Markets closed lower to start the week with the S&P finishing the day down .39%. Asia stocks fell overnight while Europe indexes are in the green as I write this. U.S. futures are pointing to a bounce, the Dollar and Yields are lower while Oil and Gold are higher.
And here is the last rant if you missed: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/afternoon-rant-3-30-2026/
Markets opened higher yesterday and actually held the gains until 1pm when the S&P reversed course into the red. It was a painfully slow melt. The type of melt that moves premiums just enough for positions not to gain value if you are in puts. The story remains the same, until there is some sort of resolution in the middle-east, it is hard to have any conviction for any long-term upside. And the longer this goes, the higher the odds we get to a point of no return scenario where we get runaway Yields and inflation... and a substantially lower stock Market. Would think there is still some time to change course, but time is running out.
Last night Trump said he could see ending the war with Iran without opening the Strait of Hormuz. Futures rallied after the news. But quite honestly, anything besides a hard/concrete cease fire will just provide more gaps to sell... unless the market starts pricing that in.
Until this environment changes I continue to keep things small and look for short dated/spec positions. So many names I looked at throughout the day would have been losing trades... even if one had tried to time the big selloffs in LITE, AAOI, and SNDK. The premiums in the puts are not being rewarded when the stock goes your direction. Hopefully that changes.
Outside of any headlines, NKE reports earnings after the close. Seems like every Q on NKE the past year or so looks like the bottom could be in and then NKE proves everyone wrong. Maybe this is it but I do not have the confidence or conviction to try and trade it. If I was in the gambling mood the $60 weekly strikes are .12 x .14:
$628 looks like the line in the sand on the SPY. If/when that breaks, I will add SQQQ calls:
And longer view:
And if there was a silver lining to yesterdays action, it was Yields, which fell:
KODK finally succumbed to the market and sold off yesterday, closing down 7%. Once the $9s were broken I started looking to close the last of my calls out, not that I don't think it will be trading higher down the line, just that this is the type of environment to take profits when one can so I took the last of my calls off for over 100%. Will be patient re-entering but was a great trade:
For some reason TTD and U are calling my name. Both showed relative strength yesterday and could be ready for some bounces, even if for only a few days. $24 calls look interesting on TTD and $22s on U. Will be watching again today for possible entries:
And the U:
And just like that GLW came down to its 50dma. Any other day I would have been in calls. But will be patient. If it can reclaim $132 or so I may nibble some spec calls for a bounce to $140:
SEDG has had relative strength all month - it is up 33% in March - and was solidly green on Friday. Then yesterday it decides to sell off over 8% with no new or catalyst. So frustrating, and even more frustrating if one was holding calls. Still have my eyes on ENPH, SEDG, and FSLR:
And of course RDDT and RBLX still on watch though both seem to have been left for dead.
And here is what I am watching today: U, TTD, GLW, AAOI, V, RDDT, RBLX, KODK, TSLA, ALMU, VKTX, RH, RDDT, ROKU, RBLX, SEDG, KODK, NKLR, SEDG, AAOI, DUOL, GLW, ALGN, ISRG, LMND, CF, NTR, IPI. SERV, SHOP, ANET, HTFL, ROKU, POOL. V, MA, ZM, WING, SHOP, SQQQ, MRNA, DUST, FLWS, COCO, COIN, KODK, and SQQQ.
Let's have a great day!
-JB