021,” Bespoke writes in a note.
“What is most striking about the just-ended Nasdaq bear market is just how average it was. From peak to trough, the Nasdaq fell 33.7% over 209 calendar days from November 19th, 2021 to June 16th, 2022. The average bear market since 1970 has seen the index fall 35.5% over 201 calendar days,” Bespoke adds.
WIX rallied over $80 after the open yesterday and I was able to lock more of my calls in for 300%. WIX fell with the rest of the market to close at $75.77. Will likely hold the last of my calls for a revisit of the $80s next week but will use the $75 handle as a stop and revisit:
AMLX reported earnings after the close yesterday. Cash, cash burn, and company updates are what are most important when it comes to a Bio like AMLX and all seemed fine. The concern would be they do some type of offering before their Adcom next month - though it would likely be smart of them. Will continue to hold my calls but will use the $23 handle as a stop on this one and revisit:
TRIP held up surprisingly well yesterday despite the market reversal and think that bodes well heading into next week where I think $28+ is possible. Will use the $25 handle as a stop and revisit:
PTON reports earnings in two weeks. I may nibble some calls for premium build into the report for a move to $15+ in the coming days.
Still eyeing YOU into earnings Monday and will be looking at some possible lotto calls today in names like SPOT, TEAM, NFLX, and maybe ROKU.
Lastly, ILMN laid an egg with their earnings after the close yesterday, with a big revenue guidance cut. Premiums were tough so I passed. Likely off my watchlist for a while.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| BlackRock price target raised to $860 from $720 at Deutsche Bank |
| Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Bedell raised the firm's price target on BlackRock (BLK) to $860 from $720 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Bedell revised some macro assumptions in his models and revised EPS estimates and price targets among his Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges coverage, noting "a mostly upward bias" given the equity market rebound in Q3 so far and "relatively good" fundamentals evidenced in Q2. In terms of positioning into the second half of this year, he views the alternative managers as still best positioned for upside despite the recent strong rebound in the stocks, followed by a preference for Charles Schwab (SCHW) in the e-brokers, Bedell noted |
| Robinhood price target raised to $10 from $9 at Deutsche Bank |
| Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Bedell raised the firm's price target on Robinhood (HOOD) to $10 from $9 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Bedell revised some macro assumptions in his models and revised EPS estimates and price targets among his Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges coverage, noting "a mostly upward bias" given the equity market rebound in Q3 so far and "relatively good" fundamentals evidenced in Q2. In terms of positioning into the second half of this year, he views the alternative managers as still best positioned for upside despite the recent strong rebound in the stocks, followed by a preference for Charles Schwab (SCHW) in the e-brokers, Bedell noted |
And here is what I am watching today: PTON, YOU, TEAM, CI, SAGE, DIS, SPOT, RBLX, BEAM, CRSP, EDIT, ICPT, PTON, and PYPL.
Let's have a great day!
-JB