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August 15th Watchlist

Stocks start the day sharply lower with the $SPY set to open some .6% lower than it closed the day yesterday. $CSCO is down over 8% early on with 10 year resistance acting again as a wall that the stock can not break. https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/csco-earnings-video-tonights-earnings-report-will-make-or-break-the-stock-going-forward/

$NTAP is also lower down 3.8% I own the weekly calls that will likely open worthless today. That is the risk you take trading out of the money weekly options on a company reporting earnings. Had the trade gone the other way there would have been profits. Unfortunately it did not.

In spite of the markets decline, bonds continue to sell off. $TLT is at $104.70 pre-market after being close to $108 on Monday. This trade looks to continue to pay off in spite of where the market heads. Traders/investors have come to the realization that bonds are not the place to be, just as they came to the realization earlier this year that gold was not the place to be. Again we may have bounces along the way but $TLT, in my view, is in for a steep decline into the fall and winter of 2013.

Those $106 $TLT puts at $.19 from monday will be worth north of $1.40 at the open.

$AAPL broke over $500 yesterday but did not hold all those gains. Its down .5% pre-market at 496, there is a good chance we get some consolidation here before the next spike up for $AAPL.

$GOOG has been in a tailspin since early this week. After the break on Tuesday of long term support the next line of support is at 845. I still think this stock sees $1,000 before years end, but looks like its coming a little later than I expected.

$TSLA dropped 4% yesterday, at this stage the selling could continue for a few more days as support was broken early in the session yesterday. I think $TSLA will be over $200 this year, but upside might wait until the earnings gap from $132 is filled. The stock closed yesterday at $139.36

$DE the bounce trade worked for about 20 minutes yesterday as the stock came off its opening spike lower. Ultimately the stock stuck its head into the mud and didn't provide any type of move the rest of the day. This morning we have a downgrade to hold on the stock. Doesn't look like we will see that $85 figure hit before the close tomorrow again the risks that occur when buying an option only a few days from expiration.

Check the blog before the open for my morning market video. I will post the link in the chat room/forum as well.

Analysts upgrade/downgrades/remarks/notes:

$DE Deere downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus

$HPQ Hewlett-Packard price target raised to $33 from $29 at Bernstein
Bernstein believes Hewlett-Packard shares are still "very inexpensive" and FY13 earnings estimates are too low given cost cutting efforts but notes weaker revenue growth and share loss remain investor concerns. The firm rates shares an Outperform

$AAPL Apple could nearly double share buybacks, says RBC Capital
RBC Capital believes that Apple could nearly double the amount of money it spends on share buybacks while still maintaining a manageable leverage ratio. The firm thinks that such a move could increase the company's FY14 EPS by 10%+. It keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

$HD Home Depot Q2 trends solid, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley said Home Depot vendor results indicate Q2 trends are solid driven by increased repair and remodeling activity, favorable weather, and strong housing data. The firm expects internal initiatives to aid Q2 results but remains Equal Weight rated due to valuation.

$CSCO Cisco sell-off post earnings a buying opportunity, says Citigroup
Citigroup views the 10% sell-off in shares of Cisco following the company's results as overdone and a buying opportunity. Citi believes weaker emerging markets will be more than offset by health in the U.S. and improving European demand. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on the stock with a $26 price target

$FL Foot Locker remains an attractive investment opportunity, says Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse said while Q2 upside may be limited there are numerous opportunities for Foot Locker shares to move higher driven by several catalysts that include store remodel activity, international growth, increased buyback activity, and additional margin drivers. Shares are Outperform rated with a $43 price target

$NTAP NetApp Q1 results 'nearly flawless,' says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray says NetApp's Q1 results were "nearly flawless" and attributes the post-earnings share pullback to heightened expectations and weaker than expected results from other tech companies last night. Piper says NetApp continues to gain market share and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock with a $45 price targe

$TRIP TripAdvisor pullback a long-term buying opportunity, says Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank views yesterday's pullback in TripAdvisor shares as a buying opportunity for long-term investors. The firm says that while consensus estimates for Q3 may be too high, estimates for 2014 look low. Deutsche has a Buy rating on the stock

Trade ideas:

These ideas are dependent upon the 1 hr into the session buy the dip action that we've witnessed the last 5 years.

$FB $36.50 calls $.38
$TRIP $75 calls $.25
$BAC $14.50 calls $.05

Possible Earnings Trade Tonight

Tonight we have at least two earnings reports that should provide gains for properly planned option trades. I like one in particular and I think it is going to move a good 5-7%+ higher tomorrow.

I've liked this chart for quite some time, the stock has been moving higher but tonight earnings report will be what sends it.

ntap

I like this strike and price:

$NTAP $43 August calls $.65

The other earnings report comes from $CSCO. I will likely not trade this but if I had to I like the $26.50 calls.

$CSCO $26.50 calls $.48

August 14th Watchlist

Yesterday was all about $AAPL. Carl Icahn utilized twitter to announce a big purchase in the company and said there was more to come. I think this sends $AAPL over $500 before the end of the week. It may consolidate, but the trend is higher over the rest of the year.

Stocks slumped at the open yesterday but most recovered their losses as the day progressed. As zerohedge noted later in the day http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-13/its-deja-btfd-all-over-again, the BTFD action has been almost like pavlovs dog. Every day the dip gets bought yet the market remains off its highs. Are we consolidating for the next move to break through all time highs? Or is the market running out of money and ready to pull back?

Bonds took a tumble yesterday with $TLT plunging below $105 before recovering. While there may be bounces along the way $TLT puts are going to work out well moving into the end of summer and end of year. Those $106 puts @.19 on monday traded as high as $1.30 yesterday.

$GOOG looks to be suffering from $AAPL's rally as they are moving in different directions. I'd like to think GOOG will make a move over $900 into weeks end, but thus far the stock is stuck in reverse. Yesterday it broke through November 2012 support and the stock needs to get back above it in a hurry.

We have some earnings after the bell. I like NTAP for a pop afterhours. CSCO I am not so sure about. However the trend for CSCO is up, and last earnings it gapped higher, so I'd lean toward more upside post earnings.

This is monthly option expiration week, invariably stocks seem to stick to strike prices. I wrote this last year "https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/pegged-aapl-and-goog-stock-prices-manipulated-on-options-expiriation-part-i/"

DE reported earnings this morning, I may try and get in early on with some calls.

Have a great trading day.

Earnings after the bell include CSCO and NTAP

U.S. wholesale prices were unchanged in July, as prices declined for energy, didn't change for food, and rose for pharmaceuticals, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the core producer-price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1%. The report signals that inflation was contained in July. Weak international conditions have been pressuring prices.

Upgrades/downgrades/analyst notes

$WMT Wal-Mart anticipate improved sales recovery, says Susquehanna
Susquehanna previewed Wal-Mart's Q2 earnings report and believes the company remains well positioned to capitalize on the value-seeking mid- to low-end consumer while showing a modest improvement in same store sales. The firm has immediate concerns over the back-to-school season and recent trends in the low-consumer market. Shares remain Positive rated with an $85 price target.

$BBY Best Buy price target raised to $38 from $30 at Barclays
Barclays expects Best Buy to report Q2 EPS of 13c vs. consensus of 12c and continues to see upside to share driven by recent changes, the Microsoft partnership to create Windows stores within a store, cost cuts, and topline growth. Shares are Overweight rated.

$EBAY eBay July SSS growth appears to have accelerated, says JMP Securities
JMP Securities believes that Channel Advisor’s July same-store sales data suggests that eBay's growth accelerated to 20.4% last month. The firm is encouraged by the data and thinks it could indicate that the company's back to school results will improve. The firm reiterates a $65 price target and Buy rating on the stock.

$CREE Cree downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson
DA Davidson downgraded CREE to reflect slower than expected margin expansion and revenue growth following the Q2 report and disappointing guidance. Price target lowered to $65 from $79.

$SINA SINA price target raised to $97 from $67.80 at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank raised its price target for SINA following the company's better than expected Q2 results and keeps a Buy rating on the stock. Note shares were upgraded this morning at Citigroup to Buy from Sell

$SINA SINA upgraded to Buy from Sell at Citigroup
Citigroup upgraded SINA two notches to Buy from Sell and raised its price target for shares to $96 from $35. Citi believes SINA is experiencing financial momentum due to its partnership with Alibaba and Weibo earnings visibility. SINA shares closed yesterday up 3% to $82.90

Trades I am looking at for today:

DE $85 calls .65
TSLA $149 calls $.99