Tag Archives: Watchlist

August 23rd Watchlist

Stocks look to start Friday on a higher note. They have been rallying since the European open. There was positive data overseas last night. Bonds are drifting lower again, this will remain a volatile trade, but the trend is still lower. There will be rips along the way so be wary of that.

I like $PCLN for a bounce today. $PCLN calls and Fridays are two words that have worked in the past. CALLS/PUTS that expire today are VERY RISKY. You could lose 99% of your investment in minutes!! BE CAREFUL.

Yesterdays NASDAQ glitch, wow what an embarrassment. Investors didnt seem to care much as stocks rallied after trading resumed. Mikey great call letting everyone know about it right as it happened. He's the male version of Maria Bart. from CNBC.

Todays morning video --->>> https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/om-com-morning-market-video/

Yesterday I copied some of Sunday nights week ahead video to cover my call on $ARO and $ANF --->>>>

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/anf-500-option-trade-idea-presented-in-sunday-nights-live-week-ahead-webinar/

Thanks everyone who attended yesterdays live webinar!

In case your wondering, JB will be back on Wednesday.

Have a great Friday. See you Sunday night for the week ahead!

Analysts:

$ARO Aeropostale price target lowered to $6.50 from $8 at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley sees no clear growth prospects for Aeropostale and reiterates its Underweight rating

$JPM Keefe Bruyette analyzes JPMorgan break-up, but sees as unlikely
Keefe Bruyette believes the likelihood of a JPMorgan break-up is "quite low," but said talk of a potential break-up has led it to evaluate such a scenario. Keefe Bruyette's analysis indicates the sum of JPMorgan's individual business lines is valued at a 30% discount to similar companies, which it views as high, even with the litigation overhang. Further, if the bank were to be broken up, Keefe estimates that it could free up nearly $20B in Basel 3 capital. The firm has an Outperform rating on the stock

$GME GameStop price target raised to $57 from $50 at RW Baird
Baird raised its price target on GameStop following solid Q2 results and raised guidance. The firm cited expectations for a return to positive comp sales, improved visibility for a second half ramp, and continued product momentum. Shares are Outperform rated

$P Pandora remains compelling play on mobile, says JPMorgan
JPMorgan believes Pandora reported solid Q2 results and raised its price target for shares to $25 from $23. The firm says Pandora remains a "highly compelling pure-play on mobile" and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock

$GPS Gap reported strong results, says Stifel
After Gap reported in-line Q2 results but raised its FY13 EPS guidance, Stifel believes that customers are responding favorably to apparel at both Gap and Old Navy. The firm expects the company's earnings to jump 10%-15% annually for the next several years. Stifel keeps a Buy rating on the stock

$P Pandora price target raised to $27 from $24 at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray says Pandora's monetization is improving says the company's Q2 earnings outlook topped its estimate despite falling share of consensus. Piper upped its price target for shares to $27 and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock

$ANF Abercrombie & Fitch downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
Baird downgraded Abercrombie given the week Q2 report and guidance, and the highly promotional teen environment. Price target lowered to $42 from $59

$SPG Simon Property upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
BMO Capital upgraded Simon Property based on "compelling" relative valuation. Price target is $175

$ADSK Autodesk upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley
B. Riley upgraded Autodesk citing the solid Q2 report and business model transition. Price target raised to $42

Trade ideas:

PCLN $965 calls weekly $.50
$HLF sep 6 puts $.75
$TLT $101 sep monthly puts $1.00

August 22nd Watchlist

Stocks were up, down and all around yesterday before closing at lows of the session. Bonds sold off as well. Oh no, the taper is coming. Oh no its Cyrpus. The fiscal cliff. US debt downgrade. The sequester. Greece. Spain. Portugal. Italy. Greece. Its..... make up whatever name you want to call it. Its been a buying opportunity for 5 years. Every name, every dip, every concoction of a selling name, the Fiscal cliff should have been called the great buying opp. Cyprus? How about Buyprus? Anyone selling Cyrpus is down on their investment. Where do we go from here?

For one $ANF is getting tagged pre-market. In my LIVE sunday night video I talked about both $ANF and $ARO and said both would see sharp declines. Today $ANF is down 18% and $ARO has seen nothing but red since Sunday night. The $ANF trade will be up over 500% at the open. Tune in this Sunday night for the next week ahead.

$TGT puts worked out nicely. The analysts still seem to like this stock but after the 300% watchlist gain it might be time to lock in profits.

Live webinar today at 11pm open for all gold and above members:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/

I did quite a few videos this morning:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/august-22nd-morning-market-video/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/this-stock-has-two-gaps-to-fill/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/anf-500-option-trade-idea-presented-in-sunday-nights-live-week-ahead-webinar/

http://stocktwits.com/message/15344803#15344803

I think stocks will bounce into weeks end.

We have earnings tonight:

$ARO, $ANF, $ADSK, $GPS, $MRVL, $ROST, $P

Analyst action:

$ANF bercrombie & Fitch downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capita

$DMND Diamond Foods price target raised to $24 from $20 at DA Davidson
DA Davidson increased its target on Diamond Foods after the company announced the terms of its preliminary settlement, subject to court approval, of the private securities class action pending against it. The firm notes that the company also preannounced better than expected Q4 results, but it reiterates a Neutral rating on the stock

$HPQ HP investment thesis remains intact, says Brean Capital
Brean Capital believes their investment thesis on Hewlett-Packard remains intact following Q3 results. The firm said the tempered expectations for revenue growth were not materially incremental to their thesis and believes the free cash flow can fortify its balance sheet and be deployed for additional stock buybacks and strategic acquisitions. Shares are Buy rated with a $32 price targe

$TGT Target downgraded at ISI Group
As previously reported, ISI Group downgraded Target to Buy from Strong Buy. The firm downgraded shares due to softening free cash flow, subdued U.S. comps, and a weaker Canadian sales ramp. Price target is $70

$CRM Salesforce.com poised to have good 2H13, says Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo believes that Salesforce.com's close rates improved in its July quarter, and the firm thinks that the shares can rally into the end of the year on large deal signings in 2H13, It keeps an Outperform rating on the share

$MSFT Microsoft upgraded at Nomura
As previously reported, Nomura upgraded Microsoft to Buy from Neutral and initiated a $38 price target. The analyst sees a potential catalyst in shareholder activism following ValueAct's stake in the company and its agenda for change. They believe it might be better for Microsoft's board to address ValueAct's agenda, nominate a board seat to them, and work behind close doors rather than imitate proxy battle and increasing shareholder frustration

$TSLA Tesla initiated at Stifel
As noted earlier, Stifel initiated Tesla with a Hold. The firm believes that the company is one of history's best auto start-ups, but warns that it faces significant, under-appreciated risks. Moreover, Tesla has shown little evidence of customer retention or ability to sell cars at lower prices, the firm added.

Trades I am looking into today:

$VXX $15 puts $.06
$SPY $165 calls $.35
$GPS $43 calls $.50

August 21st Watchlist

Stocks looked strong yesterday until a late day pull back left a little sour taste in the bulls mouths. This morning futures are modestly lower but crawling back toward the break even point. $TGT just released earnings that initially was met with buying, and then selling which just about sums up where we are in this market. After hitting fresh all time highs investors seem to have varying opinions on where we are headed and it is being reflected in the way this market has been moving. It can make for a tough trade for out of the money options in most stocks when the market moves up then down then up then down without establishing any type of trend.

On my one year chart, the $SPY has not been this oversold since the November 2012 lows. Even June's swoon did not bring stocks down to the current oversold levels. In spite of today's negative skew I think we could see a bounce heading into the end of the week. I will be patiently looking into a call or two namely the $QQQ and $SPY. What I would like to see is a little dip after the open that will bottom around an hour into the trading day. That would be a nice set-up for a recovery today and some gains into weeks end.

However... The Federal Reserve has no liquidity operations scheduled for Wednesday.

This could keep the current bearish bias on stocks today, in spite of current oversold conditions.

Tomorrow I will be hosting a live webinar at 11am. We'll go over some charts, option strategies, and more. It will run 30 minutes to an hour. I will record it and post it on the blog/forum as well. Here is the link to sign up.

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/

The above link is where you will find the sign up details for live events that are being held.

The AMZN calls are running out of time, two days into the week and the stock is having trouble with the $289.50 level. Let's see if the 3rd time is the charm.

I own the $52 $JPM calls from yesterday. The were doing great until a late day slide took $JPM down almost 3/4%. I will hold these calls on a trade for a $JPM bounce unless it looks like the selling of the recent 7+days resumes.

$NFLX continues to shine. It's up again pre-market. A mere 10% away from new all time highs, to think this was a $50 stock last year when Jimmybob called for it's rally.

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/aapl-carl-icahn-follows-another-trade-idea-from-optionmillionaires/

Analysts Activity:

$AAPL Apple price target raised to $560 from $500 at UBS
UBS raised Apple FY14 and FY15 estimates based on higher iPhone 5C price and margin assumptions, and expects a China Mobile deal to be announced by year end. Shares are Buy rated

$MOS Mosaic downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at HSBC
$AGU
$POT

$GRMN Garmin upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
Goldman upgraded Garmin based on valuation and its entry into the action video camera market with the launch of VIRB and VIRB Elite action camera products. Price target is $39.

$DKS Dick's Sporting pullback a buying opportunity, says Citigroup
Citigroup views yesterday's pullback in shares of Dick's Sporting as a buying opportunity ahead of the company's investor day on September 18. Citi expects management to offer visibility into the next several years at the investor day and keeps a Buy rating on the stock. The firm, however, lowered its price target for shares to $54 from $58 citing the company's disappointing Q2 results

$V Visa weakness on court decision overdone, says Oppenheimer
After a judge overturned the Fed's card fee rule, Oppenheimer believes that investors have likely overestimated the worst-case impact of the decision on Visa. The firm believes that Visa's stock could rebound if the Fed appeals the decision. The firm thinks that the Fed may make such an appeal, and it keeps an Outperform rating on Visa

$HLF Herbalife upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus
Argus raised Herbalife estimates based on expectations earnings growth will remain strong and the company will accelerate share repurchases. The analyst raised 2013 EPS estimate to $5.15 from $4.80 and 2014 to $6.00 from $5.80 and upgraded shares to Buy and established a price target of $80

$BBY Best Buy price target raised to $40 from $35 at Jefferies
Jefferies raised its price target for Best Buy following the company's better than expected Q2 results and keeps a Buy rating on the stock. The firm believes Best Buy's turnaround plan is gaining more credibility as each quarter passes

Trade ideas I am looking at for today:

$TSLA $155 weekly calls $.85
$QQQ $75.50 calls $.40

A little on the home builders this morning:

Home building has hit a soft patch, government data indicate. The housing market faces a trio (at least) of headwinds: rising interest rates, lackluster employment gains and slow household formation.
"The more recent levelling out in new housing starts suggests residential investment may stagnate or even contract in the third quarter," analysts at Capital Economics, a research firm, wrote in a recent research note.
Indeed, investors are losing some confidence in the housing market. Shares of the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) have decreased 18% since mid-May, soon after mortgage rates started rising, while shares of the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) have declined 10%.
Last week the government reported that construction starts for new homes rose 5.9% in July to an annual rate of 896,000, shy of Wall Street's , after dropping in June. July's gain was entirely due to a rebound in volatile apartment starts, while new construction of single-family homes declined.
Do these results mark the end of the housing market's recovery? In short, no. After all, longer-term construction trends show impressive growth.
Housing starts in July were up 21% from the same period in the prior year. But it's worth keeping in mind that year-ago levels were quite low. Indeed, home construction is still far from the 1.7 million starts per year that economists say are needed to maintain current stock and meet demand for replacement and second homes.
But analysts expect builders to take some time to reach that level of construction. Housing starts may hit 1.2 million in 2014 as construction of single-family homes "finally begins a true recovery," according to a recent forecast from Michelle Meyer , senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch .
Part of the lag is due to slow job growth that keeps people from setting up new households, creating a drag on construction. Consider this: More than four years after the end of the Great Recession, there are two million fewer jobs in the U.S. than when the economic contraction began.
Last year the U.S. added about one million households, compared with an average of 1.25 million new households created every year over the decade leading up to the start of the recession.
"Household formation is severely lagging behind the rest of the housing recovery," Jed Kolko , chief economist at real estate site Trulia , wrote in a recent blog post.
Because of below-average formation, Kolko estimates that there are about 2.4 million "missing" households. That's a lot of pent-up demand, but it will take time and a positive outlook for people to risk establishing a new home. As the labor market improves, so, too, could household formation, according to a recent Federal Reserve study.
But so far this year, household formation has been weaker than economists would like.
"In order to match last year's rate of 1 million, we would need to see a rapid acceleration in the second half of the year and/or revisions to the first half," Meyer wrote. "While we expect a pickup over the rest of the year amid stronger economic growth, it suggests some caution for housing starts."

August 20th Watchlist

Stocks are higher to start the trading day. They were higher yesterday as well before a slow, deliberate melt occurred throughout the session and when the bell rang stocks found themselves just off their lows of the day. Bonds sold off again and the volatility continues to spook the market.

Today bonds have rebounded and we should also look for interest rate sensitive stocks to bounce as well. Earnings reports this morning have sent $HD and $BBY higher early on. $AAPL continues to see buyers, in spite of yesterdays late day pull back.

If stocks are to mount a rebound financials will need to participate. $JPM and $GS were down sharply yesterday and these two stocks could offer a nice trade for a bounce as this week progresses.

$FB and $P continue to see positive analyst action and both stocks could see further gains as price momentum continues.

$AMZN was a great trade to start the day as the $295 calls came down to a great purchase price, then rocketed over $1.40 over 200%, only to see the stock/options fall in value as we melted lower. I sold out to get my cost on the trade and still riding free my remaining options. It is only Tuesday and the stock still is attractive for a rebound.

Analyst Notes:

$PNRA Panera Bread downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Jefferies downgraded Panera Bread with a $195 price target on concerns the company's investments could pause its momentum

$FB Facebook initiated with a Buy at Janney Capital
Target $50

$QIHU Qihoo 360 initiated with a Neutral at Goldman
Target $66.

$RIG Transocean downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
UBS has concerns near-term about the substantial amount of newbuild rigs that will be delivered and the impact on dayrate growth in the floater market. The firm expects modest multiple pressure for the group and as result downgraded Diamond Offshore (DO), Ensco (ESV), Noble Corp. (NE), and Transocean (RIG) to Neutral from Buy. Transocean price target lowered to $49 from $63.

$ROST Buckingham sayd to take profits ahead in Ross Stores ahead of Q2 report
Buckingham recommends taking profits in Ross Stores ahead of the Q2 report given valuation, high expectations for robust comps, and softening consumer spending and traffic. Shares are Neutral rated with a $63 price target

$URBN Urban Outfitters strength likely to continue throughout 2013, says Stifel
After Urban Outfitters reported higher than expected EPS, Stifel expects customers to continue to respond favorably to the company's merchandise. The firm remains upbeat on the company's longer term outlook and keeps a Buy rating on the shares

$TGT Target downgraded at Susquehanna
As previously reported, Susquehanna downgraded Target to Neutral from Positive. The firm downgraded shares due to valuation and concerns of softer same-store-sales issues for the balance of the year. The analyst's concerns stem from recent comments by retailers that indicate more cautious spending patterns by consumers, lower NRF forecasts for back-to-school spending, low levels of inflation, and reduced selling days in the holiday season. The firm's price target is $73 with downside risk level of $55

$P Pandora initiated with a Buy at B. Riley
Target $26

Trade Ideas I am looking at today:

$TGT $67.50 Puts $.60
$Z $80 calls $1.00
$JPM $52 calls $.45

August 19th Watchlist

Stock futures are flat. Overnight bonds sold off but currently have recovered most of their losses. The dollar is also flat. Essentially a boring start to the week, but that should change. BONDS are what everyone is watching and if they start to fall off the cliff, like I think they eventually will, it could further spook the markets. Gold and silver remain in recovery mode, as are the gold miners. Let's see how long this lasts.

If you did not join the week ahead live webinar last night, here is the link for it. We covered stocks, bonds, earnings, and chart questions:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/the-week-ahead-live-webinar/

I also recorded two videos, one on $AMZN and the other on $TLT

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/chart-videos-amzn-tlt/

Some interesting earnings reports this week, $HPQ, $BBY, $ARO, $ANF, $JCP

On my medium term charts, the market looks more oversold then it did on the last drop in June. I think we could see a nice bounce this week. Everyone is seemingly bearish after last weeks decline.

Analysts Action:

$FB Facebook price target raised to $45 from $34 at Evercore
Evercore said Facebook reiterated its Overweight rating on Facebook based on ad targeting improvements, attractive ad pricing, and growing user engagement. Shares are Overweight rated

$P Pandora price target raised to $25 from $20 at Needham
Needham raised its price target for Pandora to reflect its FY15 estimates for the company and keeps a Buy rating on the stock. Needham expects Pandora to see "rapid margin expansion" in its core streaming business.

$HPQ Hewlett-Packard still undervalued, says Brean Capital
Brean Capital believes Hewlett-Packard's valuation has still not caught up with the company's improvements in free cash flow and earnings it has been able to generate and expected to sustain. Shares are Buy rated with a $32 price targe

$INTC Intel upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray upgraded Intel to Neutral citing limited downside risk given the company's 4.1% dividend yield and expectations for a modest corporate refresh cycle for PCs. Piper raised its price target for shares to $22 from $20

$GME GameStop price target raised to $50 from $38 at RW Baird
Baird raised its price target on GameStop ahead of Q2 earnings. The firm cited key milestones which are expected in the second half of the year including next generation gaming consoles. Shares are Outperform rated.

Trades I am looking at today:

$ANF Sept. $43 puts .90
$AMZN $295 weekly calls .50
$BBY $29 weekly puts $.70