$AAPL, $TSLA, $RAX, $PCLN are covered in this morning market video.
August 8th, 2013 Watch List
Futures are higher this morning. Impossible!! We had our 679th Hindenberg Omen trigger this week stocks should be falling! Instead they continue to defy gravity. $SPY looks poised to break back above $170. $TSLA continues to show the analysts and wanna be analysts that the move up from $30 to $138 was not a fluke. $TSLA is trading over $150 this morning and I think it sees $200+ before it comes back to reality. $GRPN? Looks like the market was giving out 25% off groupons on the stock this week. GRPN is roaring higher pre-market up over 25%.
We have started a new place in the forum to post your charts. https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/forumdisplay.php/28-Charts
The next contest at om.com will involve posting charts in the forum. More on that this weekend.
Some earnings after the bell today include:
$CALL
$MCP
$MNST
$NDLS
$RAX
I think $RAX will have the biggest move and the calls offer a great opportunity. Earlier this year it was an $80+ stock, then dropped 60% before its recent recovery. Look for a nice 10-15% gain tomorrow for the stock.
Some upgrades/downgrades today:
SINA SINA upgraded to Buy from Hold at Maxim
Maxim upgraded SINA with an $85 price target on expectations Alibaba's mobile and online-to-offline push may accelerate Weibo’s revenue growth.
MSFT Microsoft upgraded at Evercore
As previously reported, Evercore upgraded Microsoft to Overweight from Equal Weight. The firm views risk/reward as favorable given steady enterprise business trends, Windows and PC sentiment is at or near a bottom, valuation attributes little value to Windows and E&D, and upcoming catlalyts that include the September 9 investor day and increasing investor activism. Price target is $38
GRPN Groupon price target raised to $15 from $9 at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray raised its price target for Groupon following the company's June quarter results and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock
TSLA Tesla downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays
Barclays downgraded Tesla based on fair valuation and believes shares reflect the likelihood the company will become a mass market manufacturer. The analyst raised its price target to $141 from $90 and sees upside to $279 if Tesla becomes a mass market success
GMCR Green Mountain sales growth likely to slow further, says Stifel
Stifel notes that Green Mountain reported Q3 sales growth that was below the Street consensus, and lowered its FY13 sales growth guidance. The firm thinks that household K-Cup penetration has peaked and it keeps a Sell rating on the shares
NTAP NetApp expcted to report beat and raise quarter at Jefferies
Jefferies expects NetApp to report above consensus July quarter results and raise its outlook after the firm's channel checks indicated that many of the company's resellers finished the quarter ahead of plan. Jefferies raised its price target for NetApp shares to $44 from $35 but keeps a Hold rating on the stock
LOW Lowe's upgraded on improving execution at JPMorgan
JPMorgan upgraded Lowe's to Overweight from Neutral and raised its price target for shares to $52 from $44 on expectations improving execution will drive more consistent financial results
CROX Crocs downgraded at Sterne Agee
As noted earlier, Sterne Agee downgraded Crocs to Underperform from Neutral. The firm downgraded the stock based on vacancies in key executive positions, and the company's sales of products to Backjoy.com, where four former Crocs executives work. Target $10
Trade ideas I am looking at today:
$AAPL $470 calls $.40
$TLT $106.50 puts $.32
$RAX $52.50 calls $.45
$VXX $14.50 puts $.15
Have a wonderful trading session. Jimmybob will be around sparingly for the next 2 weeks. If you have any problems or issues send me a private message in the chat room or email me personally at upbstock@gmail.com The optionmillionaires email address will be monitored as well. Thank you!
August 7th, 2013 Watch List
The week has started off going the wrong direction, as Mondays slight loss was followed by a decent sell-off on Tuesday. Better then expected trade deficit numbers had folks thinking taper again, and that had Gold selling off along with equities. At some point we will rally, maybe today is our day? We did lose $170 on the SPY, so will need to regain that key area. Earnings by RL were decent on the revenue end but outlook looked a little weak and share are getting punished pe-market- Z and FSLR reported after hours yesterday, but are down pre-market as well.
FOSL had it’s price target raised but rating downgraded, which doesn’t matter to me. We have GMCR & TSLA earnings after the close, then RAX and PCLN Thursday. Once again folks, I will be very limited over the next few days, then extremely limited over he following two weeks. UPB will be handling most of the watchlist, and you shouldn’t see anything different besides my absence in the chatroom and on the Week Ahead Webinar.
Here are two post from the blog from last night:
https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/optionmillionaires-private-twitter-access/
https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/ditto-trade-is-coming-sept-3rd/
And a nice article on TSLA by Chris D : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/tesla-sentiment-check-public-too-optimistic-on-earnings/
Here are some of the analyst changes for today:
MGM MGM Resorts Cotai project should expand multiple, says Susquehanna |
Susquehanna believes an appreciation of MGM's Coatai project will lead to multiple expansion and drive shares higher. The firm also sees a strong 2014 convention calendar. Shares are Positive rated and price target raised to $20 from $18 :t |
PCLN priceline.com International bookings remain strong, says Morgan Stanley |
Morgan Stanley believes priceline.com's international bookings remain strong and that it can beat the high end of its international bookings guidance of up 40% year-over-year. The firm's Q2 operating income estimate is $945 |
FB Facebook price target raised to $45 from $37 at Morgan Stanley |
Morgan Stanley believes Facebook's expected launch of video ad units will boost total revenue and earnings by 10-15% within 1-2 years. Shares are Overweight rated |
YUM Yum! Brands upgraded at BofA/Merrill |
As previously reported, BofA/Merrill upgraded Yum! Brands (YUM) to Neutral from Underperform. The firm upgraded shares based on valuation and increased its price target to $79 from $60 based on shift to 2014 estimates |
FSLR First Solar earnings miss due to timing issue, says Citigroup |
Citigroup attributes First Solar's Q2 earnings miss to a timing issue and believes the company's fundamentals remain intact. Citi thinks First Solar's deal with GE will enhance its ability to secure projects in emerging solar markets and keeps a Buy rating on the stock with a $50 price target |
Z Zillow price targtet raised to $105 from $75 at Benchmark Co. |
Benchmark Co. raised its price target for Zillow citing the company's accelerating traffic growth in Q2 and a clearer path to monetization. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock |
SAM Boston Beer price target raised to $222 from $200 at Citigroup |
Citigroup raised its price target for Boston Beer citing continued craft growth after the company's analyst meeting. However, Citi keeps a Neutral rating on shares, saying the valuation looks stretched at current levels |
Z Zillow downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Z Zillow weakness creates buying opportunity, says JMP Securities |
JMP Securities believes that Zillow continues to gain market share and is in the early innings of its growth. The firm reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock |
Will be keeping it small once again. Only sold TSLA calls and bought more FOSL $135s yesterday. Will look to play a Z bounce as well as try for GMCR flip for earnings after hours.
Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
Z | CALL | $100.00 | Aug | 3.50 | 0.40 |
GMCR | CALL | $100.00 | weekly | 0.45 | 0.40 |
Also folks, received quite a few private twitter requests this morning. It will take some time to verify and approve them all but should be complete before the morning is over.
Lets have a great day!
- JB
OptionMillionaires Private Twitter Access
Basics
What is the Private Twitter Feed? (UPDATED August 20th, 2014)
Jimmybob and UPB post their personal trades in real time on this feed (or as close to real time as possible). These are just trade ideas. These trades are not recommendations to buy or sell a stock, or any type of investment advice. We are not registered investment advisers. The Private Twitter feed is great for those that cannot access the chatroom during trading hours, as all the trades posted in the chatroom (first) will be posted on the private twitter feed.
Twitter also allows you to push notifications to your phone via text, for those that are unable to monitor their twitter feed in real-time, here is the link for instructions: https://support.twitter.com/articles/20169887-enabling-mobile-notifications
All tweets will end with -JB or -UPB, which will denote who the tweet is from.
The Private Twitter Feed is only for Diamond members and Above
Instructions
- Request to follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/OMPrivateTwitte
- Send an email to OMPrivateTwitter@gmail.com with "Private Twitter request" in the header. The body should look like the following:
Twitter Handle: (GOES HERE)
OM USERNAME:(GOES HERE)
I HAVE READ THE BELOW DISCLAIMER : (YES OR NO HERE)
*Your Request will be approved within 24 hours during the week, 48 hours on weekends. If you request has not been approved within 24 hours, feel free to send another reminder.
**Grandfathered members will be granted access to the private twitter feed as well, just follow the same instructions.
Click the Membership Page if you are not a member and would like to become one. If you are already a registered member, you can click on Membership Management to upgrade your account.
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Ditto Trade is Coming Sept 3rd
We will be starting two DittoTrade services on September 3rd. The first will be a follow account, where folks will follow my exact trades. The other will be a signal account, which will be similar but will just issue alerts. Both will be available for Diamond Members. Due to popular demand, Starting August 28th, there will also be a new membership tier to account for the DittoTrade Service. If your already a diamond member, you have nothing to worry about. Like we have done in the past, we will grandfather new services in for current members.
If you are not aware, I am getting married and will be away for my Honeymoon for most of August. I will start the DittoTrade program with $2,000 in my account on Sept 3rd, and want to give those who want to follow a chance to get their accounts set. If you want to be ready for it, you will need to create an account at https://www.dittotrade.com/ , then put in a follow request for the service you want here: https://www.dittotrade.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=246&Itemid=295 - We are not up there yet , but will be in the next few days. Last step is to send a followup email to jimmybob@optionmillionaires.com with your OM username with the title "Approve Dittotrade". I will then approve all requests. Make sure you are following my private twitter account as well https://twitter.com/JimmyatOptions . The private twitter feed is now only available to future Diamond and above members, all current members Gold and above will be grandfathered in. You will need to email optionmillionaires@gmail.com with your OM username and twitter handle before any private twitter requests will be approved.
Please be patient over the next 3 weeks if you do send in a request or email, as I will have limited email access while I am away.
Lets continue to have a great 2013!!
- JImmybob