It's Friday and with the potential catastrophe the media has been hyping with the shutdown of the government stocks have hung in there. Today they are poised for a boring, flat open. The $SPY has been in a $2 range all week and I don't think that is going to change heading into the weekend. I see a lot of talk about some of these bubbles starting to burst, as $TSLA finally pulled back this week. The top callers for $TSLA have been wrong to the tune of 400%, and the top callers on $SPY have been wrong for over 4 years. This embarrassing government bickering will end and come November stocks will be pushing through new all time highs.

Next week earnings season kicks off! AA on Tuesday, JPM, WFC on Friday. The following week the likes of GOOG report. This upcoming earnings season will test the market, the prices of some of these stocks, and whether or not recent gains are sustainable.

When the FED finally does start to taper I think they will do it slow enough to keep risk assets from falling. I think the can kicking thats been going on will last a few more years. When this sovereign debt inspired bubble finally does pop, it will be from much higher prices. I think its healthy for people to be calling for a top here, and for more downside. The market has been down 8 of the last 9 trading days, yet we are still mere percentage points away from fresh all time highs.

$ANGI has been clobbered the last few trading sessions. It was a fun ride up to $25, but a devastating drop to $17.30. I feel like Bill Ackman still sticking to my guns on $ANGI. I think its a $30+ stock. The good thing about my trades on $ANGI is I did not risk a whole lot, and they are OTM calls. Ackman shorted $HLF and is down some $400 million before deciding to go the OTM option route. With $ANGI we are below $20 support but with the way it trades, and the 80% bearish sentiment, seemingly everyone saying its a $5 stock, look for a bounce heading into the weekend.

Analyst Actions/Remarks

$FB Facebook price target raised to $58 from $50 at Sterne Agee
Sterne Agee raised its estimates on Facebook to reflect monetization of Instagram and better-than-expected ongoing trends. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the shares

$BA Boeing shares should be bought on weakness, says Sterne Agee
After Boeing delivered two more planes than Sterne Agee had expected in Q3, the firm thinks the stock will advance 40% within the next 12-18 months. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

$HOG Harley-Davidson price target raised to $74 from $65 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital increased its price target on Harley-Davidson as the firm thinks that consumers' reaction to the new 2014 Harley-Davidson motorcycles has been very positive. The firm raised its estimates slightly and keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.

$WYNN Wynn Resorts downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse downgraded Wynn Resorts due to rich valuation. Price target raised to $160 from $149

$SFLY Shutterfly Q3 results should be positive, says Cantor
Cantor reports that the amount of discounts offered by Shutterfly has not increased this quarter from previous quarters, while its paid click volume jumped more than 150% year-over-year in July and August. The firm thinks these metrics bode well for the company's Q3 results, and it continues to expect the results to come in at the high end of the company's guidance. Cantor keeps a Buy rating on the stock

$WFM Whole Foods moving further ahead of competition, says Wells Fargo
After meeting with Whole Foods' CEO, Wells Fargo is more confident that the company is moving further ahead of its competition, driven by retail/digital innovation, localization, quality standards, and better value. The firm reports that the company's new stores are exceeding expectations, and it keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

$OPEN is trading higher on a price upgrade. $FB the analysts continue to come in on this with higher price tgt's. It's feeling a lot like some recent high flyers that attracted numerous price upgrades along the way. I think there is more upside as the company is still figuring out how to turn their company into a revenue making machine. Also social media, especially with the upcoming twitter ipo, has been hot. $FB will be over $60 in a few months.

Trades I am looking at today:

glutton for punishment $ANGI $20 octcalls $.20

$FB OCT 11 $50 calls $.80

$AAPL OCT 11 $505 calls $1.00

Stock futures are slightly higher, and off their lows they hit a few hours ago.  This pull back from all time highs continues with the latest leg down being blamed on the current Syrian crisis.  $USO continues to work as a trade on the conflict and potential war, I wrote about this on Monday:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/uso-oil-spike-coming/

We have bonds pulling back and the recent run up for $TLT has met resistance at $106, which is a level I thought would be the highest area any bounce would go.

$EXPR reported earnings this morning and is up 8% last check.  The breakdown will have to wait it seems.  $TIF today has seen two downgrades, the stock should continue to weaken into weeks end and I think low $70's short term is not out of the question.

Morning headlines courtesy of zerohedge.com:

• Merkel Blames SPD’s Schroeder for Letting Greece Into Euro (BBG)
• U.S. Bank Legal Bills Exceed $100 Billion (BBG)
• U.K. to Request U.N. Action to Protect Syrians From Chemical Weapons  (WSJ) - and Russia to veto any decision
• U.N. inspectors in new Syria mission as West prepares to strike (Reuters)
• Emerging-Market Rout Intensifies on Syria Jitters (WSJ)
• Rebels Without a Leader Show Limit to U.S. Role in Syria War (BBG)
• Anger at IRS Powers Tea-Party Comeback (WSJ)
• China has much at risk but no reach in Middle East (Reuters)
• 'London Whale' Penalties Put at $500 Million to $600 Million (WSJ)
• U.S. lawmaker says 'compelling' evidence of Syrian chemical attack (Reuters)

 

After this sell-off we have a few stocks coming up against strong support and some breaking through it.

$GOOG should see strong support at $845, if it gets that low.  That will be a great point to buy for a move higher.

$CAT should find support at $82

$GS  the stock broke below a long term support line this week.

$AAPL after the almost 3% decline should see solid support at $480

$TSLA remains on track for a move over $200 this year

 

ANALYST TALK:

 

 
$TIF Tiffany downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at CLSA
CLSA downgraded Tiffany due to valuation. Note that Citigroup also downgraded shares this morning

$TIF Tiffany downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Citigroup downgraded Tiffany based on valuation. Price target raised to $88 from $84.

$TOL $LEN $MDC $DHI Homebuilder price targets lowered at KeyBanc
KeyBanc reduced its price targets on several homebuilders after the industry's orders fell back to seasonal levels in Q2. The firm is now modeling a lower absorption pace for the sector. It reduced its price target on Toll Brothers (TOL) to $40 from $43, on Lennar (LEN) to $41 from $49, on M.D.C. Holdings (MDC) to $39 from $46, and on D.R. Horton (DHI) to $23 from $30. The firm reiterates Buy ratings on all the stocks named, however

$TIVO TiVo positive trends likely to continue, says BMO Capital
After TiVo reported higher than expected Q2 service and technology revenue, BMO Capital expects growth in the company's revenue from service providers to continue to be strong over the next several quarters. The firm thinks the stock's valuation is "extremely compelling," and it reiterates an Outperform rating

Trades I am looking at today:

$SPY $164.50 weekly calls $.35
$GDX $29.50 weekly calls $.40
$GOOG $865 weekly calls $1.00

Futures are lower to start the trading day. Silver, Gold, Oil, Bonds are all seeing gains early gains.

"U.S. stock-index futures slid, signaling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will drop for a second day, as investors awaited data that may show consumer confidence fell and tension grew over possible military action in Syria.
Cisco Systems Inc. and Microsoft Corp. declined at least 1 percent in early trading, pacing losses in the biggest U.S. companies. J.C. Penney Co. (JCP) retreated 2.4 percent after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management LP sold its stake in the retailer for $504 million. Tiffany (TIF) & Co. rose 2 percent as second-quarter profit exceeded estimates.
Futures on the S&P 500 (SPX) expiring in September slid 0.6 percent to 1,644.5 at 7:48 a.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge fell 0.4 percent yesterday after Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. will hold Syria’s government accountable for using chemical weapons. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 79 points, or 0.5 percent, to 14,852 today.
The Syrian crisis “brings to light the Middle East situation and Egypt,” Nick Xanders, an equity strategist at BTIG Ltd. in London, said by phone. “U.S. data seems to be mixed and you look at the Fed minutes and they’re cautiously optimistic but we’re not going to see the high growth we saw in the past.”

Is today's dip a buying opportunity for stocks? I think it remains that was for the gold miners, $USO, and $POT $MOS $MON. I think when the dust settles on this Syria conflict that it will be a great time to buy the dip. But right now its tough to tell when that will be. Since the lows in 2009 the market has been incredibly resilient and each one of these "news" events was a great buying opportunity I don't think this time will be any different.

$TIF reported earnings this morning, the stock is up 2% and the $75 puts I bought yesterday are going to open at a severe discount. Earnings trades are very difficult to time, when they work like $ANF and $ARO last week, they can be very profitable, when they don't you can lose 75% or more on your trade.

We have earnings coming up this week from more retailers. Williams Sonoma, $GUESS, EXPRESS. I still like $EXPR for a pull back after earnings and I will let you know if I enter a trade.

Analyst:

$CRM Salesforce.com has some big deals coming up, says Piper Jaffray
After conducting checks with industry players, Piper Jaffray reports that Salesforce.com has some "big... .service cloud deals...on the horizon." Feedback on the company's marketing cloud operations are mixed, the firm stated, but it reiterates a $52 price target and Overweight rating on the shares

$MON Monsanto upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
UBS upgraded Monsanto based on the year-to-date sell-off in shares and expectations for stabilizing corn prices. Price target remains $110

$EMC EMC attractive at current levels, says Brean Capital
Brean Capital believes EMC is attractive at current levels citing further growth in license booking which will ease concerns about saturation in the core server virtualization business. Shares are Buy rated with a $31 price target

Trade I am looking at today:

$EXPR $17.5 sep puts $.45
$AAPL $510 weekly calls $1.00
$USO $37 weekly calls $.95

Welcome to the last week of August! Last week stocks zig zagged around and closed just a little higher for the week. The 3 hour halt of trading was met with more buying of stocks. That makes perfect sense in this centrally planned market when stocks rise when they should fall.

Think about it for a second. What is the value of any stock if you can't sell it? If you can't sell something what is its value? For 3 hours last week $AAPL was worth ZERO. $GOOG was worth ZERO. You couldn't sell them. Yet for some reason when the market reopened traders couldn't buy enough of them and stock closed at their highs. Remarkable! They shoudl schedule market halts throughout the year, it seems a lack of confidence in the system only makes trader/investors want to buy more. Again it makes perfect sense for the mentally unstable. For the rest of us we just have to understand what we are up against in this market. The central banks and powers that be run the show.

Last week we have some great earnings trades, I highlighted two of them last Sunday night. $ANF and $ARO. https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/anf-aro-back-to-the-future/

Last night I hosted the week ahead. Here is the link to that video: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/the-week-ahead-live-video-talked-about-tif-ges-spy-jcp-nflx-tlt-and-more/

Here are my thoughts:

Where is the market headed this week? https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/spy-where-is-the-market-headed-this-week/

Is This Retailer Ready To Tumble? https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/is-this-retailer-ready-to-tumble/

Where Is This Stock Headed Post Earnings? – Some Unusual Option Action On Friday https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/where-is-this-stock-headed-post-earnings-some-unusual-option-action-on-friday/

Jimmybob will be back on Wednesday, that should be good for the market this week!

We have earnings tomorrow before the bell from $TIF. I am leaning for a big move lower, there was heavy and unusual option activity on Friday for the stock. It should be interesting.

Analyst talk:

$MSFT Microsoft price target raised to $37 from $34 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital increased its price target on Microsoft after the company announced the resignation of CEO Steve Ballmer, as the firm thinks a new CEO could significantly boost the company. However, the firm keeps a Market Perform rating on the stock based on valuation

$BIG Big Lots upgraded at JPMorgan
As previously reported, JPMorgan upgraded Big Lots to Neutral from Underweight. The firm upgraded shares due to balanced risk/reward. Price target is $32.25

$TIVO TiVo is worth more than current valuation, says Brean Capital
Brean Capital believes TiVo is worth more than its current valuation citing its strong value proposition. its broad customer base, and a growing market opportunity. The firm notes the legal overhang as well as its uncertain relationship with its largest customer but reiterates its Buy rating and $14 price targe

$EXPR Express business model strongest among retailers, says Brean Capital
Brean Capital believes the Express business model is among the strongest in retailing and called the risk/reward impressive. The firm remains buyers ahead of earnings on Wednesday despite reducing estimates to reflect the promotional atmosphere. Shares remain Buy rated with a $28 price targe

$QIHU Qihoo 360 price target raised to $100 from $55 at Stifel
Stifel increased its price target on Qihoo after the company delivered beat and raise results. The firm thinks that the company's search revenue growth alone could double the size of the company and it keeps a Buy rating on the shares

$FL Foot Locker outlook still positive, says Piper Jaffray
After Foot Locker reported weaker than expected Q2 results, Piper thinks the stock's valuation is attractive, and believes the shares can return at least 20% over the next 12 months. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on the shares

Trades I am looking at today:

$PCLN $980 weekly calls $1.50 - I think this is the week the stock gets with striking range of $1,000
$EXPR $17.5 weekly puts $.60 - Break of support last week could be sign of more weakness to come
$CPB $45 September puts $.45 - Reports earnings Thursday before the opening bell