Markets rallied to start the week, with the S&P closing up .89%. Asia markets closed in the green overnight while Europe are in the green this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open, the Dollar and Gold are lower while Yields and Oil are higher.
Markets gapped higher at the open yesterday and were able to hold the gains in a choppy trade, despite all the negative backdrop. Futures are pointing to another green session today ahead of the Fed statement and press conference. Expectations are the Fed will now raise rates another .25%. If they do that, coupled with a dovish spin based on the recent bank failures, would think the SPY rallies back over $400. No rate hike and a dovish spin and it could be a 2-3%+ up day. A .50% hike, and the market will come under pressure. All eyes on the Fed this afternoon. Another close over that 200dma yesterday. Would be a great sign if that 50dma is reclaimed:
I sat on my hands yesterday:
I was eyeing BLK calls at the open but the spreads/liquidity on the call side made it difficult to find any decent risk/reward strike. Will be watching again today for some possible calls as I think some of these financial names tossed out with the bathwater will come back stronger:
Also still eyeing CMG calls. Have to think receding inflation and a dovish Fed will be bullish for CMG. They can keep their raised prices and see higher margins and profits. They also have no debt and tons of cash along with an active stock buyback program. $1700+ soon:
VKTX sold off at the open, breaking under $11 before finding a bid to close down 1.5%. A good sign in my opinion. Still think $12 is coming this week and possibly $13:
As mentioned on yesterdays watchlist, the tug-of-war on MASI will resolve soon. Once it does, this is $190+. Still eyeing some calls:
Think SQ is way undervalued and under-appreciated based on the recent bank failure fiascos and the rally in crypto. Think $80+ soon and may look for some further out calls:
A rough session for ROKU yesterday. It seems that 200dma is its kryptonite. Still hopeful but will not look to add anything until Friday pending any crazy catalyst:
And lastly, still have my eyes on NFLX. It reversed a big morning sell-off to close higher. That $315 breaks then $333 comes quick, especially on a rally after the Fed:
Will be interesting in the afternoon with the Fed so will likely sit on my hands, outside of scaling out of any positions, until then.
And here is what I am watching today: BLK, SQ, MASI, NFLX, CMG, MDGL, SAGE, ULTA, ICPT, AI, YOU, DKNG, EXAS, U, SMG, TWLO, TRIP, RBLX, SPOT, AYX, GILD, CDLX, SAM, IBM, SQ, ZYME, ICPT, ALGN, and GNR.
Let's have a great day!
-JB