November 22nd, 2022 Watch List

Markets closed lower to start the week, with the S&P .39% in a annoyingly choppy trade. Asia markets closed mostly higher overnight while Europe indexes are in the green this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a bounce this morning, the Dollar and Yields are lower while Oil and Gold is higher.

And this is what UPB is reading this morning:

Stockcharts seems to be down for me this morning so apologies for the lack of charts.

It was a choppy session on Monday, with stocks failing to find a push into the green and remaining rangebound for most of the day... not the best environment for option premiums. This morning futures are pointing to a bounce. Still think that 200dma on the SPY comes into play here soon outside of any crazy catalyst before the Fed in mid-december.

Quite a few retailers reported this morning including BBY, ANF, BURL, and DKS. All of them are trading higher this morning and some are trading higher despite mixed results. Not going to sit here and say the bottom is in for retails but certainly a positive sign.

BURL reported a mixed bag of results and lowered its guidance but the stock is higher this morning, likely on the FY '23 commentary where they think it will be a positive year. The premiums were nuts on the call side with wide spreads so I passed on adding anything. May look to add some calls on the open for a move into the $180s in the coming days.

DKS reported a great Q this morning and raised guidance yet the stock is barely higher in the pre-market. Think this one that can rally as well and possibly break into the $110s. May look to add some calls for that outcome this morning.

ULTA is still on watch as well. They don't report until next week but think this trades north of $460 before December 1st.

And lastly, love ROKU here for a move back near $60 by next week, if not sooner. May look to add some speculative calls today.

Here are the analyst changes of note for today:

Semtech price target lowered to $40 from $45 at Stifel
Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg lowered the firm's price target on Semtech to $40 from $45 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the company's fiscal Q2 report. He expects an in-line October quarter and for the January quarter revenue outlook to be below Street consensus given his expectations for about a two-quarter or more correction for more diversified companies, Svanberg said in an earnings preview note
Dell Technologies price target lowered to $55 from $60 at BofA
BofA analyst Wamsi Mohan lowered the firm's price target on Dell Technologies to $55 from $60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company issued fiscal Q4 revenue guidance that missed expectations due to ongoing weaker macro factors. Mohan lowered his FY23 revenue estimates and said near-term demand is likely to remain weak, but he sees scope for Dell to outgrow PC, server and storage markets by taking share

Nike price target raised to $118 from $114 at Cowen
Cowen analyst John Kernan raised the firm's price target on Nike to $118 from $114 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst said momentum in pricing outside of apparel remains evident with new innovation slated for Spring/Summer 2023 and its ability to flow goods at a much improved rate into both DTC and wholesale for Nike and Jordan Brand
Agilent price target raised to $168 from $160 at Cowen
Cowen analyst Dan Brennan raised the firm's price target on Agilent to $168 from $160 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst said they delivered another stellar quarter and notes the stock has outperformed and thus sees the premium valuation warranted given ongoing robust growth with lower cyclicality

Cowen downgrades Cognex, says estimates need to reset lower
Cowen analyst Joseph Giordano downgraded Cognex to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $50, down from $55. The Street currently models nearly 2% revenue growth in 2023 inclusive of a likely currency headwind, but Cowen's updated model is a nearly 8% decline as Cognex's key markets likely will remain challenged, Giordano tells investors in a research note. The analyst assumes the declines are led by the company's largest customer, Amazon, which he models down 25% this year and 20% next year off the nearly $180M in revenue in 2021. Giordano believes Street estimates need to reset lower. Cognex's longer-term story remains attractive, but the shares are likely to struggle to gain company-specific momentum, writes Giordano

Salesforce lowered bar 'looks achievable,' says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss said that the firm's checks point to a "mixed performance" in Q3 for Salesforce, which he notes is a "second consecutive quarter" that checks were mixed, but given that the company took Q2 earnings as an opportunity to de-risk the forward outlook by "slashing" the FY23 revenue target and guiding to an "undemanding" reported growth figure for cRPO in Q3, he thinks the "lowered bar looks achievable." Weiss has an Overweight rating and $273 price target on Salesforce shares.
Apple iPhone demand remains strong, supply could be issue, says Canaccord
Canaccord analyst T. Michael Walkley said demand for the higher priced Apple iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max remain at elevated levels, leading us to slightly lower our estimates. With Covid-19 restrictions adversely impacting the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max assembly in China, he anticipates demand will outstrip supply into the March quarter. Walkley reiterated his Buy rating and $200 price target on Apple shares

And here is what I am watching today: DKS, BURL, ULTA, ROKU, U, SPOT, TWLO, WING, CMG, and ZYME.

Let's have a great day!


JimmyBob (Scott)has been trading equities for over 15 years, a majority of which were OTC micro-cap stocks. He started trading high risk stock options over the past 7 years, and has proven winning trades in excess of 15,000%.

As one of the Co-Founders of, Scott enjoys sharing his knowledge with other investors through timely blog posts, daily watch lists in the forum, weekly webinars, and helpful advice within the chatroom.

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