Weekend Perspective

Notice how the negative headlines are becoming more frequent as the market pulls further from record highs?  

News flow, unlike price action, is almost always lagging.

The S&P500 rests this weekend some 6.5% off the record high close of a little over a month ago.   You could see the cracks forming again as we headed into the next leg of this pull back.

From a longer term perspective momentum was making a similar turn to the ones we saw just prior to the January 2018 and October 2018 pull backs.

Also it doesn't take long to find those uber bears out calling for a 1987, 2000, 2007 type collapse from here.

These same correlations draw plenty of likes on twitter.   These same people have been drawing, making comparisons about these crash scenarios  for ten years ad running now.

I don't think we are there yet.  I don't think the top is in.  I also think $SPY sees $300 later this year, but just like in January near the lows when I said we'd hit new record highs (which we  did not long ago) I am in the minority on seeing fresh record highs later this year.

Where do I think this most recent pull back will stop?  I highlighted last week and talked about it on Wednesday in the Market Prepper video.

S&P500 futures  2725 and $SPY  $272.50 will be strong support this week.  A break of which I think puts that collision course with $SPY  $260 on the table.

There remains plenty of excuses for the market to sell down to $272.50 and then $260 on the $SPY, all of which are nothing new to market participants.   Growth worries,   recession worries, Tariff worries... we can now add Mexican Tariff worries to the long list of excuses to sell.

We know how these excuses to sell have worked out over the last 10+ years.... none of the excuses have led to that 1987 style crash your favorite twitter follow has been calling for since 2010.  Or that bear market of 2000,  or a financial crisis 'esque depression.

Rather every named excuse to sell has ended up being a great buying opportunity.  And I'll say it again, as I've been saying it almost every year since 2011,  that this buying opportunity will be like all the others.  And yes... while Zerohedge and all those uber bears like to mock this comment... It is different this time.  The Central Banks have opened the Pandora's box.    And when this market reverses to fresh record highs... those same bears that are saying the FED is out of AMMO, will be the ones saying the FED has manipulated asset prices to record highs.. yet again.  How is that possible?  🙂

Ever get a chance to check the share count of your favorite dow component?  It has shrunk considerably over the last 9+ years.   Buybacks baby.

Supply and demand.   Even amid a steady demand of investing, buying stocks.... if the supply shrinks invariably prices rise.  As much as some like to say buybacks just mop up stock based compensation... the outstanding share numbers tell the story.  And with interest rates to remain abnormally low in this new centrally planned normal, corporations will continue to shrink share supply.

Here's one... Home Depot.   Over the last 12 years the outstanding shares for Home Depot have declined by almost 50%!

How about this chart.

$AAPL's outstanding shares

When AAPL launched its massive buyback program it was a $50 stock.   It rallied over $230 just six years later.

Think the buyback had anything to do with the price action?

and finally what happens when supply shrinks and demand INCREASES?.................

Anyway, more on that another time.

So yes I think there is more downside coming.  It could get as bad as $SPY  $260..   No I don't think this is the last pull back.  I do think we could see $272.50 and be done with this most recent decline.  And yes, those uber bears who are out posting those correlations to today with other times in history when the market crashed are just trying to mine followers by scaring the crap out of them.  Fear sells.  And patience pays.

See you in the chat room tomorrow for another great week!

Known to most as Uranium Pinto Beans, Jason has more than 15 years under his belt of trading stocks, options and currencies. His expertise primarily lies in chart analysis, and he has a strong eye for undervalued stock. Because he’s got the ability to identify great risk/reward trades he usually enjoys taking the path less traveled and reaping the benefits from the adventure.

He is a co-founder of Option Millionaires, and he is best known for his weekly webinars with Scott, as well as his high level training webinars and charts found in the forums.

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