Markets closed mixed to start the week, with the S&P and Dow closing in the red, while the Nasdaq rallied .63%. Asia markets closed mixed overnight while Europe indexes are in the red this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, the Dollar, Yields, and Oil are higher while Gold is lower.
And here is my rant from yesterday if you missed it: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-morning-rant-january-9th-2023/
Markets looked to rally to start the week, only to reverse strong gains to finish in the red. At 11am the SPY was trading at $393, by 4pm it was trading at $387.85 and back under its 50dma. An annoying session to say the least. This morning it looks like stocks will open lower. Would really like to see markets find footing ahead of the CPI on Thursday:
U rallied on Monday, testing the $30 handle in the morning before closing in the $29s. I was able to close some of my calls for 100% and 400% and held the last for a potential move to $35 or so in the coming days. I may actually look to add some later dated strikes to play for that $10-$15+ move that always seems to happen with U off the lows:
RBLX closed up over 6% yesterday. Think this trades into the mid-$30s in the coming days. Will look to lock some of my calls in to cover costs at 100%:
GNRC came up and tested the $107s before pulling back in the afternoon. Still holding some $110 calls and may look for some other strikes today to play for a move to $115+ in the next week or two:
EXAS, one of my top 5 stocks for 2023, rallied nearly 25% on raised guidance. The premiums were tough and it was hard to chase a name with a huge gap. Will continue to have on watch for a possible move into the mid-$60s in the coming days:
And lastly, ISRG should have their preliminary guidance out tomorrow. Will look for some possible spec calls today:
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| ZoomInfo price target lowered to $36 from $46 at Barclays |
| Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow lowered the firm's price target on ZoomInfo to $36 from $46 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Valuation levels are "still interesting" for U.S. software in 2023, but estimates remain "seemingly too high" given the macro headwinds, Lenschow tells investors in a research note. As such, he believes the first half of the year will remain difficult for software, but sees "hope" for the second half "as numbers don't seem to have significant downside |
| Illumina price target lowered to $210 from $220 at BofA |
| BofA analyst Michael Ryskin lowered the firm's price target on Illumina to $210 from $220 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after the company released preliminary Q4 revenues were roughly in-line with expectations and gave initial 2023 guidance that came in "well-below across the board." Illumina expects 2023 revenue growth of 7%-10% for $4.9B-$5.03B in sales and guided adjusted EPS to $1.25-$1.50, which Ryskin notes was more than 50% below the Street's forecast of $3.00. As surprising as the EPS guide appears, for now he is willing to give Illumina the benefit of a doubt, but he was "left with more questions than answers given the surprising '23 outlook," Ryskin added |
Aon plc upgraded to In Line at Evercore ISI on discounted valuation |
| As previously reported, Evercore ISI analyst David Motemaden upgraded Aon plc to In Line from Underperform with a price target of $330, up from $294. While his own organic revenue growth estimates remain below consensus, he is no longer below consensus in terms of his earnings forecast, Motemaden tells investors. The weak organic revenue growth is reflected in valuation, as the stock now trades at "a decent discount" to Marsh McLennan (MMC), Motemaden added |
| Carnival to continue to face high fuel costs in FY23, says Argus |
| Argus analyst John Staszak keeps his Neutral rating on Carnival and also lowers his FY23 EPS view by 20c to 30c. The company is expected to continue to face high fuel costs in FY23, with debt and interest expense also set to increase amid higher capital spending, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Staszak adds that Carnival shares are fully valued at current levels, though he would consider returning the stock to his Buy list if the cruise demand recovers sooner than he anticipates |
| Travelers upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI |
| Evercore ISI analyst David Motemaden upgraded Travelers to Outperform from In Line with a price target of $220, up from $183. He believes stronger than expected earnings power will be more apparent moving through 2023, driven by more exposure to a re-acceleration in commercial property rates and the potential for more to fall to the bottom line given less reliance on reinsurance. He also sees an improving personal auto story at Travelers in late 2023, but more in 2024, Motemaden added |
| Moody's price target raised to $311 from $284 at Raymond James |
| Raymond James analyst Patrick O'Shaughnessy raised the firm's price target on Moody's to $311 from $284 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares ahead of the Q4 results. Q4 was another notably weak quarter for bond issuance with y/y growth down double digits across every major issuance category, but O'Shaughnessy thinks this weakness was largely embedded within 2022 guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note |
| Sallie Mae price target raised to $18 from $17 at JPMorgan |
| JPMorgan analyst Richard Shane raised the firm's price target on Sallie Mae to $18 from $17 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Following a recent wave of downgrades in the consumer finance sector, the market seems "locked on already discounted risks, rather than casting a view out toward the next horizon," Shane tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes this is creating a "wave of investment opportunities" into the Q4 results. The reports "will be messy," with downside risk to earnings estimates, says the analyst. He thinks this will be most acute for the card issuers as peak seasonal and cyclical growth "collided" in Q4 |
Lululemon added to 'Analyst Current Favorites' at Raymond James |
| Raymond James added Lululemon (LULU) to its "Analyst Current Favorites" list while removing Nvidia (NVDA). The list contains the firm's current favorite stock ideas and its analysts may only have one idea from their stocks under coverage |
And here is what I am watching today: EXAS, ISRG, MASI, UDMY, NFLX, SQ. AXSM, CME, ICE, BLK, SPOT, GNRC, VKTX, UDMY, RARE, SAGE, ALGN, IBM, CMG, and ROKU
Let's have a great day!
-JB