September 21st, 2022 Watch List

Stocks fell on Tuesday, giving back Monday's gains, with the S&P closing down 1.1% as Yields rose to decade highs. Asia market closed lower overnight while Europe indexes are mixed this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open, the Dollar, Oil, and Gold are higher while Yields are lower.

And this is what UPB is reading this morning:

Stocks chopped around in a bumpy session on Tuesday, trying to find a bid in the afternoon but failing to reverse losses to close down over 1%. Today is one of the most anticipated Fed Statements and Press Conferences in recent memory and would expect there will be some wide market gyrations at 2pm and into the presser. A .75% hike with some hawkish commentary and maybe markets find some support. A 1% hike and markets maybe rally. Anything less than that.. ie .50% hike and the market will be pressured. The good news is that the $380 handle on the SPY has held so far. If the Fed can appease the markets with a hike and comments at least at expectations, maybe we can get a bounce back to $390 or so. If not, we break $380 and have to think the June lows will be breached. If that $380 fails to hold I will add some TZA calls:

I added TWLO calls yesterday. It was a great trade for me last week and thought its relative strength despite the market weakness was a good sign. The stock tested the $77s before closing in the $74s. Still think it can break into the $80s and may actually look to add some calls into next week if the market is well bid after the Fed:

It was an annoying session for ROKU, with the stock rallying into the green after the open, only to give it back and them some to close under $70. Still think this is a great play on DIS and NFLX putting ads on their platforms and it is only a matter of time before the company is acquired. Will be looking to add some more calls to play for a move higher in the coming weeks:

ICPT announced more debt restructuring after the close yesterday and the company is now debt positive... ie. has more cash than debt. A few months ago the bears would say ICPT will need to do another offering, now it is the complete reverse with the company saying they have plenty of cash to fund operations going forward. A nice read here yesterday on NASH from the WSJ:

Still think ICPT is front and center in the space and will get some positive FDA news in the next 6 months or so. Will continue to hold my October strikes and may start looking at 2023 calls:

CMG received a price target upgrade this morning. Both CMG and WING look like solid plays on food inflation and think both can perform well even if we are in the midst of a recession. Will be eyeing some weekly strikes on CMG today for a move to $1750+ along with some calls on WING to play for a move to $160 in the next week or two:


CI still basing here. Once it gets some mojo $295+ comes quick. Still on watch here:

Here are the analyst changes of note for today:

Chipotle price target raised to $1950 from $1850 at Cowen
Cowen analyst Andrew Charles raised the firm's price target on Chipotle to $1950 from $1850 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst met with management and came away with greater confidence in Chipotle's ability to gain share near-term despite a cautious outlook across the sector given the industry wide fast casual slowdown in June and July, while longer term he thinks the Street seems to be mismodeling 2024 restaurant margin
PetMed Express transferred with a Hold at Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Corey Grady took over lead coverage of PetMed Express and maintains a Hold rating on the shares with an unchanged $20 price target. Grady expects partnership & M&A announcements over the coming quarter, but says the key to stock performance will be a sustained recovery in new customer growth, which could take time given PetMed's "challenged competitive position.
PetIQ price target lowered to $21, coverage transferred at Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Corey Grady keeps a Buy rating on PetIQ shares and lowered the firm's price target to $21 from $28 as he took over lead coverage of the stock. A weak flea & tick season is compounding the drag from investments into new product launches this year, but he remains a believer in the business model and the company's owned-brand opportunity, calling the current discount seen in the stock's valuation "extreme.
Stitch Fix price target lowered to $7 from $10 at Evercore ISI
Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney lowered the firm's price target on Stitch Fix to $7 from $10 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares following the company's "Miss and Lower" quarterly report. Mahaney believes it is clear that Stitch Fix has matured out its core Fix segment and is facing challenges expanding into "on demand retail," adding that he thinks the company will need "a lot of improvements" across product, sourcing, distribution, and marketing to resume growth and that he is "materially lowering" his estimates following last night's report
Carrier promotions give Apple iPhone users impetus to upgrade, says BofA
BofA analyst Wamsi Mohan said "attractive" U.S. carrier incentives allow Apple's (AAPL) iPhones to be more affordable in the current inflationary environment and create an impetus for users to upgrade their devices. The analyst, who adds that trade-in promotions suggest that the carriers prefer customers to upgrade their iPhones roughly every two to four years, expects T-Mobile (TMUS), Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) to continue with aggressive deals as they compete to gain market share. Mohan reiterates a Buy rating and $185 price target on Apple shares
Barclays upgrades Arista to Overweight on sustainable growth
Barclays analyst Tim Long upgraded Arista Networks to Overweight from Equal Weight with an unchanged price target of $131. The analyst believes Arista's mid-teens growth rate should be sustainable for a few more years. The company has been successful in diversifying its customer base, while its routing portfolio continues to improve, Long tells investors in a research note. The analyst adds that the rapid growth in Arista's cognitive campus workspaces has been "impressive."

And here is what I am watching today: CMG, WING, CI, ICPT, APRN, HUM, ZS, TZA, U, SPOT, TWLO, PTCT, and SAGE.

Let's have a great day!


JimmyBob (Scott)has been trading equities for over 15 years, a majority of which were OTC micro-cap stocks. He started trading high risk stock options over the past 7 years, and has proven winning trades in excess of 15,000%.

As one of the Co-Founders of, Scott enjoys sharing his knowledge with other investors through timely blog posts, daily watch lists in the forum, weekly webinars, and helpful advice within the chatroom.

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