Despite the press conference and speculation on what lies ahead for the FED, rate hike/cut expectations didn't change much at all.
What do we have for 2023 rate hike wise?
The market is expecting likely the last hike in this rate hike cycle in February. With the majority seeing a .25% hike.
After that? The consensus for year end is to see rates exactly where they are now.
That would mean a rate CUT coming between FED meeting and the end of the year.
I've see quite a few talking up the 1970's correlation where we get another spike up in inflation. I'm not so sure.
For those who want to use history as a guide, look no further than 2008. A similar spike in Crude and commodities with both rolling over into the Global financial crisis.
It is different this time. Better lending standards. Loans taken out at record low rates.
I still think the market is setting up for its final leg lower in this correction with $SPY $330 incoming.
The fail at resistance again raises the odds that downside awaits, despite Santa.
And yet prices sit so close to breaking the downtrend from record highs. Until we get some separation, there is a chance we've already seen the over all market lows.
FWIW, there a chance either way, that many stocks have already bottomed. In 2008, AAPL and quite a few other names hit their lows in Fall of 2008, not March 2009 like the S&P500.