Markets closed in the red on Thursday, but well off their lows, with the S&P finishing the session off .43%. Asia markets also closed in the red overnight while Europe stocks are rallying this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a 1%+ higher open, the Dollar, Yields, and Oil are higher while Gold is lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: Friday Reads
Stocks are looking to end the week on a positive note after comments from Putin hinted at possible progress on a truce or peace agreement with Ukraine. Even if there is a cease fire agreement coming, hard to think the ramifications in regards to Oil, Commods, SWIFT, ect. will be resolved in short order. The VIX is down 3 sessions in a row and a 4th today should put the VIX under 30 for the first time since February. The S&P is down 1.6% for the week. A strong rally today could set the stage for more green into next week pending any crazy developments over the weekend:
Some names I am watching today:
TEAM for a move over $265:
AXGN had a nice analyst note out this morning:
| AxoGen assumed with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald | |
| Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ross Osborn assumed coverage of AxoGen with an Overweight rating and $21 price target. Osborn retains a favorable view of AxoGen's target market, peripheral nerve injury, with a current addressable market of $2.7B, believes its offerings could become the standard of care, and views the company's shares as significantly undervalued, the analyst tells investors in a research note | |
May look at some speculative April calls to play for a move over $10(and possibly $15) in the coming weeks:
U could be a nice lotto today. May look at some lotto calls for a move over $86:
$1510 or so possible on CMG today:
TRIP looks like it wants to break-out. May add some April strikes if it can hold $24s today:
And lastly, EBIX is a name UPB has followed for quite sometime. They just posted decent earnings but then yesterday published their IPO prospectus on the India exchange for their Ebixcash subsidiary at a valuation of $787 million. EBIX is only valued at $1.3 bil. Quick math puts the stock at $75+. Not going to chase but may add some later dated calls:
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Moody's price target lowered to $360 from $378 at Morgan Stanley | |
| Morgan Stanley analyst Toni Kaplan lowered the firm's price target on Moody's (MCO) to $360 from $378 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares after attending the company's investor day, where management provided an update on the issuance environment in Q1 and gave adjusted EPS guidance 17% below her prior estimates. Following the company's event, she is lowering her Q1 Ratings revenue estimates to down 26% at Moody's and rival S&P Global (SPGI), while her 2022 EPS estimates decline by 5% at S&P and 7% at Moody's, Kaplan tells investors | |
| DocuSign price target lowered to $95 from $220 at RBC Capital | |
| RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria lowered the firm's price target on DocuSign to $95 from $220 but keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company's Q4 results were "lackluster" with lighter than usual topline upside and a "disappointing" guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jaluria adds that while he still likes DocuSign's long-term opportunity, he warns that the stock may be sidelined until signs of improvement emerge | |
| Roblox price target lowered to $84 from $99 at BTIG | |
| BTIG analyst Clark Lampen lowered the firm's price target on Roblox to $84 from $99 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst expects the company's February bookings to be down slightly y/y due to comp and mix dynamics, but user growth remains the best measure of platform performance and long-term growth potential, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Lampen adds that he is bullish on Roblox user growth potential, estimating north of 100M users on the platform and an above 20% bookings CAGR long-term | |
| eBay price target lowered to $71 from $75 at Benchmark | |
| Benchmark analyst Daniel Kurnos lowered the firm's price target on eBay to $71 from $75 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after CEO Jamie Iannone hosted his first analyst day since his appointment to the position. There are "multiple welcome improvements planned," and the company announced "the exciting launch of the vault," but he suspects investors were "largely unmoved" by another three-year projected ramp towards 7%-9% revenue growth even if it is promised to come with sustainable double-digit EPS growth, Kurnos said. However, he suspects the outlook is "more of a baseline" and believes eBay is garnering zero value for its non-core portfolio, the analyst added | |
| XPO Logistics upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA | |
| BofA analyst Ken Hoexter upgraded XPO Logistics to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $96, up from $70, as he shifts his valuation to a sum-of-the-parts from a P/E basis given the company's proposed break-up and asset spins. After missteps last November, XPO launched 5 strategic actions at its LTL segment and has reiterated its LTL unit's focus is on enhancing growth and profitability, while the spin of its tech-enabled truck brokerage "will be one of the most exciting pure plays in the sector," Hoexter tells investors | |
| General Motors price target lowered to $75 from $80 at Benchmark | |
| Benchmark analyst Michael Ward lowered the firm's price target on General Motors to $75 from $80 as he reduced his earnings assumptions to reflect the shortage of semiconductors that is likely to limit acceleration to a more normal level of production in the near-term. However, he keeps a Buy rating on the shares as he is bullish on GM's ability to generate "record financial results," fund investment, and return cash to shareholders "at some point," Ward said | |
| Rivian Automotive price target lowered to $60 from $130 at Wedbush | |
| Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives lowered the firm's price target on Rivian Automotive to $60 from $130 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Ives, who calls the Rivian store "disappointing," tells investors in a research note that the company missed their first quarter out of the box on supply chain issues "surprises," then instituted a 20% price unit increase due to inflationary pressures which was then rescinded 48 hours later after a flurry of customer cancellations, and last night provided very soft unit guidance for 2022. While Rivian has the potential to be a major EV stalwart over the next decade, for that to happen they need to start delivery models to customers and stop the excuses, Ives contends | |
And here is what I am watching today: AXGN, BPT, CMG, PYPL, SQ, TRIP, AVAV, MDB, X, AA,, MOS, NTR, and KRNT.
Let's have a great day!
-JB