Markets ended the week in strong fashion with the S&P closing up over 2%. Asia markets finished higher overnight while Europe indexes are mostly in the green this morning. U.S. futures are higher as I write this, the Dollar is lower while Yields, Oil, and Gold are higher.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-174/
Stocks are pointing to a higher open this morning ahead of the huge CPI read on Thursday and the beginning of earnings season Friday. Stocks were able to rally on the mixed jobs report Friday, with the SPY closing pretty much at the 50dma. Would be a good sign here if stocks can claw out another gain and close above that key level. There are conferences this week... the Morgan Stanley Healthcare conference from the 9th - 12th and the ICR conference from the 9th - 11th. The ICR conference is mostly retail and dining names. Either way, expect companies to update their guidance over the next few days - which can be market moving. Should be a fun week:
I made a few trades on Friday:
I locked the last of my SQ January calls in for 100%+ and 200%+ and added some Feb strikes that will encompass earnings. Think SQ will trade into the $70s and beyond in the coming days and will use the premium build to lock some/all in before they report:
I added U calls. One of these bounces in U will be the start of a $10-15 multi-day rally. Will need to clear that $31 handle in the coming days:
I also added some speculative RBLX calls. Web 3.0/Metaverse is not going away anytime soon and think the negative sentiment around RBLX will start to wane. Think $35+ is coming soon:
And lastly, I added some ULTA calls. Think this trades north of $520 in the next week or two, though LULU guidance this morning will likely weigh on some of the retail names. Will use $4700 as a potential stop:
TNDM traded nearly flat on Friday. Still think a gap fill is coming soon:
EXAS, one of my Top 5 stocks for 2023, raised their guidance this morning and the stock is soaring... Not sure I will chase here unless it pulls to $50:
ISRG will be presenting at the Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference on the 11th. They typically issue preliminary guidance ahead of their presentation. I may look to add some spec calls today top play a guidance raise and a move over $300:
I have quite a few open positions so likely not going to be overly aggressive today.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
Exact Sciences price target raised to $44 from $35 at Craig-Hallum |
| Craig-Hallum analyst Alex Nowak raised the firm's price target on Exact Sciences to $44 from $35 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The analyst notes that the company's management has sounded increasingly better throughout 2022 and it culminated in a strong Q4 preliminary result. Cologuard generated what appears to be clean upside and Precision Oncology largely in-line with his estimate. For the full-year, Cologuard sales should end around +34% year-over-year, notable given the company's push towards adjusted profitability at the same time, Nowak adds |
| Lyft assumed with a Hold at Jefferies |
| Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni assumed coverage of Lyft with a Hold rating and $12 price target. Smaller scale and a focus on U.S. Rideshare limits cross-sell opportunities and reinvestment capabilities, especially with insurance costs approaching 30% of revenue, Colantuoni tells investors in a research note. The firm's base case assumes flat U.S. Rideshare share in 2023/2024, which results in the firm's revenue estimates falling 2%-3% below consensus, he adds. |
| DoorDash initiated with an Underperform at Jefferies |
| Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni initiated coverage of DoorDash with an Underperform rating and $37 price target. Colantuoni estimates DoorDash's market share in U.S. Restaurant Delivery increased from 18% in 2018 to 56% in 2022, but expects share gains to slow given past gains came from players that are now much smaller, the analyst tells investors in a research note. He also expects the overall category to experience more modest growth following a pull forward in adoption during the pandemic and less contribution from excess food inflation |
| DexCom sees Q revenue $2.91B, consensus $2.9B |
| For fiscal 2022, total preliminary, unaudited revenue is expected to be approximately $2.91B, an increase of 19% over 2021 on both a reported and organic basis |
Dick's Sporting price target raised to $165 from $135 at Morgan Stanley |
| Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman raised the firm's price target on Dick's Sporting to $165 from $135 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While acknowledging that there are "few examples of retailers that have successfully changed their sales/margin profiles," Gutman said Dick's "could be one of the rare few" if it retains the majority of its COVID-driven sales and margin gains. While the market is unconvinced higher sales and margins are sustainable, he argues that the market is missing the structural changes Dick's made pre-COVID that should lead to a faster-growing, more profitable business |
MongoDB price target lowered to $235 from $300 at Truist |
| Truist analyst Miller Jump lowered the firm's price target on MongoDB to $235 from $300 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Infrastructure & Security Software. With macro uncertainty running high, a more conservative posture is warranted as investors need to be selective in the group, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jump further states that the valuation of software stocks remains highly sensitive to interest rate shifts and Fed policy, though he still believes that 2023 will be more of a stock pickers market than in recent years |
And here is what I am watching today: ISRG, EXAS, MASI, UDMY, NFLX, SQ. AXSM, CME, ICE, BLK, SPOT, GNRC, VKTX, UDMY, RARE, SAGE, ALGN, IBM, CMG, and ROKU.
Let's have a great day!
-JB