Tag Archives: Watchlist

2-7-2013 Watchlist

 

 

It was a buy the f&^&^ dip yesterday, right down to the closing bell as the market squeezed out a gain, after being down .5%+ early in the morning. The higher we go, the more folks will be calling a top. Time will tell, but i still think we are a few months off from that. The  Bank of England Governor in waiting was doing some testimony today that helped prop the pound and boost futures. There are also notes and comments out from the ECB so may move markets a little. Same store sales numbers come out for january on retailers, so keep an eye on Macy's, JCP, Kohls, and others. Once again, I think the path of least resistance is up, and the VIX will be under $10 very soon.

 

We have earnings tonight with LNKD and CSTR being the headliners. Those will be the ones on the watchlist. DDD was great yesterday and looks good this morning making up for the PCLN and GMCR calls.

 

Here are some analyst changes this morning:

 

Green Mountain margins offset slower sales growth, says Lazard Capital

Lazard Capital says Green Mountain's better than expected margins in Q1 more than offset the company's slightly lower sales growth. The firm raised its price target for shares to $58 from $56 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

Yelp price target raised to $27 from $24 at Cantor

Cantor increased its price target on Yelp after the company reported Q4 results that the firm views as strong. The firm sees several upcoming positive catalysts for the stock and maintains a Buy rating.

 

Goldman Sachs well-positioned, says Bernstein

After meeting with Goldman Sachs' CFO, Bernstein reports that the CFO is "cautiously optimistic about the 2013 operating environment." Bernstein is more optimistic about Goldman's outlook, as the firm thinks that the company is leveraged to an early stage rebound. Bernstein maintains a $170 price target and Outperform rating on the stock.

 

Visa downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo downgraded Visa citing valuation following the company's Q1 results. The firm raised its price target range for shares to $160-$165 from $150-$155.

 

BlackBerry upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo upgraded BlackBerry after transferring analyst coverage on expectations the company's gross margin will improve as BB10 device sales ramp. Wells says BlackBerry shares have generally trended in the direction of gross margin. The firm raised its price target range for shares to $19-$20 from $11-$13.

 

I plan on looking for some FEB 16th calls for LNKD as well as some FEB 16th from CSTR. I may play NFLX calls as well betting on a move higher if CSTR smashes.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
LNKD CALL $150.00 FEB 16th 0.28 0.25
LNKD CALL $155.00 FEB 16th 0.14 0.10
CSTR CALL $62.50 Feb 16th 0.45 0.40

 

 

Lets have a great day!!

 

- Jimmybob

2-6-2013 Watchlist

 

Two big up days, one big down day past three sessions. Everyone and his brother, sister, mother, father, friends, and anyone else with a mouse/pen/blog are calling for some type of pullback soon. Some say its the huge insider selling recently... well duh stocks are at 5 year highs.( http://www.marketwatch.com/story/insiders-now-aggressively-bearish-2013-02-06?dist=beforebell ) Some say its the triple top coming from 2007 and 2000 highs. Other say its overall bullish sentiment of the market. Talks of Europe are starting to get back into the headlines with Spain corruption issues and more problems in Italy. 10yr bond yields have spike the last few sessions and folks are thinking we may have the same pullback we had in 2011/2012 in March. Gosh, sounds to me like its time to go puts... wouldn’t it. But once again, its the same old tune, and we saw how it worked out everytime since march of 2009.

 

This market will not go down until all the sheep are on the corral, with the gate shut, and all the herders out of the corral counting their loot. The VIX crossed the upper bollie on monday, and as I spoke about on the last week ahead webinar, the market reversed.

 

Futures have slipped this morning, and we shall see if we are in for another 3 digit move in the DOW. Its possible, but I think the trend will still be higher.

 

Nice earnings by EXPE yesterday, but it’s not moving the stock as much as I would like. I still think it will see over 70 today, and like PCLN to get over $710. DDD announced a 3 for 2 stock split which should help squeeze some shorts. We grabbed the 70 Feb 16th calls yesterday and may look to add some higher strikes.

 

CMG is getting positive comments from analysts but is down a few dollars pre-market.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes this morning:

 

 

 

Chipotle price target raised to $334 from $318 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray said it remains confident in Chipotle's long-term growth profile following the company's Q4 results. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on the stock.

 

McGraw-Hill upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James

Raymond James upgraded McGraw Hill citing valuation and views legal headlines as only noise and sees no risk to the business. Price target remains $62.

Expedia gaining market share in hotel bookings, says Cantor

After Expedia reported stronger than expected Q4 results, Cantor believes that room night growth acceleration should help the company achieve healthy double digit revenue growth in the near and medium term. The firm raised its price target on the stock to $77 from $70 and reiterates a Buy rating.

Expedia downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital

RBC Capital downgraded Expedia given peak valuation and fundamentals following the Q4 report. Price target raised to $73 from $70.

Expedia price target raised to $80 from $67 at Benchmark Co.

Benchmark Co. raised its price target for Expedia citing the company's strong Q4 results and keeps a Buy rating on the stock. The firm believes investors should be willing to accept near-term margin compression from higher spending for an anticipated increase in global market penetration and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

Expedia price target raised to $80 from $70 at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank notes Expedia posted its highest hotel room night growth rate in several years in Q4. The firm raised its price target for shares to $80 following the results and says Expedia remains its preferred online travel agency stock.

 

Here is what I am looking at for the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
DDD CALL $70.00 Weekly 0.20 0.30
DDD CALL $75.00 FEB 16th 0.20 0.20
GMCR CALL $65.00 Feb 16th 0.27 0.25

 

 

Stay tuned to chat and twitter for any updates to my trades. Lets have a great day!

 

- Jimmybob

February 4th Watchlist

Futures are lower today to the tune of .4%.  With the way the markets have been trading lately a .4% decline could be constituted as a market crash.  I am surprised the futures market has not been halted.  Then again we did have the Superbowl last night and the unexpected power outage added a good 40 minutes on to the end of the game.  The interns at the FED who hit that big green "buy buy buy" button are probably just wiping the crust out of of their hung over eyes right now.

What does this all mean?  It means we stick to whats been working for many moons now.  Buy the dip.

A big headline for the WSJ this weekend "Stocks Draw Biggest since 1996"

The first 4 weeks of January saw massive $$$ Inflows into stocks over $34.2 billion.  Thats 2x as much as last January  AND more than the net inflow we had in all of 2012 combined!  What is that telling us?  Money continues to flow into stocks.  We saw stocks rise the last few years with everyone on the sidelines and with money flowing in like we havent seen in over 16 years, well its tough not to at least dip your toes in the water.

Goldman Sachs says this earnings season has been one of the best to be a call buyer in 40 years!  If your trading options its best to skew your perpective to the call side.  We will get declines but the trend remains up and a .4% decline for stocks is just a cheaper chance to get in for a continued move to all time highs.

Here we sit just 1.1% away from a new all time high on the DJIA and 3.4% away on the S&P.

I will be general as far as contracts and price but this is what I will be looking at today:

BIDU $97.50 Puts for er's tonight

YUM $70 calls for earnings

UBS $17 calls for er's tom am

CMG  $260 puts for er's tom night

CME $60 calls for er's tom night

PNRA $180 calls $150 puts for er's

DIS $57.5 calls $52.50 puts for er's

MAKO $12.50 calls for hopefully .10 prob .15

Happy trading!

1-31-2013 Watchlist

 

Yesterdays trading action bucked the recent trend, as the market faded into the close. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little pullback the next day or so, which would be healthy for further upside.

 

Earnings came out for FB after hours and beat expectations, but the stock sold off on cost concerns. That doesn’t bode well for LNKD but we shall see. WHR and DNKN reported this morning. Both missed revenues and beat EPS, with WHR raising full year EPS guidance. That should do well for WHR stock price, and think she goes 115+ today. DNKN raised it’s divy and should see a move higher today.

 

We have jobless claims this morning, so may help to give the market some direction early.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes this morning:

 

 

)

Facebook downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital

BMO Capital downgraded Facebook citing lack of catalysts, weaker worldwide price per ad data, and valuation. Price target remains $32.

 

Citrix Systems upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

BofA/Merrill upgraded Citrix citing strong bookings growth and the rapidly growing Cloud and Mobil infrastructure business. Price target raised to $84 form $74.

 

Stanley downgraded priceline.com due to increased competition and higher customer acquisition costs. Price target lowered to $730 from $750.

VELT)

Velti downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig-Hallum

Craig-Hallum downgraded Veltl given near-term EBITDA pressures following management commentary. Price target lowered to $4 from $12.

 

 

 

CMG continues to trade flat after mondays run up and the calls will start to go to zero the closer we get to friday if it stays flat. I still love SODA, SAM, and SHLD into next week.

 

I am holding too many positions so will not be looking for anything yet for the open. Will be watching MA, PCLN, CTXS for possible opportunities to go long via calls. Also, I will not be around for the first few hours today in chat.

 

Lets have a great day.

1-30-2012 Watchlist

 

Another day, another multi-year. high for the markets. This morning we have ADP numbers, where they beat expectations. 4Q GDP was -.10%, the first time it was negative since the recession. Futures are selling off on the news but I think once again, this is just another opportunity to buy calls.

 

AMZN reported earnings after hours that missed REV and EPS expectations as well as an outlook that was below estimates, but margins improved better then expected and the stock is up $20+ pre-market. After the bell we have FB, which i think will smash estimates, and should help push LNKD to a new all-time high tomorrow.

 

SODA was the play yesterday, and it did faded at the open, but closed flat. CNBC had the SODA president on Fast Money to explain the Superbowl fiasco. He was able to hint at a strong Q and squash concerns over CBS not approving it’s commercial. The stock is up nearly $2 pm, and think it can hit all-time highs in the next few sessions.

 

Below are some of the analysts changes. Amazon had a boatload of upgrades so didnt post them below. Most are price targets of 330 or so.

 

(PCLN)

priceline.com initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant Capital

Target $870.

 

Salesforce.com price target raised to $200 from $180 at Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer increased its price target on Salesforce.com as the firm believes that the company's customers have begun using its products as a data integration solution. The firm expects this trend to accelerate as large companies utilize the cloud to a greater extent and it maintains an Outperform rating on the shares

 

(ICE)

IntercontinentalExchange upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ISI Group

 

(ADSK)

Autodesk upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush

Wedbush upgraded Autodesk due to improving macroeconomic conditions and continued improvement in U.S. architectural activity. Price target raised to $45 from $34. theflyonthewall.com

 

Fossil downgraded to Sell from Hold at Brean Capital

Brean Capital lowered Fossil estimates below the Street given concerns that China is slowing and Europe's domestic markets remain under pressure. Price target is $85.

 

I will be holding my core positions of SAM, LNKD, SHLD, CMG, BPT, TZOO, and SODA.

 

I may look to get two positions for tomorrow earnings and here are the strikes:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WHR CALL $125.00 FEB 0.31 0.30
DNKN CALL $40.00 FEB 0.25 0.25

 

 

Both stocks are up over the past few months. DNKN has seem many upgrades, but does have a high PE ratio and is near all-time highs. The numbers look pretty easy so think they will beat and stock will near $40. WHR has been on a tear and Sandy should help #’s and complete a blow quarter. Don’t fight the trend and I think WHR breaks into irrational area around $115-120. These are both risky plays as the stocks can be considered priced for perfection already, meaning misses will result in the calls opening at $0.

 

I will post the trades but please dont follow me blindly!

 

I will be holding most of my positions but may lock in some LNKD calls if they go green today.

 

Lets have a great day today!

 

Also:

 

Dont forget about LeeMalones class tomorrow at 4:30pm. They are always great, make sure you register here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/

 

- Jimmybob