Futures are pointing to a higher open this morning on the heels of a big week, which includes the Fed Meeting and NVDA's big developers conference. Asia markets rallied overnight while Europe indexes are in the green this morning. The US dollar and Yields are lower while Oil and Gold are higher.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-424/
Markets closed lower for the 2nd week in a row, with the S&P finishing down .02% - just barely in the red. It is the first back to back week of losses since October. A sign the top is in, or just some consolidation before the next leg? This week will go a long way in getting that answer. The Fed statement and press conference is Wednesday and has become a bit more important with the recent inflation data that came in hotter than expected. Have to think Powell stays on course with his comments and hints at cuts in the fall. The market expectations for rate cuts had dropped at the June meeting to 50%. Any surprise hawkish comments by Powell could certainly spook markets so will be something to watch.
Today also kicks off the NVDA GTC Developers Conference. NVDA has had some nice gains on previous GTC conference's with product announcements and updates, but this one seems the most hyped. NVDA has gained over $1 trillion in market cap so far this year - mind-boggling to me. So that says to me the market had NVDA wrong to the tune of $1 trillion in just 3 months? Not saying it can't keep going but I worry this maybe one of those sell-the-news events. If NVDA starts to slide I will be looking at my normal hedge plays like AVGO, LRCX, and possibly even AMD.
And lastly, earnings season is still going. Not many reporting but still have NKE, LULU, MU, FDX, and CHWY. That $512.50 area is back as resistance on the SPY with $504 being support if things get dicey:
CDLX gapped higher after earnings on Friday, and soared over 77%. I had added March $10 calls back in January and they opened up over 600%. I went and closed them out for 600% and then added some April $20 strikes. Think it was finally the turnaround quarter for CDLX and the stock will rally past $20. I use the parallels with TREE, a stock that has been pummeled the last few years down to $10 but has since rallied to $45. Not saying CDLX can go to $45 but do think it can do more in the coming months. AMEX is the next company they are partnering with and I think that only bodes well for futures revenues, ect. This morning they announced a $50 mil deal with some banks which will allow them to sell shares if they need. The stock was gapping above $15 before the filing. Think this is good news and it heads back over that today:
The GLP-1 names seem to be on the back burner the last week or two and did nothing on Friday, sans TERN, despite the great news from MDGL.
TERN reported earnings on Thursday but gave more of an update, as I discussed on Friday's watchlist. The stock rallied 7% and looks to continue the rally today. JMP securities maintained their Outperform rating this morning on TERN but lowered their PT to $15 from $17 which is still over 100% from where it closed. Once that $8 breaks again think $10+ in the coming weeks. Will continue to look for more calls:
VKTX oral data will be out any day now. If its positive, VKTX trades into the hundreds, like $130-140+:
CHWY reports earnings Wednesday after the close. It is down over 33% from its Dec rally. Think a decent report and it trades into the low $20s. May look at some spec calls today:
And like I said before, eyeing some names for some put hedges If NVDA reverses today like LRCX, AVGO, AMD.
And here is what I am watching today: CHWY, ALT, GPCR, CDLX, ADBE, LRCX, AVGO, BURL, VKTX,, NOW, SNOW, MDB, SE, EDIT, GPCR, ALT, AMD, MU, URI, Z, AXSM, WIX. DWAC, SPOT, ADBE, MASI, ALGN, STAA, W, YOU, ALT, TWLO, ISRG, STAA, BIIB, GILD, RDFN, Z, AI, TRUP, ULTA, RBLX, TGT, AVAV, EXAS, AAPL SQ, LRCX, LULU, LLY, and NVO.
Let's have a great day!
-JB