General Options Blog

Watchlist – Thursday July 18th 2013

Earnings season is picking up. We have significant reports out after the bell today. $CMG $GOOG $ISRG $MSFT $WYNN.

This morning we had $MS beat and rally pre market. $TZOO beat and reported better an expected revenue as well.

One strategy I talked about earlier this week was buying GOOG options today and selling them just before the close as the premiums leap ahead of the earnings report. I will let you know if I end up getting any $GOOG calls.

Here are some analyst changes today:

EBAY eBay 2014 outlook still positive, says Pacific Crest
After eBay reported slightly weaker than expected results and provided 2013 EPS guidance whose midpoint was below expectations, Pacific Crest continues to believe the company has many positive catalysts. The firm remains upbeat on the company's longer term outlook and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

CROX Goldman recommends buying Crocs ahead of the Q2 report
Goldman believes Crocs' expectations are low and Q2 will mark a return to positive comps following 6 months of declines. The firm said new product innovation and easier comps support same-store-sales acceleration and expects the company to report Q3 earnings of 69c vs. the 64c guidance mid-point. Goldman rates Crocs a Buy with a $19 price target and believes shares can have a large positive move on earnings

SNDK SanDisk price target raised to $80 from $75 at Needham
Needham raised its price target for SanDisk following the company's better than expected Q2 results and maintains a Buy rating on the stock

MA and V Visa and MasterCard well positioned to meet/beat Q2, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley said Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) are well positioned to meet or beat Q2 expectations. The firm said fundamentals remains solid and macro data indicates payment volume growth accelerated in Q2

AXP American Express valuation still rich, says RBC Capital
After American Express reported higher than expected EPS, RBC Capital increased its price target on the stock to $61 from $54. The firm thinks it will be difficult for the company to achieve its revenue growth and cost saving goals. It keeps an Underperform rating on the shares

Some trades I am looking at for today:

$AXP $75 weekly puts $.15
$GOOG $850 puts $1.50 for a flip just before the market closes
$BIDU $110 weekly calls $.40

Tonights Webinar With LeeMalone

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Todays Webinar with LeeMalone is up in the forum.

 

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/465-More-Option-Strategies-with-LeeMalone-(Basic)?p=738#post738

 

Thanks Lee, and thanks for those that attended. Make sure you register for Next Wednesdays Webinar:

Please register for Option Strategies with LeeMalone (intermediate) on Jul 24, 2013 4:30 PM EDT at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6636002725621761280

Hope to see you there!!

Finding Unusual Option Activity

I hosted a live webinar today. The main purpose was to find unusual option activity. Back in January the LNCO $35 puts saw unusual trades. A few weeks ago that trade ended up netting over $20 million. How about $LEAP? Fridays unusual trades netters over $4 million from $20k in trades. How do you find this activity? I covered some of it today live for many:

July 17th ,2013 Watch List

 

 

After 8 green sessions on the SPY, the market took a breather yesterday and some high fliers went along with it with PCLN breaking below 900 and TSLA losing 2 months of gains on some crazy volume. We have Big Bens testimony before congress today and tomorrow and here is a nice piece on how the market tends to trade when he speaks : http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/07/16/of-bernanke-testimonies-his-semi-annuals-are-best-for-sp-500/

 

We have some more earnings reports today with BAC stealing the show this morning and breaking above $14 as well as EBAY tonight. Thursday brings some real fun with GOOG, CMG, ISRG and others.

 

Here are some nice videos from UPB yesterday on TSLA and the market:

 

UPBs market recap video : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0tJRZTbQxk&feature=youtu.be&a

 

UPBs video on TSLA : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDjJMp9M9o0&feature=youtu.be&a

 

 

Quite a few analyst changes today as well:

 

TSLA Tesla price target raised to $200 from $90 at Dougherty

 

PIR Pier 1 Imports upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus
Price target is $27

 

DELL Dell no vote likely to lead to proxy fight, says Wells Fargo
If Dell shareholders do not approve the Dell/Silver Lake offer, Wells Fargo believes that a change in the company's board would favor Carl Icahn, while Icahn would sue if new board members aren't elected. The firm thinks the stock could rise significantly if the company is able to transform itself, but it predicts that many investors would abandon the company during the transition period. It keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares

 

MCD McDonald's same-store sales poised to improve, says Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo expects McDonald's same-store sales to improve sequentially in Q2, Q3, and Q4, due to its promotions, easier comps, and new products. The firm expects the company to report in-line Q2 EPS but slightly higher than expected same-store sales. Wells Fargo believes that the company has been gaining market share momentum in the U.S. in recent months and it keeps an Outperform rating on the shares

 

REGN Regeneron remains a top pick for Q2 at Goldman
Goldman said Regeneron remains a Q2 top pick based on expectations for another Eylea beat and upcoming '727 Ph III cholesterol data and Eylea DME Ph III data in 2H 2013

 

HD Home Depot price target raised to $95 from $85 at Barclays
Barclays said housing fundamentals are still supportive of growth and expects Home Depot to gain share and execute on its ROIC and margin objectives. Shares are Overweight rated

 

SBUX Starbucks shares should be bought on any weakness, says Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer believes that high expectations and a high valuation leave Starbucks poorly positioned going into its results on July 25. However, the firm thinks the stock has compelling catalysts over the longer term and it raised its target on the shares to $75 from $65. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the shares

 

YHOO Yahoo shares to rise on impressive Alibaba profits, says Stifel
After Yahoo reported higher than expected EPS but lower than expected revenue, Stifel expects the stock to increase on the "very impressive" profits generated by Alibaba Group, in which Yahoo has a 24% stake. The firm raised its price target on Yahoo to $33 from $31 to reflect Alibaba's increased profitability. Stifel keeps a Buy rating on Yahoo

 

JCP J.C. Penney's home launch adding to challenges, says Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse believes J.C. Penney's home launch may be adding to challenges rather than acting as a catalyst. The analyst said home merchandise pricing has been adjusted down by at least 30% and clearance items in other departments appears elevated. The firm expects Q2 gross margins to be lower than expected and reduced its Q2 EPS estimate to ($1.22) from (94c). Shares are Underperform rated with a $15 price target

 

BEN Franklin Resources upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
BMO Capital upgraded Franklin Resources due to valuation and benefits from a rotation to equities. Price target raised to $170 from $163

 

MDVN Medivation upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
UBS upgraded Medivation based on expectations of favorable PREVAIL study results. Price target raised to $74 from $59

 

 

Dont forget after the close today, we have LeeMalone doing a webinar: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/option-strategy-webinars-with-leemalone-july-17th-and-july-24th-at-430pm/

 

I have added quite a few positions Monday and Tuesday so will be keeping it small. Here is what I have so far, as I put it together last night. I am sure folks would like this all the time, and maybe i will try in the future, but it is very time consuming. And being that I have many positions in my account, its not as easy as just taking a screen shot..ect:

 

From PRIVATE twitter and LIVE CHATROOM

TSLA 150 @ .29 July

TZOO August $35 calls @ .35

KNDI $5 calls @ .20

BIDU 105c @ .18 Weekly

 

From my account

07/15/2013 09:30:20 Bought 15 TSLA Jul 20 2013 150.0 Call @ 0.29 = $435

07/15/2013 09:30:00 Bought 5 TSLA Jul 20 2013 150.0 Call @ 0.25 = $125

07/15/2013 09:30:04 Bought 13 TZOO Aug 17 2013 35.0 Call @ 0.35 = $455

07/15/2013 09:37:28 Bought 8 BIDU Jul 20 2013 105.0 Call @ 0.18 = $164

07/15/2013 09:30:04 Bought 10 KNDI Jul 20 2013 5.0 Call @ 0.2 = $200

Total Cost: $1379

 

Today:

From PRIVATE twitter and LIVE CHATROOM

 

RAX 42.50 call @ .35

Added GOOG 1035 call @ .40

Adeed BIDU 110s @ .62

 

From my account

 

07/16/2013 10:05:19 Bought 5 RAX Jul 20 2013 42.5 Call @ 0.35 = $175

07/16/2013 10:05:19 Bought 1 RAX Jul 20 2013 42.5 Call @ 0.35 = $35

07/16/2013 10:05:19 Bought 6 RAX Jul 20 2013 42.5 Call @ 0.35 = $210

07/16/2013 09:39:05 Bought 10 GOOG Jul 20 2013 1035.0 Call @ 0.4 = $400

07/16/2013 09:37:08 Bought 20 BIDU Jul 20 2013 110.0 Call @ 0.62 = $1240

 

Total Cost: $2060

 

Total purchases for the first two days of the week : $3439

 

Current value:

 

07/15/2013 09:30:20 Bought 15 TSLA Jul 20 2013 150.0 Call @ 0.29 now .01 = .15

07/15/2013 09:30:00 Bought 5 TSLA Jul 20 2013 150.0 Call @ 0.25 now .01 = .05

07/15/2013 09:30:04 Bought 13 TZOO Aug 17 2013 35.0 Call @ 0.35 now $1.45 = $1185

07/15/2013 09:37:28 Bought 8 BIDU Jul 20 2013 105.0 Call @ 0.18 now 1.99 = $1592

07/15/2013 09:30:04 Bought 10 KNDI Jul 20 2013 5.0 Call @ 0.2 now .05 = $50

07/16/2013 10:05:19 Bought 5 RAX Jul 20 2013 42.5 Call @ 0.35 now .45 = $225

07/16/2013 10:05:19 Bought 1 RAX Jul 20 2013 42.5 Call @ 0.35now .45 = $45

07/16/2013 10:05:19 Bought 6 RAX Jul 20 2013 42.5 Call @ 0.35 now .45 = $270

07/16/2013 09:39:05 Bought 10 GOOG Jul 20 2013 1035.0 Call @ .40 now 0.25 = $250

07/16/2013 09:37:08 Bought 20 BIDU Jul 20 2013 110.0 Call @ 0.62 now .42= $840

 

 

Total value of positions: 4457.2 less cost $3439 = $1018.2 So far this week

 

 

WIll look to enter my WHR trade for earnings as well as trying to play some more upside in NFLX. I may look to lock some of my TZOO AUG 35 calls at some point today and let about half ride through earnings.

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WHR CALL $135.00 Weekly 0.33 0.33
NFLX CALL $280.00 Weekly 0.39 0.35

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB