Markets closed slightly lower on Thursday, with the S&P finishing the session down .13%. Asia markets closed higher overnight while Europe indexes are in the green as I write this. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, the Dollar and Yields ate higher while Oil and Gold are lower.
And here is my rant from yesterday if you missed it: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-afternoon-rant-october-5th-2023/
Stocks chopped around yesterday, in similar fashion to Wednesday's session, with stocks hitting lows in the morning before finding a bid and trading higher. Unlike Wednesday, stocks couldn't hold the green into the close and finished slightly in the red as yields rose. This morning, the September Jobs report came in well above expectations, showing 366k jobs added vs. 166k estimates. There was also upside revisions to the previous months. The silver lining is the unemployment rate remained steady and wages were slightly down. Futures tumbled after the data and it is hard to paint a picture of the market doing anything but fall today unless this is the capitulation moment - where buyers throw in the towel, we get a big drop, and then the buyers come back in and squeeze. That $420.18 handle from Tuesday looked like support. If that breaks, then I think $415-$416 comes in the next few days:
I closed more of my GLD puts yesterday for nearly 300%. Still think $1820 test is coming and then possibly $1800, but it has traded down for 9 straight sessions and the Jobs report was on tap, which could cause some volatility. Will look to hold the last of my puts for that possible test while using $1845 or so as a stop on a bounce.:
Still also eyeing some more JDST and/or DUST calls. Think $10+ is coming on JDST and $20+ on DUST:
LULU closed down 2.5% yesterday on no news, just like it did on Wednesday. Will not be adding anything past todays expiry and hoping for a move under $360 today if the market cooperates:
ULTA also closed down nearly 2% and under $390. Still holding some freebie puts and I may actually look for some strikes into next week for a move to $370 or so:
It seemed that WSJ article yesterday on GLP-1 impacting food producers also weighted on Causal Dining - there was a blurb in their about someone who ate a happy meal at McDonalds and was satiated. Was almost looking to add some MCD puts yesterday but I passed with today being a possible binary event with the Jobs report. I may revisit MCD if markets are under pressure this morning for some puts to play for a move to $240 or so next week:
DPZ also closed down over 2%. Need a big downside move here today for my weekly strikes and will hold my Oct 20th puts into next week pending any bounce to $372 or so:
WW tumbled over 7% yesterday on no news. It seems folks still think WW is just a weight loss program where people diet using points and have weekly meetings. That could not be further from what WW is turning into. I'll wait for the dust to settle next few sessions and look to add more strikes into 2024. The story has not changed, if anything, the piece in the WSJ saying 7% of the U.S. population, or 25 million people, will be on a GLP-1 drug by 2035 just shows how big this market will be and WW will be the 'drug dealer' of choice:
AZO received a downgrade this morning. May be the catalyst I was waiting for. May try to nibble a few far OTM puts today:
On the flip side, if markets do bounce, I am adding TWLO back on my watchlist. Maybe some $60 or so calls into next week:
Earnings season kicks off next week, I can't wait.
And here is what I am watching today: TWLO, AZO, ROKU, ULTA. DUST, GLD, TZA, ORLY, NFLX, LLY, NOW, MDB, SITE, MELI, WW, IWM, ADBE, AVGO, WIX, ALGN, SPOT, OKTA, GNRC, VKTX, LRCX, CMG, QQQ, and TEAM.
Let's have a great day!
-JB