Good morning. Real quick before the opening bell this morning.
We are in the midst of one of the best weeks all year for the stock market, at least for the bulls. The bears... well.... not so much.
Wednesdays CPI report and yesterdays PPI report have given investors reason to believe that inflation is starting to roll over. Which is good. However there are still plenty of reasons to sell stocks.
And there have been plenty of excuses to sell stocks the last 13 years since the March 2009 lows. The difference this time around is the FED does not have the stock markets back.
Each negative headline, or excuse, prior to this inflation debacle, meant the FED would keep record low interest rates and QE around even longer.
It is very easy now, to look at a stock market that is starting to cry, after 13+ years of having the FED around to stick the pacifier in its mouth when it got upset, and wonder how prices could possibly head higher.
And yet.... this week... as per the WSJ... market the start of a new bull market for the NASDAQ.
In March 2020 at end of the month with the pandemic just picking up steam, the WSJ posted a similar headline announcing a new bull market was under way.
The response in 2020 was brutal. The WSJ was mocked.
The response this week.... the same...
The S&P500 soared over 100% in less than two years from the WSJ new bull market declaration in March 2020. The one that seemingly everyone mocked.
The irony in March 2020 when the WSJ said a new bull market was underway, most thought new lows were coming. The same people now that are saying the bear market is just starting and expect 40-50% downside, are the ones in 2020 with the $SPY at $220 that were saying new lows were coming, another 40% downside was on the way. Ironic no?
And with the opening bell incoming, I'll conclude with this. The stock market, over the long term has gone up. It's been over 40 years since we've seen inflation like this. And yet on the other side of it, the market moved higher. What if we see a similar reaction. How many people are calling for new record highs for the market later this year or early 2023?
The last time the WSJ called a new bull market, stocks soared. They were mocked then too, just as they are right now. The bears will tell you history always repeats itself.. but when faced with the specter of a bull market.... somehow history stops repeating itself....