Here we are at another inflection point for the market. I thinkit could resolve either way short term, however longer term I think record highs are coming later this year. Again, like at the start of the year when we were coming out of the nasty pull back into the Christmas Eve lows, not many are expecting more highs. And perhaps calling for more highs will finally be the wrong thing to say. However every single time the market has fallen it has ultimately hit new record highs. Every single time.
Saying new record highs are coming.... it's like saying a dark stormy sky is going to bring rain. Yet it seems so many like to focus on the rain rather than a market that continues to rally in spite of all the rain.
Yes we know all the negatives out there. This market moved to its latest record highs in the face of this still unresolved trade war. Calls for a recession are very loud. The yield curve inversion cries were a lot louder than the record high stock market prices of just a few weeks ago.
Amazing how that works. We had the quietest rally to record highs... no cheering... aside from a few widely followed twitter accounts.... and more negativity into those highs than anything else.
The yield curve inversion drew far more attention than the record highs. What does that tell me? A lack of participation. We know the robots are busy buying. We know the share buyback machines are buying. But this isn't your internet bubble record high. The record highs from a few weeks ago were the tree falling in the woods record highs.
And yet here were are again. Negativity at a fever pitch. The same bears who were saying the FED was stuck, are saying the FED is stuck with little wiggle room to keep the asset price inflation scheme alive.
Why do I have the feeling this is going to end just like all the other times when we had a similar pull back amid tremendous uncertainty.
With that being said, yes I think new record highs are coming. I think there is a good chance... just like earlier this year when the market hit a speed bump, that the record highs come far quicker and sooner than almost anyone expects it to.
But that's just me. I could be wrong.... however saying the stock market is going to head to record highs has been the right thing to say for a long time now. And until that trend changes, I'll keep riding it.
Trend-line resistance lies near $SPY $305. Strong support at $282 and then $277.