The Opposite of Smart

The S&P500 and Nasdaq closed yesterday at a new all time record high.   Never been higher.... ever.... at least until this morning when both are set to open at yet another fresh all time record high.

You would have never prepared yourself for a relentless stock market rally had you listened to those relentless bearish folk on financial media.

Marketwatch loves highlighting these folks, the stock market carnage, according to them, is always just days away,.. if not hours.  The years of Central bank assisted asset price protection have always been numbered.  In 2015 they ran a piece that said a stock market crash in 2016 was 100% coming..  it was guaranteed!

The Stock Market Crash of 2016


I can go on and on, but I won't

I've long since tried to tune these people out.  But it isn't easy.  You want two sides to the market.  Well thought and informative opinions on both sides of the market.. and yet it seems like the one side... those calling for downside every day.. the Hussman's and the like don't like calling for consolidation or modest downside.  Rather they try and scare people out of the stock market.  And I'm sure they've been successful in doing just that.

One thing is certain.... if you were long the stock market, positioned for higher stock prices... would you be writing articles every day for the last 10+ years on how the stock market is just days away from a sharp move lower?

Context.  Experience.  Why does the media and even twitter fall in love with these chronically wrong stock market pundits?

I imagine it like a car crash.  People slow down when there is an accident on the other side of the highway.  Not to see if they can help.... but to see what kind of calamity they may be able to observe.

These relentlessly negative stock market pundits  crash their cars everyday, and people just cant get enough....  they have to keep looking... even the Marketwatch's of the world.  Nothing sells more than fear and destruction.

Notice how many news trucks are on Wall Street as we hit new record high after new record high... none.

It's not the case the other way around.  Markets in Turmoil get a lot more views than another record high close for the market.  That's boring.

What's worse... those long the market are labeled dumb.  Stupid.

It's so easy being long with the FED leading the way.

How true is that?

When you have the "smart money" exiting the market all these years.  And they have.  'Smart money' was selling in droves even at the start of the bull market in 2010, 2011.  Money was coming out of mutual funds.  Money was coming out of the market... and yet it continued to rise.

Even at the start of this most recent bull market.  Widely followed and 'respected' market participants were calling this a short lived rally.  We were going to 'retest the lows' or worse... plunge even further.

The market was 'getting ahead of itself'

And yet here we are.  The most epic stock market rally to new all time record highs... ever.

It hasn't been easy.  We've seen more excuses to sell in 2020 than ever before.  Being long the market, amid the worse economic backdrop ever, has not been 'smart'.  But it's been RIGHT.

For the same reasons it's been right in the past... but even more so now.

The Central Banks are hell bent on keeping money cheap.  As long as money is cheap, stocks are cheap.  When money becomes expensive, stocks will become expensive.     You don't have to be that smart to understand this... and it's held true the last 10+ years.

Interest rates have been in a downtrend for 40+ years.  Stocks have been trending higher for 40+ years.  Coincidence?  I think not.

As I've wrote previously, there is only one thing that can stop this market.   

Until then we can let the 'smart money' do what its been doing for 10+ years... I'd rather be right.

Known to most as Uranium Pinto Beans, Jason has more than 15 years under his belt of trading stocks, options and currencies. His expertise primarily lies in chart analysis, and he has a strong eye for undervalued stock. Because he’s got the ability to identify great risk/reward trades he usually enjoys taking the path less traveled and reaping the benefits from the adventure.

He is a co-founder of Option Millionaires, and he is best known for his weekly webinars with Scott, as well as his high level training webinars and charts found in the forums.

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