The monthly jobs report is in, and it blew away analysts expectations.
February added 242k jobs, here is what some of the analysts were calling for:
The initial reaction was a spike higher for both the US Dollar and Stock futures.
Those gains reversed coarse, and now that the gap up has been filled the market is doing what its been doing since the lows of February. A slow methodical move higher. A grind, that in all likelyhood will end us at session highs when the closing bell rings for the week.
The key level to watch today, as it was yesterday, is the 2000 level on S&P500 futures as well as $SPY 200. Those will be the support/resistance levels going forward. On a short term basis if the action can not end today above those levels I think the market could be setting up for a reversal.
The $VXX remains one of the great short term market indicators out there. If the market pulls back this morning, but we don't see the $VXX rally, it will be another sign to buy the dip, as it has been throughout the week.
The $VXX has been a tremendous short in March thus far. The further it falls the more the market will rally.
The VIX is also heading back to more 'normal' prices. As I noted in many of my market videos at the height of the pull back in 2016, 30 on the VIX was a great buy signal for stocks.
More on the Jobs report below:
Economist - Where's the recession?
'Where's that recession?' analysts ask
Here are comments from analysts about February's jobs data. The U.S. economy gained 242,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate held at 4.9%.
Read more about the February jobs report (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-creates-242000-jobs-in-february-unemployment-49-2016-03-04).
-- "It's clear that labor market conditions are still strong. The lack of a more marked pick-up in wage growth is the only missing element. But as far as the Fed is concerned, it is already seeing a clear acceleration in core price inflation, so it can't delay raising interest rates for much longer. A June rate hike is coming." -- Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist, Capital Economics.
-- "We don't expect payrolls to keep rising at anything like this pace, but the underlying momentum here is strong." -- Ian Shepherdson, chief economist, Pantheon Macroeconomics.
(https://twitter.com/neeratanden/status/705748937651720194)
(https://twitter.com/BetseyStevenson/status/705748384758505472)
(https://twitter.com/prchovanec/status/705750632301461504)
(https://twitter.com/DianeSwonk/status/705752402142560256)
(https://twitter.com/ChadCBPP/status/705753089781977088)
-- "The numbers confirm the 'good mood' which investors have been in the past couple of weeks and stocks will probably continue to recover from their big drop which kicked off 2016. The news should be good for the U.S. dollar as investors now start looking at next week's ECB meeting." -- Chris Gaffney, president of EverBank World Markets.
-- "Although the unemployment rate held at an eight-year low of 4.9%, the current pace of job creation should continue to bring the jobless rate down in coming months if sustained, fuelling further wage inflation." -- Chris Williamson, chief economist, Markit.