- Iran War Cease-Fire Can’t Undo the Middle East’s Energy Hangover
- Oil Prices Edge Higher as Confidence in Cease-Fire Wavers
- Iran and Ukraine Make Oil Shocks Look Too Easy
- From Merchants of Death to Merchants of Confusion
- Trump Got Schooled by Iran. He’ll Never Learn
- How Iran’s Information War Machine Operates Online
- Extent of Damage to Middle East Energy Facilities Key to Economic Impact, OECD Says
- Dollar Could Rise if Cease-Fire Fails to Hold and U.S. Inflation Jumps
- Markets Have Faced a Year of Chaos and Still Done Awfully Well
- No Matter Your Opinion on Iran, War Is Depression
- Why Fed Rate-Cut Prospects Have Dimmed, With or Without a Cease-Fire
- The Fed Can Only Watch Iran’s Energy Shock — and Wait
- Fed’s Inflation Woes Preceded the War With Iran
- Wall Street Is Whiffing on Its Economic Forecasts
- US Bank Profits to Rise on Deals, but Iran War Fuels Outlook Uncertainty
- Ares Management to Buy Whitestone REIT in $1.7 Billion Deal
- This Is Why America Is Short Four Million Homes
- As Legislators Attack Single Family, Multi-Family Residences Shine
- Why the U.S. Fertility Rate Has Hit a Record Low
- CoreWeave, Meta Strike Another $21 Billion Deal for AI Computing
- Gen Z Is Using A.I., but Doesn’t Feel Great About It
- Delta’s Ace in the Hole for Surging Jet Fuel Costs: Its Own Refinery
- Disney Planning Layoffs Under New CEO Josh D’Amaro
- The Dealmaking Gamble Threatening Estée Lauder’s Turnaround
- Can Longtime Car Executive Luca De Meo Kick the House of Gucci Into Gear?
Fragile ceasefire: JD Vance will head to Pakistan for talks with Iran, while Tehran blocks the Strait of Hormuz as Israel ramps up attacks on Lebanon.
Tensions rise: The Trump administration is weighing a plan to relocate U.S. troops away from NATO countries that opposed the Iran war effort.
Blacklist fight: A federal appeals court refuses to halt the Pentagon's designation of Anthropic (ANTHRO) as a supply chain risk for now.
Data spotlight
Investors will get two major inflation reports this week, with the February PCE Price Index due today and the March Consumer Price Index tomorrow. The core versions of each index will be closely watched to assess underlying inflation trends, as the headline numbers, which include food and energy prices, tend to be more volatile.
What to expect: According to the Cleveland Federal Reserve's Inflation Nowcasting model, February's core PCE is seen rising 2.83% Y/Y, receding from 3.1% in January. Headline PCE is expected to increase 0.4% M/M vs. +0.3% in the prior month, according to consensus estimates. To note, the PCE data isn't all that fresh, as it was delayed due to the government shutdown last fall. March core CPI is estimated to rise 2.60% Y/Y, up from 2.46% in February, Inflation Nowcasting showed. Headline CPI for March is expected to rise 0.9% M/M from 0.3% in February, with the Y/Y pace rising to 3.4% from 2.4% in the prior month, according to consensus estimates.
Inflation outlook: Citi economist Veronica Clark points to several "conflicting and often unrelated factors" affecting core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — over the coming months. These include higher energy costs, slowing housing inflation, residual measurement issues from the government shutdown, falling equity prices, tariff effects on goods prices, and upward pressure on computer goods from surging AI demand. "After a few volatile months, we expect a clearer picture of slowing underlying inflation to emerge into the middle of the year, allowing Fed officials to resume rate cuts when the labor market data weakens further," Clark said. "But in the near term, market pricing for both cuts and the potential for hikes could be very sensitive to estimates of core PCE inflation."
FOMC minutes: Most Fed officials judged that progress toward the central bank's 2% inflation target could be slower than previously expected due to higher oil prices from the Iran conflict following the effects of tariffs imposed last year, according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in March. They also saw that "the risk of inflation running persistently above the Committee's objective had increased." Overall, the officials said it's too early to see how the war would affect economic growth or monetary policy. Almost all participants voted to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, with only one dissent. FOMC members did see the potential for rate cuts to resume, but likely later than some of them had originally anticipated.
Here's the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
Top 3 REITs For Reliable Income In Volatile Markets
Launching Main Street Alpha: Focusing On Long-Term Wealth Creation
I Can't Imagine Retiring On Dividends Without These Compounding Machines
Table-Pounding Fat Dividend Picks In This Fearful Market
The Stock Market Rally: Buy Or Fade It?
What else is happening...
Meta's (META) new Muse Spark model seen trailing AI leaders.
Pimco seeks to sell part of $14B debt for Oracle (ORCL) data center.
Visa (V) unveils AI agent-powered payment platform for businesses.
Morgan Stanley (MS) launches ETP tracking bitcoin performance.
Bessent calls on Congress to pass crypto bill amid regulatory gaps.
Treasury to talk private credit ratings with state insurance regulators.
Exxon (XOM) says 6% of its production shut in Q1 due to Iran war.
Valero's (VLO) Port Arthur refinery blast destroyed diesel hydrotreater.
RFK Jr. changes rules to pick CDC vaccine advisors after legal setback.
The long and winding road for GTA VI (TTWO) may finally be ending.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.7%. Hong Kong -0.5%. China -0.7%. India -1.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.8%. Frankfurt -0.8%.
Futures at 6:30,Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.2%. Crude +5% to $99.08. Gold -0.4% to $4,757.60. Bitcoin -0.1% to $71,369.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bp to 4.29%.
On The Calendar
Companies reporting today include Byrna (BYRN) and WD-40 (WDFC).