The SPY is still in wait and see mode, just as it has been for a few months. It seems to me that we are going to stay in this range for at least another week. Why? The fed meeting is the week of the 15th, and I do not see anyone putting on big bets before that meeting. There is no reason for us to breakout (move above 214) or breakdown (below 210) before seeing the result of that meeting. Therefore, I am putting on a neutral trade.
The trade is a June 12th SPY 206/211/216 put fly (small bearish bias). I paid $1.88 for this trade. This means that I am profitable between 208-214 next week. I like the odds of this trade working out because the spy has not been out of this range in a few months (has never been above 214). In a market that is as confusing as ever (at least in my short career) I think this trade makes sense. If we see a big move into weeks end I will probably add hedges or close the position.
A few technical notes on SPY: The MACD is currently negative which means that rallies are most likely to be sold than bought. The RSI is at 53, this does not give you a clue as this RSI is neutral (not overbought or oversold). The 50dma is at $210 (below the current stock price) which is a bullish sign. I expect any dips to be contained at 210, for the time being.
$SPY been such a grind, well contained, would lend to more of the same.
I think barring something unexpected, or a really high or low jobs number, people are in wait and see mode until the Fed.
great way to trade it.