Markets reversed steep early morning loss to close higher on Wednesday, with the S&P adding 1.2% as Trade War concerns were somewhat alleviated by Larry Kudlow's comments. Asia markets closed mostly higher overnight while Europe stocks are are rallying this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a green open, the Dollar is higher, while Treasuries, Gold, and Oil are all lower.
I finally pulled the trigger on some TSLA calls as the stock started breaking over Tuesdays levels. I think the stock works its way back over $300 in the coming days. Will look to close some of the position out at 100% to cover costs and ride the rest. Would be a big deal if it can close over $290 today:
NVDA tested $214 at the open, found support, and bounced the rest of the session. I had my $197.50 puts up on the ask for a double but they never filled. if the market continues its volatility, it may be a trade I revisit as it is possible a short term top has been reached and a pull under $205 is coming:
ICPT announced an offering yesterday, with insiders wanting a piece of it. A great sign with a huge binary event coming in the 1st half of 2019. There is a near 40% short interest in the name, and this could spark some covering. I may look for some calls to play for a move into the mid- $70s in the coming days.
The LFIN CEO was on Fast Money last night. It is one of those interviews you watch and then wonder what the heck just happened. He talks in circles, does not give any concrete answers to any questions, and then implies there is over $1 billion shares sold short on his companies stock - almost like he is trying to incite a short squeeze. A waste of time to watch but here are the clips if you missed and watch to see:
CEO of blockchain stock Longfin defends his company $LFIN Part 1 pic.twitter.com/jjXNLJ8ZWO
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) April 4, 2018
CEO of blockchain stock Longfin defends his company $LFIN Part 2 pic.twitter.com/wtd1YsqORU
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) April 4, 2018
Still holding the rest of mu June $25 puts. if the stock squeezes today to $15 or so I may look to add some other puts to play for the eventual move under $5.
AZO received an upgrade today - if the stock fails to reclaim $650 I may start looking for some puts into next week.
CMG maybe setting up for another big move. May look for some calls today:
The SPY averted disaster and closed solidly over the 200dma. Today is a pivotal day, as it seems every time the market looks ready to put this correction behind it there is a 1%+ sell-off. Would like to see the SPY reclaim that $266 area. The VIX is also something I will be watching - it is hanging around the 20 level even with this mornings gap higher:
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Automation the next 'cloud wars' battle, says KeyBanc | |
| KeyBanc analyst Brent Bracelin says the AWS Summit SF exposed an even greater focus by Amazon (AMZN) Web Services on cloud automation. The analyst believes the "cloud wars" in 2018 appear to be moving from a battle of "features" seen in the last two years toward a new battle of "automation." Bracelin sees Automation as having three major benefits for AWS: it can drive material cost savings, it saves developers time, and it serves as a competitive differentiator versus Microsoft Azure (MSFT) and Google Cloud (GOOG; GOOGL). Bracelin reiterates a Sector Weight rating on Amazon's shares | |
| Boeing risk-reward improved after tariff-fueled pullback, says Morgan Stanley | |
| China's potential 25% tariff exceeded expectations, though it was equal in size to U.S. actions under Section 301, said Morgan Stanley analyst Rajeev Lalwani, who notes that for aerospace the tariff would be levied on aircraft with an empty weight exceeding 15,000kg but less than 45,000kg. This range may include the 737-700 and 737 MAX 7, noted the analyst, who estimates the backlog of those two aircraft for China represents less than about 1% of the total. If the next step is negotiation and resolution, which Morgan Stanley believes is probable, Lalwani said he sees "a clearer path" to his price target of $373 on Boeing share, which fell 1% yesterday to $327.44. He keeps an Equal Weight rating on the stock | |
| Booking Holdings risk/reward favorable, says Cowen | |
| Cowen analyst Kevin Kopelman reviewed his estimates on Booking Holdings and although aggressive, he believes the underlying EBIT is conservative. The analyst said the buyback will drive the company to his earnings estimate and he likes the risk/reward. Kopleman reiterated his Outperform rating and $2,650 price target on Booking Holdings shares | |
| Alibaba valuation 'quite attractive' at current levels, says Barclays | |
| Following meetings with management, Barclays analyst Gregory Zhao expects Alibaba to "maintain robust growth" in Q4. The company's conventional core commerce and new retail initiatives are "well on track," Zhao tells investors in a research note. He thinks "solid" performance of Tmall and Taobao could help partially offset the loss from online video and new retail. The analyst also expects Ant Financial's profit sharing contribution to rebound in the second half of 2018. Zhao views Alibaba's valuation as "quite attractive" art current share levels and keeps an Overweight rating on the name with a $220 price target. The stock closed yesterday down $2.60 to $172.07 | |
| AutoZone upgraded to Outperform at Wedbush | |
| As previously reported, Wedbush analyst Seth Basham upgraded AutoZone (AZO) to Outperform from Neutral on the basis of more reasonable investor margin expectations, continued relative comp outperformance due to solid execution and appropriate investments, an improving industry outlook for spring/summer, a more benign near-term Amazon (AMZN) threat and attractive valuation. The analyst also raised his price target on AutoZone's shares to $750 from $670 | |
| Facebook expected to 'weather the storm,' says Wells Fargo | |
| Wells Fargo analyst Ken Sena says his advertising and agency contacts continue to point to the fact that marketers with direct and purchased access to third party data will still be able to apply it to Facebook targeting. Moreover, combined with the fact that Facebook's first party data and advertiser's customer data will continue to be applicable to Facebook targeting, the analyst expects no material negative impact on advertiser spending. Sena reiterates an Outperform rating and $230 price target on the shares | |
| Spotify initiated with a Buy at Stifel | |
| Stifel analyst John Egbert started coverage of Spotify (SPOT) with a Buy rating and $180 price target, stating that he believes the company's $9.99 a month music streaming service is right behind Amazon's (AMZN) Prime membership and Netflix's (NFLX) $10.99 a month streaming subscription on the list of Internet services on a value per dollar basis. He forecasts Spotify will reach approximately 300 million monthly active users, including 159 million paying subscribers, by 2021. Egbert also thinks Spotify can deliver meaningful operating profits and cash flow within its current licensing structure, with additional upside if the company succeeds in demand creation and / or non-music content | |
| NetEase price target lowered to $347 from $365 at Deutsche Bank | |
| Deutsche Bank analyst Han Joon Kim lowered his price target for NetEase to $347 ahead of the company's Q1 results. Given the recent pullback in the shares, the Q1 "earnings trough could represent a tactical entry point," Kim tells investors in a research note. He says that while the company "is still lacking in the new pipeline area," he does see high visibility of sequential recovery beyond Q1 amid new game launches and improved monetization of sandbox shooting games. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on NetEase | |
| Citi sees $100B opportunity in Apple's capital returns strategy | |
| Citi analyst Jim Suva reiterates a Buy rating on Apple shares with a $200 price target. The analyst expects "volatility ahead" for the stock as consensus estimates for the March and June quarters move lower to reflect more tempered demand for the iPhone X. Looking ahead, however, Suva expects investor focus to be on the impact from Apple's capital returns strategy. He estimates this could be a $100B increase. Investors will also soon focus on Apple's second half of 2018 product lineup and continued strength in its Services segment, Suva tells investors in a research note | |
| Biogen downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays | |
| Barclays analyst Geoffrey Meacham downgraded Biogen to Equal Weight and lowered his price target for the shares to $295 from $395. The analyst sees limited pipeline catalysts before the Alzheimer readouts in the first half of 2020. He believes the data are too far out to support a bullish on the shares. Meacham, however, remains bullish on the probability of success for aducanumab | |
And here is what I am watching today:
|
Stock Ticker |
Call/Put |
Strike |
Expiration |
Closing Price |
Possible Entry Price |
|
CMG |
CALL |
$360.00 |
April 20th |
.70 x .85 |
0.80 |
|
ICPT |
CALL |
$68.50 |
Weekly |
.20 x .55 |
0.40 |
|
ICPT |
CALL |
$75.00 |
April 20th |
.65 x 1 |
0.85 |
Let's have a GREAT DAY!
-JB