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Wild Ride

November 5, 2011 uranium-pinto-beans Leave a comment

 

Since the plunge in late July to August, this "market" has been nothing short of a wild ride.  Even Bernacke can't seem to assuage investors as every headline out of Europe garners some type of over-reactive response from market participants.    Then again I think much of these violent swings are due to government intervention.  Absent government intervention we would probably already be on our road to growth.   We would have purged the system.  The risk takers who created this mess would be gone, and the market would allow the pieces to be picked up by those who played it smart.  That is the premise of the market.  Supply and demand.  Once the goverment meddles with it, it just isn't a market anymore, hence the wild ride we've seen since QE2 ended.

The FED is still meddling, and in the press conference this week Bernanke all but assured QE3, which accounts for the rabid buying we see on any and every dip this market takes.  The expectations world wide, by every investor is that the markets will always be backstopped by the central banks.  There is no risk.  The risk since March 2009 is missing out on the next centrally planned run up in assets, most notably equities.   Bernanke was telling everyone this week to be careful with your money, yet he's forcing EVERYONE into risky assets.

Ben Bernancke makes Corzine look like a genius  and I do believe down the road, years from now, people will wonder how we ever believed a word he said.  A red cape is all he needed for his devil costume this Monday.

As far as this weeks wild ride....  its great for options traders and I don't see this slowing down anytime soon.

 

Up, Up, and Away

November 4, 2011 uranium-pinto-beans Leave a comment

 

We gapped up this morning on more Greek "news", then fell over $1.80 on the SPY, before embarking on a breathtaking ramp, that took us back over $126 on the SPY.  This rally continues to defy conventional wisdom.  There is still turmoil in Europe.  Greece might not remain in the Eurozone.  But at this stage, what this market is telling you, is that there is no where else to put your money.  The FED is forcing everyone into risky assets and thus far it seems to be working.

 

Currently there is a good chance we see $128.50 on SPY to fill the gap.  Until the markets come to their senses the bulls really have this market by the horns.  Most importantly tomorrow we have the jobs report.  A great figure could further embolden the bulls, while a bad one could give the bears a reason to get back into this "market"

 

Big Ben and the possibility of QE3 can’t stave off Eurozone Fears

November 3, 2011 jimmybob Leave a comment

The market notched another triple digit day, this time to the upside. When you see volatility like this, you can expect a big move coming very soon. News out of Europe continues to be the catalyst, irregardless of Ben Bernackes pledge today that they will do what it takes to keep the economy on pace.. ie. Quantitative Easing #3 is ready to go and in his warchest if needed.

Futures are down at the moment, indicating a 1% haircut at the open:

 US 30 Dec 11 11655.00 11768 11800.00 11614.00 -113.00 -0.96% 5:19:00
 US SPX 500 Dec 11 1220.95 1234.25 1237.95 1216.95 -13.30 -1.08% 5:18:34
 NQ 100 Dec 11 2298.80 2314.5 2324.40 2291.20 -15.70 -0.68% 5:18:34
Headlines out of Europe that France and Germany have given Greece an "ultimatum" , has world markets on edge once again. We will see how this pans out. A greek default may have devastating effects on the market short term, although long term it may be a better option then the current scenario.
What will stop other countries like Italy or Portugal to get the same deal Greece is getting? Let them default, deal with the consequences, and move on.

The Rise In Oil Was Just Luck

November 3, 2011 uranium-pinto-beans Leave a comment

 

Today's press conference with Ben Bernacke lasted some 45 minutes and provided a brief  insight into the bald headed Fed leader's brain.   The slow, drone of Ben Bernackes voice could lull any sleepless toddler right to sleep.  On the other hand his complete lack of regard for the savers in this country will keep many up each night.   His operation twist has savers, pension funds, bond holders, and banks  shouting.  He acknowledged this fact and said in not so many words that keeping this policy too long is not a good idea.  Really?  and you went to an IVY league school to learn that?

I took a few things out of this press conference that reinforced what I have already believed coming in.... Ben Bernanke is hell bent on destroying the USD.  Ben Bernanke will go to any lengths to do it, which means QE12 could be closer than you think  and Ben Bernancke has ZERO grasp on the seriously harmful affects of the Feds monetary policy.

He advised people today  to carefully consider their investment decisions, yet has pushed interest rates so low that the only way to make money is to risk it.  There are no careful decisions to make, those relying on savings income... its just gone thanks to Ben and his Fed cronies.

One of the more ludicrous statements from today was when he was talking about some reasons for the recent weakness this year.  “There has been a certain amount of bad luck.” He noted that Japan’s earthquake and tsunami hurt global trade, and a spike in oil prices hurt consumers. Now there’s the debt crisis in Europe and the potential for another downgrade in America’s credit rating should U.S. lawmakers fail to find compromise on a deficit-reduction plan later this month.   Is he out of his mind?  Oil is over $92 a barrel because you've printed over 1 trillion fresh fiat USD!  You call that bad LUCK?  How about bad planning by the FED!  Look in the mirror you bald........

Listening to this calm, mild mannered LIAR today really curled my blood.  While everyone in America is out buying fast food with their unemployment checks and food stamps, the tax payers who are busy trying to make enough money to pay their underwater mortgages, really need to listen to the Fed Chairman.  I'm not saying an Occupy the Fed, but people need to realize exactly what he's done and what he plans do to from here.  The rise in oil was not luck, and hearing the Fed Chairman say that... it makes you wonder how qualified he is for the job.

Blood, Sweat, and FEARS 11-1 Recap and Tomorrow’s trade idea PCLN

November 2, 2011 jimmybob Leave a comment

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the equity cookie jar, you get sabotaged by the Cookie Monster... Of course the cookie Monster is Greece. Greece is the worlds 32nd largest economy with almost 10 million inhabitants.

Greece
Greece causing market turmoil!

Its Prime Minister George Papandreou, was able to cause a worldwide panic sell off in the markets with his call for a referendum and confidence vote on friday. Now to those betting on a downturn, this was good news. Stocks sold off over 5% in most Europe countries, and 2%+ in US markets.

Whether the sell off continues tomorrow, is yet to be seen, as market futures are slightly higher as I write this:

US 30 Dec 11 11697.00 11682 11716.00 11618.00 15.00 0.13% 5:13:48
US SPX 500 Dec 11 1226.45 1224.5 1228.45 1216.55 1.95 0.16% 5:13:46
 NQ 100 Dec 11 2310.30 2303.5 2313.80 2294.10 6.80 0.30% 5:13:48

One of the Stocks I am watching into tomorrow are one of the high Beta Growth Stocks PCLN.

PCLN is a best of breed stock, but will succumb to continued severe price fluctuations based on market conditions. If there is a continuation of the sell-off, PCLN can see $460 in short order.

PCLN
PCLN Buy Puts 11-1

 

Have a Happy Trading Day on Wednesday folks!!!

 

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