Tag Archives: Watchlist

12-19 Watchlist

 

Another great trading day yesterday as SAM continued to move, GS exploded higher, SODA tested 45, BBBY continued its move, MON broke 92.50, and seemed everything on the call side was up nicely. SINA had a consolidation day and I still like her for 52-53 this week. Also had CMG on the watchlist yesterday and we grabbed the 305s @ .50. The move the last few days has shocked even myself, as we are now a stones throw away from testing the 52 week highs, and getting closer to 150 on the SPY, like I have been talking about for months. Futures are green again this morning with some data out. Japan continued its recent market surge and the Nikkei closed over 10,000 for the first time since March. Couple that with the Shanghai index move over the past few weeks, and you have quite a rally over in Asia. Lets not get over confident about a huge rally coming over the next few trading days to close out 2013, but i also wouldn't rule it out. Seems the ones to watch right now are the oversold, shorted stocks that still have decent fundamentals. One of the reasons I like CMG, SODA, SAM, FSLR, and SINA.

Here are some of the Analysts ratings and remarks today:

(PNRA)

Panera Bread upgraded at Wedbush

As previously reported, Wedbush upgraded Panera Bread to Outperform from Neutral. The firm upgraded shares based on checks that indicate Q4 same-store-sales are tracking at the high end of 5%-6% guidance, comps sustainability, and low commodity impact. Price target raised to $190 from $160.

Bidu Initiated with Sell, $80 PT at Maxim Group

(AAPL)

Apple TV likely in time for 2013 holiday, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray believes Apple will launch a television in time for the 2013 holiday season and calls the stock a top pick for 2013. Piper believes investors that sold Apple shares to avoid a potential tax increase could return to the stock given the valuation. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on the name with a $900 price target.

(SBUX)

Starbucks checks show Verismo being well received, says Citigroup

Citigroup said its channel checks indicate Starbucks' new single-serve cappuccino machine Verismo is being well received by consumers. Citi believes the company's Q4-to-date U.S. same-store-sales are likely trending up 6%-8% compared to up 7% in Q3. Citigroup remains positive on shares of Starbucks with a Buy rating and $63 price target.

 

Currently hold CMG calls so on the fence around adding PNRA calls, although i think that stock should be $180+ right now. May look at calls at open. MLNX CEO on bloomberg yesterday and article out from Barclays defending the stock and keeping 140 PT, so like that one. Have had it on watch for days so this is the time I get in. Will also grab some BBBY calls at some point today for earnings.

Strikes on watch this morning

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
PNRA CALL $175.00 weekly 0.25
MLNX CALL $70.00 weekly 0.25
MLNX CALL $72.50 weekly 0.15
BBBY CALL $65.00 weekly 0.47
BBBY CALL $67.50 weekly 0.20

Lets have another great day!!

- Jimmybob

12-18 Watchlist

 

First off, the site is moving quickers as we upgraded our server, but we did have some temporary issues so apologize in advance for any troubles accessing the site. Now on to the fun:

What a great start to the week as a few of the plays on watch from last week continued to ramp higher, and others started their advance. SAM continues to move, marking its 3rd consecutive day of gains closing right near the high of day on huge volume. SODA finally broke the $43 resistance on amazing volume as well with NO NEWS. Seems to be more optimism on this fiscal cliff fiasco getting resolved so futures are solid green. If you were in the chatroom or on the week ahead class you heard quite a bit about japan and the oncoming currency wars coming in 2013. The clowns on tv are still talking about QE, and I think that term will be replaced by another coined phrase in regards to currency. We shall see.

 

Going forward I will try to include meaningful upgrades and downgrades, most from fly on the wall.

 

Here are todays:

 

GS (GS)

Goldman Sachs upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna

Susquehanna believes Goldman is well positioned to benefit in fixed income from potential rising rates due to a fiscal cliff resolution and expects the company to gain share in FICC due to reduced competition. Price target raised to $149 from $127.

 

AMZN (AMZN)

Amazon.com price target raised to $300 from $250 at RBC Capital

After conducting checks, RBC Capital believes that Amazon.com's investments in fulfillment centers could begin to slow in 2013. The firm maintains an Outperform rating on the stock.

 

AAPL reiteration from BofA : (AAPL)

Apple sell-off on supply chain concerns overdone, says BofA/Merrill

BofA/Merrill believes the sell-off in Apple due to supply chain concerns is overdone and that valuation is at trough levels. The firm trimmed estimates but notes supply chain adjustments are common and recent supplier production cuts come after peak production ramps and double ordering. Shares of Apple are Buy rated with a $720 price target.

 

Here are the positions I am looking at for open:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
CMG CALL $305.00 weekly 0.45
SINA CALL $52.50 weekly 0.21
MON CALL $92.50 weekly 0.13

 

I kept saying CMG would break out last week but that never happened. Yesterday was the start of what I think is a 2-3 day run for CMG over $300. Still love SINA for bounce over 50, and MON to $93 or so this week.

 

Lets have a great trading day!

 

- Jimmybob

12-17 Watchlist

 

Welcome to the last full week of trading for 2012. Futures are green this morning as optimism over the 'fiscal cliff' have eased concerns. Would expect a little more stability this week and a melt higher. There are quite a few earnings reports out this week, and they were reviewed last night in UPB's weak ahead. That video will be available later today for those that missed it.

Of course I love SODA and SAM this week, and hold calls. Like GS for a move in the next day or so from a channeling chart. Also like BBBY calls for earnings, and continued move higher on FSLR:

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
BBBY CALL $65.00 weekly 0.20
FSLR CALL $35.00 weekly 0.34
GS CALL $125.00 weekly 0.20

AAPL was downgraded by CITI with a $100 haircut on it's price target, but then Morgan Stanley came out with a positive note this morning based on the China sales data. AAPL was down to 498 in the am, but is now bouncing and holding green pre-market. SINA is getting a nice bid PM as well, holding above $47 after hitting a 52 week low last week.

Expect a text alert sometime this week.

Lets have a great week folks!

- Jimmybob

12-13-12 Watchlist

 

Another great day yesterday, although the end of day fade did take some bit out of the movers. NetFlix once again provided some nice returns. AIG fizzled while FSLR continued it's ascension. The FED announced that it will be buying 45 billion in MBS while also buying 40 billion in long term treasuries.  Only difference is this time they will not be selling the short term treasuries, so these will all be outright purchases... in essence they are printing money. Seemed the market liked the release, then sold off on Bernackes last release of 2012.

Jobless claims came in above expectations this morning but futures remain flat. S&P is up 6 days in a row, and last 12 times this has happened, the 7th day has been red: http://stocktwits.com/message/10987035

GOOG is ramping on the launch of google maps app back on the IPHONE. There were also a few upgrades today, and these are the two I am focused on:

Vera Bradley upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
Jefferies upgraded Vera Bradley after meeting with management citing valuation and overly negative investor sentiment. The firm expects Vera Bradley's top-line improvement to continue and raised its price target for shares to $35 from $22.

Monsanto checks show favorable mix, share gains, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray said its seed dealer checks indicate Monsanto is gaining market share in corn with a favorable mix shift toward higher priced offerings. Piper thinks Monsanto's Q1 results are likely to surprise positively and that management is likely to reiterate its mid-teens earnings growth guidance. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on the stock with a $116 price target.

Also, SAM reported nice earnings last night with a huge upward revision to guidance. Think the stock could go $135-140 today and will look for some calls. Heck, nothing beats trying to make money on Beer!

Some I am looking at for the open:

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
SAM CALL $135.00 DEC 0.25
VRA CALL $30.00 DEC 0.05
VRA CALL $25.00 DEC 0.50
MON CALL $92.50 DEC 0.30

 

Still love SODA here, have NFLX calls, as well as LNKD 120s, SHLD 45,46,47s, MOS DEC 60s, as well as FSLR 31.50/34/35 c.

Lets have another great day!!

- Jimmybob

12-12-12 Watchlist

 

Yesterday was another exciting day as the market ramped in the morning, only to fade near the eod on cliff jitters. I keep saying, I tune out that noise and will continue to do so. Some great plays yesterday from the watchlist as AIG and FSLR moved nicely. We do have the FOMC announcement in the afternoon and looking for TWIST to come to an end as well as announcement around the amount of purchases by the FED in the coming months. Unless there is some surprise  this should not have a great effect on the market.

Goldman came out with new targets on the ag sector, and MOS looks like it has the best chance on an upgrade to $68. Will look to get some calls at open(courtesy of UPB). I really like FSLR here and think she keeps ramping this week. Here are two bullish pieces out last night: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20121212PD203.html and http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-12/china-allocates-2-billion-of-solar-subsidies-xinhua-says.html . Grabbed the 31.50 calls @ .39/.42 yesterday and will try for some 32.50s at the open. If you followed the site, then you know I am the biggest bear out there on the solar sector. Right now it looks like its possible for a recovery, and FSLR looks to be the benefactor. Time will tell, but i do think FSLR has plenty of room to run.

Coverage was started on OPEN by JPM, so maybe get another bounce here. Still have 47.50/50C and will look to add some 50s if they are .25/.30. NFLX also upgraded at Morgan Stanley this morning, and maybe worth a short if it holds under 86 at open. Will post in chat if I see anything.

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price
FSLR CALL $32.50 DEC WKLY 0.24
MOS CALL $57.50 DEC WKLY 0.10
OPEN CALL $50.00 DEC 0.25

Lets have a great Wednesday! 12-12-12!!

- jimmybob