Where do we go from here?
S&P500 futures continue to form a nice wedge and the break out of it will determine the market direction into the end of the year.
In August with the market seemingly moving no where for weeks on end, I highlighted a scenario that I thought would come to fruition. A drop in September followed by a recovery and move to a new all time record high as we move toward the end of the year, ultimately seeing the $225 figure on the $SPY.
We did indeed fall in September and the market has since grinding higher off those lows, but we have yet to reclaim previous highs.
September weakness found support at previous resistance, which is now a point of strength for this market. We have to look at this line as an area where price must remain above for this move to record highs to materialize. On the top side lets look for the break out of the channel to signal a move to $225 is in the cards.
The intra-day action remains choppy, with yesterdays early mind boggling action a perfect example of that. However yesterdays late day rally off the lows, and today's continuation of that, remind us that there remains plenty of buyers on the dip and until this changes the market is setting up for a possible final push to record highs.
This has been a market that has defied the odds. Much like no one saw $AMZN at $840 a few years ago when it was $180 a share. No one envisioned the $SPY would be trading for $215 in 2016.
I think the $SPY will push over $220 and ultimately $225 before seeing a big correction into 2017.
Here are a few possible bullish and bearish set-ups: