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1-15-2013 Watchlist

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Futures are red but feels somewhat flat this morning with retail numbers due out this morning. Bernacke did not spill any beans or make any market moving remarks yesterday besides making it sound like QE infinity will not end in 2013. The market has closed somewhat flat the last two trading sessions, which is somewhat welcome as consolidation is needed again before we break to $150 on the SPY.

 

Tomorrow kicks off some more serious earnings with JPM before the bell and EBAY after the bell. Not playing those but both could swing the market a bit.

 

All the good news we have seen toward the end of the year on Solar has now turned sour. Another article out today on the oversupply of Solar modules in 2013: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130114PD203.html

 

Obviously puts on FSLR would be the play with the $30 probably the best bet. On watch for now but wont play today unless i see some serious volume to the downside.

 

 

Remember that Facebook has an event at 1pm  today so something to keep an eye on. Also, an article in the times today about FB taking over GOOG as top search engine if they added search..  http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/technology/fortunes-of-facebook-may-hinge-on-searches.html?ref=business&_r=0

 

DELL had a boatload of upgrades today on the B/O rumors so be a bit wary there trying to play that for now. Here are some the of the analyst changes this morning:

 

(AAPL)

Apple shares likely to rise on strong Q4 results, says Jefferies

Jefferies expects Apple to report strong Q4 results and issue guidance for Q1 slightly above consensus. The firm thinks the stock will rise on the results and reiterates a Buy rating on Apple with an $800 price target.

 

(AAPL)

Apple weakness a buying opportunity, says RW Baird

Baird believes weakness in Apple is a buying opportunity as most demand factors remain favorable. The firm is raising their Q4 iPhone forecast slightly and believes gross margins will benefit from sales of both the iPhone 4 and IPhone 4S. Shares remain Outperform rated with a $750 price target

 

Apple PT Lowered from $660 to $530 at Nomura, Neutral rated

 

 

(MLNX)

Mellanox upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

UBS upgraded Mellanox (MLNX) and raised estimates above the Street due to increased conviction in InfiniBand adoption and discounted Intel (INTC) risks. Price target raised to $65 from $56.

 

 

I posted my SHLD calls in chat but was out so was unable to post via twitter or text, SHLD was one of those plays that you see going and just trust the gut. I still think she goes over $50 sometime soon as all the ANALysts talk about retail numbers when its not about that, its an asset play.

 

I really like ISRG to keep going, the chart shows plenty of room to $530 or so and I think  it will happen in short order. Will look to grab more calls this morning. I still have SODA calls and think she breaks $50 today finally. Will look to add more calls there as well.

 

Strikes I am watching:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SODA CALL $50.00 Jan 0.65 0.65
SODA CALL $52.50 Jan 0.20 0.15
ISRG CALL $540.00 JAN (WKLY) 0.55 0.40

 

 

 

I had to take care of something so was traveling yesterday and will not be back home till friday night. Will try my best to be in the chatroom... ect so you should see little or no change from my normal presence.

 

Lets have a great trading day!

 

- jimmybob

11-14-2013 Watchlist

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Hope everyone had a great weekend. We had some issues getting the week ahead together as I was supposed to handle it Sunday and had problems. Will try putting something together possibly Tuesday night. I do apologize for any troubles. I will also not be in the chatroom for the open today, Monday January 14th but will be back by 11am or so.

 

This week starts a major uptick in earnings with some big banks reporting mid-week. I will not be playing any of them but just keep them on watch as it may influence the market during the end of the week.

 

Reports out about AAPL cutting orders for components has the stock down nearly 3.7% pre-market near $500 : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323596204578240440691304344.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW

 

Wont be playing it but would figure big money would be in the loop on something like that weeks before. Can’t see how the WSJ is breaking this as new news.

 

This is the type of article that scares me in the coming weeks and months: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323596204578240440691304344.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW

 

I would bet the next black swan event will be something along the lines of a combination of the high-frequency trading programs and a margin call of epic proportions. Time will tell but putting that article in the archives for future reference.

 

I have spoken quite a bit about the China ADR’s and how my sentiment started to  turn in the fall and I became bearish. Well looks like i continue to be wrong here as BIDU, SINA and others continue to rip higher. BIDU is partnering with a company to create browsers in africa: http://allthingsd.com/20130114/baidu-builds-a-mobile-browser-for-emerging-markets-and-gets-orange-to-pre-install-it/

 

Should bode well for the stock today and may help pull the other ADR’s higher like SINA.

 

Here are some of the Analyst changes today:

 

ISRG)

Intuitive Surgical upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Lazard Capital

Lazard Capital upgraded Intuitive Surgical with a $600 price target citing the recent pullback in shares and the company's strong procedure growth.

 

Verizon downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS

UBS downgraded Verizon to reflect lower profitability due to higher subsidy's and indirect channel costs in wireless and increased costs in wireline. Price target lowered to $44 from $48

 

Abercrombie & Fitch named a Best idea for 2013 at Janney Capital

Janney Capital expects Abercrombie to benefit from positive inventory and an inflection in GMROI, resulting in improved margin performance. Shares are Buy rated.

 

I will look to add to my SINA position possibly as I think the stock continues to trend higher. Will look for 57.5s first and then the 60s if no fill at my prices.

 

ISRG had a nice upgrade today and think it will try to get back to the levels before that Citron report that sent the shares reeling. Will try for 535s and maybe 540s if no fill. The spreads are pretty wide on the options so will require patience.

 

Again folks I will not be in the chatroom until about 11am or so, apologize for any trouble and lets start the week off in style.

 

- JImmybob

1-11-13 Watchlist

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We start today with the market closing at 5 year highs yesterday. I think I have repeated this about 20 times in the last few months, but $150 on the SPY looks to be a magnet now. Will get volatile there and would expect that to happen in the next 2-3 weeks...

 

WFC had the earnings of note today to kick off the banks, which have quite a few reporting next week. WFC beat on rev and eps and is fading here pre-market.

 

Quite a few Upgrade/downgrades today. Citigroup started SODA coverage with a buy and $60tgt. Still holding calls but will not add anymore yet.  I do have SINA calls and will watch to see if the crazy china adr rally continues.

 

Here are the changes:

 

(DNDN)

Dendreon upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein

Bernstein upgraded Dendreon based on favorable urologists feedback that indicates increasing Provenge use and reduced expectations. Price target raised to $10 from $7.

 

(JCP)

J.C. Penney downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS

UBS downgraded J.C. Penney due to a deteriorating earnings outlook, fundamental pressures, and significant changed needed in its turnaround strategy. Price target lowered to $13 from $21

 

 

(SODA)

SodaStream initiated with a Buy at Citigroup

Citigroup expects SodaStream will be one of the fastest growth stories in the Beverages group over the next few years given new distribution wins and higher household penetration rates. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $60 price target.

 

 

Two Beer companies were upgraded today, may help SAM:

 

(BUD)

AB InBev recent weakness a buying opportunity, says Citigroup

Citigroup recommends using the recent weakness in shares of AB InBev as a buying opportunity. Citi believes concerns over the Department of Justice review of the Modelo deal are overdone as it expects the deal will go through.

 

(TAP)

Molson Coors initiated with a Buy at Nomura

Target $54.

 

Last friday we got lucky with GOOG, will watch LNKD, NFLX, and PCLN for lottos today.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration
LNKD CALL $120.00 weekly
PCLN CALL $660.00 weekly
NFLX CALL $100.00 weekly

 

 

If you missed the class last night it is in the forums: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/222-Selling-Option-Premium-with-LeeMalone?p=411#post411

 

Also the week ahead will be saturday night and will be saved in the forum as well.

 

Lets have a great day and have a great weekend folks!

 

- Jimmybob