Markets closed mostly higher on Wednesday, with the S&P adding .21% while the Nasdaq squeezed out a small loss. Asia markets closed higher overnight and Europe stocks are also in the green this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open as I write this, the Dollar and Yields are up while Oil and Gold are lower.
It was another roller-coaster session for markets on Wednesday. Stocks opened higher but then had wild swings between red and green only to close mixed. After the close, FB reported earnings that could be considered weak, yet the stock is staging a relief rally... ie. that the numbers were not as bad as feared. Futures are pointing to a bounce again this morning. If it can't hold, have to think we revisit $415 on the SPY:
Yesterday was a classic example of how tough it is right now trading weekly calls and puts intra-day. If you had calls from the day befores close they would have looked nice, only to see them get decimated within the first hour of trading. If you bought puts at yesterdays open, they would have looked good in the first hour, only to see them decimated by 1pm. These violent chops are an easy way to destroy an account so I will continue to be patient while looking at longer term plays.
The first read on 1Q GDP came out this morning and it missed estimates, coming in negative.
US GDP Annualised (Q/Q) Q1 A: -1.4% (est 1.0%; prev 6.9%) - US Personal Consumption Q1 A: 2.7% (est 3.5%; prev 2.5%) - US GDP Price Index Q1 A: 8.0% (est 7.2%; prev 7.1%) - US Core PCE (Q/Q) Q1 A: 5.2% (est 5.5%; prev 5.0%)
Back to back negative GDP growth equals a recession. So the optimist in me thinks maybe the market has priced that in already and we can move on. The worry in me would think how much worse is this going to get. I am sure this weekend the recession headlines will be everywhere, just like the inflation headlines have been for the past few months. Not saying we are entering a new bull market next week, just think maybe the market will do what is least expected.
SAM rallied to near $380 yesterday before reversing course to close at $359 or $20 off the highs. $378 is the 50dma so seems it found resistance there. If it can find some strength today think that will bode well for am eventual move back over $400 with that $378 handle being resistance. If it can't hold gains today I may look to lock the last of my calls in and revisit:
IBM closed at $135.06 yesterday, Still hopeful on a move back over $140 in the coming days and may actually look to add some later dated strikes on strength:
Still like BTAI here, especially with earnings May 9th which will provide some updates and a potential catalyst. The stock neared its 52 week low at the close yesterday so would want to see that $13.14 area hold:
It is a big day for ROKU after the close. I have sat on my hands trying not to catch the falling knife. The stock closed at levels not seen since the pandemic. Still think they will post some strong numbers after the close. May look to nibble some speculative strikes today full well knowing they may be bidless come tomorrows open:
And absolute crazy story about Bill Hwang and what went down last year :
A nice summary here from Blooomberg:
It hits home with me after seeing the action in some off those names last year, BIDU for example.
Always complaints from folks saying the market is manipulated... well this episode with Bill Hwang shows it can be done.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
Teladoc downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at SVB Leerink |
| SVB Leerink analyst Stephanie Davis downgraded Teladoc to Market Perform from Outperform |
| Viking Therapeutics price target lowered to $15 from $20 at Roth Capital |
| Roth Capital analyst Scott Henry lowered the firm's price target on Viking Therapeutics to $15 from $20 given lower multiple assumptions. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on the shares following quarterly results |
| PayPal price target lowered to $95 from $105 at Jefferies |
| Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams lowered the firm's price target on PayPal to $95 from $105 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after the company reported Q1 results and lowered its FY22 growth outlook. The "much-needed" cut to FY22 should help put a floor under the stock, but relying on ARPU growth to make up for lower NNAs is still unproven and greater visibility into FY23 and beyond will be needed to begin the stock's re-rating process, Williams contends |
| Meta Platforms price target lowered to $295 from $315 at MKM Partners |
| MKM Partners analyst Rohit Kulkarni lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $295 from $315 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q1 results were "mixed" and its Q2 guidance was "soft", though the post-earnings rally reflects a "collective sigh of relief" that Meta has navigated the trifecta of headwinds - TikTok, Apple privacy/signal loss, and Europe impact from Russia ban, the analyst tells investors in a research note |
Iqvia price target lowered to $240 from $275 at Barclays |
| Barclays analyst Luke Sergott lowered the firm's price target on Iqvia to $240 from $275 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the Q1 results. The underlying business continues to accelerate, says the analyst, who sees little risk to underlying demand and thinks sentiment could turn after this quarter |
Impinj price target lowered to $76 from $95 at Roth Capital |
| Roth Capital analyst Scott Searle lowered the firm's price target on Impinj to $76 from $95 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following quarterly results. While near-term results will remain muted, the analyst believes that an easing wafer supply environment is nearing. Overall, Searle remains encouraged by new use cases and a record opportunity pipeline |
And here is what I am watching today: ROKU, CMG, EXAS, ALGN, CAR, CUTR, and BURL. And MDB, TEAM, OKTA, ZS, and DDOG.
Let's have a great day!
-JB