In the first three plus months of 2016 the market has gone from pricing in the next recession, to embarking on a new bull market. Which one is it? Are we on the cusp of another strong bull market move for stocks? Or has this recent rally off the lows just one of the relief variety?
The move off the February lows has now reached the key trendline resistance. Within the next few trading sessions we will know if the market is poised for new record highs, or if the purpose of this rally was to give the trendline one last kiss before the market embarks upon pricing in another recession.
A possible double bottom W formation?
Let's look at a few other charts all pointing to key points of resistance heading into today's trading session.
and finally $SPY
The $SPY put in a nice momentum sell signal at the end of the last week. This signal has been a great point to sell the market in the past. The action this week started to confirm the loss of momentum until a few hours into Tuesday's trading session.
Was it just another 2016 rope a dope? I remain cautious on the action, but I think from today's session forward into the summer months we are looking at a new all time record high, or a break down to new lows for 2016 and the next few trading sessions will go a long way in determining which one we ultimately get.
See you in the chat room and have a great weekend.