All posts by uranium-pinto-beans

AMZN Trading at Support

With every Central Bank East of Mars and West of Venus printing fresh, free,fiat currency.... with zero interest rate policy here from now until the bitter end, every growth stock (cue in CRM theme song) should see money pouring into it. P/E 1,000? 2,000? Who needs a PE when you've got QE! Which takes me to AMZN. AMZN bounced off support today and looks ripe for a run to the low $190's.

For the risk takers out there tomorrow's $180 calls are at $.60. For the risk adverse -- the March 2nd $185 calls are going for $1.02.

HPQ Earnings Trade

Yesterday in the chat room I gave a nice earnings trade. I said I was buying the $28 HPQ puts and the $30 calls for earnings. It ended up being a profitable trade. My thought process involved HPQ's prior earnings and the fact that I think HPQ is still not on firm footing. Most people see Hewlett Packard and think Desktop computers. Guess what? Desktops are dying. How about HPQ's foray into tablet computing? Do you know what DOA stands for? I do have an HP touchpad, so it wasn't necessarily DOA, but they killed it right away... all things considered it was an awful move for the company. Which brings me to my HPQ earnings play.

I bought both puts and calls as I saw a 5% or better move coming. The stock ended up sliding more than 6.5%.

I bought 7 of each of the $28 puts and $30 calls.

Total cost for both HPQ calls and puts $532 + commission $550

Sold at $770 + commis $755 for $205 profit

HPQ $28 puts from $.36 to $1.10
HPQ $30 calls from $.40 to $.00

If HPQ had traded steady I would have lost out on both trades for an almost total loss. There is risk with options, but if you know what your doing, that risk can be limited. I had a strong feeling a big move was coming in either direction and I profited from that big move.

QE To Infinity and Beyond

infinity
infinity

When in doubt, do what failed in the past, and if it fails again keep doing it forever.... or until we get a collapse the likes the world has never seen before. Yes I am talking about Quantitative Easing a term that my 5 year old daughter is familiar with. Even she knows the bank in Monopoly doesn't have an unlimited amount of money in it. You can imagine how fun it was to play that game with Ben Bernacke when he was growing up. When it was time to put the game away I can picture all the fake bills dangling out of the bottom of box. Now he's doing it with the Worlds Reserve Currency, and the go Directly To Jail space has been replaced with Global Economic Catastrophe. When he hits that space I doubt a $200 fine will set him free.

What's become obvious is that the FED and almost every other Central Bank is going to print and print and print their way into growth. They are creating those Monopoly Dollars and flushing the system with liquidity. They are lending out those Monopoly Dollars to the Banks at zero percent. Here have it for free, and make sure you hike that jobless poor saps credit card to 29.99%. That should help grow the economy. While your at it raise their bank fees and charge them for everything you can, even taking a shit in your bathroom. While your busy doing that, we at the Fed intend to butt fu*K every honest saver. You know.. the ones who lived within their means, saved their money, planned for their retirement. Yes instead of rewarding those people, we will give all the free money to the banks who got us in this mess in the first place, screw the ones who are paying their taxes, saving their money, and living modestly and within their means, and let the irresponsible ones skate free. The retirees who depend on interest income... screw them. Let them find another way to make money. Force them into the broken stock market, that has and will crash 20-50%. Hard working Americans who saved their whole lives to retire are finding themselves in a very bad situation all because of Ben Bernacke.

QE to Infinite and Beyond. There is no way out other than to continue printing money. We can see how well QE gooses stock prices. Right now we are a month into QE3 (ZIRP and impending QE3 just like in August of 2010). Look how smooth the chart is.

qe
qe

BTFD when stocks fall, but they never rip too much, just enough.... hmmmmmm. A methodical rise in stock prices that has the FEDs finger prints all over it, and makes Obama look great in an election year. For the few that still have a job and a 401k, their feeling a little more wealthy. For the countless without a job.... they are poorer by the day. As the market rips, we get higher commodity prices, which trickles down to higher prices for everything from Milk, Orange Juice, Bread. That certainly isn't helping anyone let alone the poor and middle class.

The bottom line, QE is not ending. It never will. The FED has backed itself into a corner. There is no way out.

As Option Traders a great strategy during QE is to buy calls. Buy calls on every dip. The only puts you want are on the inverse ETF's. (Be aware: They do let stocks fall every so often so its not a perfect science). Take a day like today when it looked like stocks were going to fall 1-2%. Somehow we just rode higher, like on a magic carpet. Don't ask why. Just trade what you see. I see a pile of fake Monopoly Dollars getting thrown into the market on daily basis. With ZIRP, Infinite QE, and a bubble in treasuries, there is no place better than stocks and thats exactly what the FED wants. No sense fighting someone with unlimited firepower.

BTFD

btfd

BTFD is not the ticker for a new Social Media IPO. It's what you need to do in this centrally planned stock "market". While the FED states full employment and price stability are their dual mandates, I beg to differ. Their sole mandate right now is asset price re-inflation. They think that inflating another bubble will somehow bring back all those jobs that we've lost to technology and over seas. They are wrong, but it doesn't matter seeing how they are hell bent on destroying the dollar and keeping interest rates at obscenely low levels.

What does this mean? It means stocks are the place to be, after all when stocks go up everything is ok..... right? The few Americans who have a decent job meet at the water cooler, and if stocks are up they are happy. They discuss how great a job Obama is doing, because if stocks are going up he must be doing a good job. They talk about the low interest rates and how they can refinance their mortgage for 4%. Stocks are up and cheap, easy money to be had? Life is good.

What they don't realize is those on fixed income are screwed. Savers are screwed. The FED is forcing everyone into risk assets. The CEO at Blackrock thinks that everyone should be 100% exposed to stocks. How is that an investment plan? The FED is once again wrong. Everyone loved and respected Greenspan when things were going well, just like Ben Bernacke now. Much like Greenspan, Bernacke is going to look like a complete fool down the road. But who cares about "down the road". Right now stocks are going higher and every dip must be bought, hence BTFD.

With the FED and its ZIRP until 2014, there is no sense fighting gravity.

Buy the F*cking DIP.

We trade what we see. Every day an hour in we see buying and why not buy there too. This Govt manipulated market is going higher and its either going to make us money or leave us behind. This will not end well, but there is zero sense fighting the trend. Just like QE1 and QE2, QE3 is going to lift the markets to new highs and surpass all-time highs. It won't be because of a healthy economy and full employment. It will be due to the Fed inflating the final bubble. We want to be buying puts before it bursts, but that time is not now. Just BTFD!!

A Little Dab Will Do

Trading stock options provide for some amazing profit potential. In my years of trading options I've seen many option trades pass me by that would have made me a Millionaire. That's why we are all here, and that is why this site is named Option Millionaires. You can truly become a millionaire trading stock options. The gain potential is literally unlimited..... but the potential for loss is also great. RISK/REWARD.

Which brings me to my motto for out of the money stock options... "a little dab will do".

There is no need to be piling in way more than you can afford to lose. One thing is almost guaranteed with out of the money stock options.... you will lose money. It is inevitable. And if you hit a tough streak, the losses can pile up.... but all you need is one strong option trade to pull you ahead. If you make 4 $200 trades and lose on three of them, but make $1,400 on the last.... well that's why we trade option.

A little dab will do ya: