Welcome to September. Markets fell for the 4th session in a row, with the S&P ending Wednesday down .78%. Asia market tumbled overnight while Europe indexes are in the red this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, the Dollar and Yields are higher while Oil and Gold are lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-90/
Markets opened higher for the second session in a row on Wednesday, only to give it all back and then some. This morning weekly jobless claims came in lower than expected, pressuring futures after the data. Tomorrow we get one of there most important jobs reports in recent memory. It is tough to get bullish in the face of all these negative catalyst, but playing the downside can be difficult with all these bounces. If the jobs report comes in hotter than expected, things will get rocky and the SPY may test the mid-low $380s. If the number is weaker than expected, then maybe this bloodbath that started with Powell at Jackson Hole can end and stocks can find some footing and head back over $400. I was eyeing TZA calls yesterday, with the plan to add some on a break of $35, but it couldn't hold for most of the afternoon so I passed. This morning TZA is over $36. Not going to chase but will use as a hedge if markets test that $390 handle:
ICPT recouped some of its losses from Tuesday, closing up over 6%. A good sign it held that $16.30 area. Would want to see that hold again today and think a move back over $19 comes soon:
ULTA closed slightly green yesterday despite the market weakness. A risky play, but if markets rally tomorrow could see a move past $430. May look at some speculative calls to play for a move over $430 tomorrow:
CMG bull-flag is still in play, but it won't matter if markets continue to fall. Will be watching the $1590 area for support today and may look to add some speculative calls into tomorrow:
A disappointing day for APRN, as the stock tumbled out of the gate and closed down over 3%. Still setting up nicely here. I am going to try and put together a solid DD post tonight or tomorrow... it is a great story and think it is flying under the radar somewhat... ie. it is getting attention just as a meme/short play as opposed to a growing company in a sector with huge future growth:
MDB reported a mixed bag of earnings after the close yesterday and is getting punished this morning. It always seems to post some wide swings after earnings so will be watching potentially for a bounce if $265 holds:
Still eyeing PANW, EVH, and LULU as well - though LULU will be tough to trade into earnings tonight.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Seagate price target lowered to $88 from $105 at Northland |
| Northland analyst Gus Richard lowered the firm's price target on Seagate to $88 from $105 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares, stating that he is "taking a meat cleaver" to his estimates after the company pre-announced yesterday it is decreasing fiscal Q1 revenue guidance by $400M to $2.1B. While he does not expect the company to revisit peak earnings "over the next 8 quarters," Richard continues to see "an insatiable demand for storage" and contends that Seagate will recover from the downturn |
| Okta price target lowered to $100 from $140 at Truist |
| Truist analyst Joel Fishbein lowered the firm's price target on Okta to $100 from $140 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The company's Q2 results were "strong", but the weakening macroeconomic environment and sales integration challenges due to its Auth0 acquisition have led its management to reduce its calculated billings guidance for FY23 by $140M, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the implied growth of 19% y/y is down from 27%. Fishbein further cites Okta's commentary regarding sales cycles increasing, especially in Europe |
| Pure Storage price target raised to $35 from $33 at Morgan Stanley |
| Morgan Stanley analyst Meta Marshall raised the firm's price target on Pure Storage to $35 from $33 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares after the company outperformed expectations on strength in the commercial and public sector. While the macro overhang leaves her on the sidelines, Marshall said she was encouraged by Pure's combination of growth and profitability, particularly as confidence in second half pipelines grow |
| Okta price target lowered to $94 from $110 at BMO Capital |
| BMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman lowered the firm's price target on Okta (OKTA) to $94 from $110 but keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q2 results and guidance. The analyst says he was concerned heading into the earnings call regarding the medium- and longer-term impact of Microsoft (MSFT) on the employee side of the business. Bachman also notes that Okta's Customer Identity and Access Management was "surprisingly weak", though he remains positive on the stock and views the company's sales execution as a "fixable issue" |
| Stifel trims MongoDB price target to $320, says commentary creates opportunity |
| Stifel analyst Brad Reback lowered the firm's price target on MongoDB to $320 from $340 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported Q2 results that exceeded expectations, but management highlighted that consumption trends among smaller customers, especially "digitally native" organizations, moderated more than expected. Given the company expects these consumption headwinds to persist into the second half, management did not fully flow-through the Q2 upside into second half revenue estimates, noted Reback, who sees these consumption trends as temporary and expects usage to rebound as the economy normalizes, leading him to view the consumption commentary as creating an "opportunity" for investors |
| Scotts Miracle-Gro price target lowered to $75 from $85 at Wells Fargo |
| Wells Fargo analyst Chris Carey lowered the firm's price target on Scotts Miracle-Gro to $75 from $85 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The analyst notes CFO Cory Miller is departing the company and Scotts Miracle-Gro lowered its free cash flow outlook for full year 2022 with one quarter remaining |
And here is what I am watching today: MDB, APRN, ULTA, CMG, TZA, EVH, PANW, SAGE, TWLO, SPOT, ROKU, NFLX, ICPT, and SPLK.
Let's have a great day!
-JB