All posts by jimmybob

Weekend Update

 

Hope everyone is well and those in the path of Sandy are working on getting things back to somewhat normal. It has been a hectic 2 weeks and I still have no power. I am a routine kind of person, so it has really taking a toll on me, especially on the trading side. Hopefully I will have power come Monday, but it's not looking good right now. I know UPB usually does his Sunday night class, but he has had some issues as well.  If UPB is unable to do his class Sunday night, I will try to do something either Sunday night, or Monday. I hope you folks can understand that the lack of content on the site the last week or so is due to extenuating circumstances and not anything else.

It's nice to know one of my normal 'routines' went as planned and read my Barron's this morning.  I would have to say the theme of the entire publication was "fiscal cliff" as almost every piece started with that verbiage. I know that term has been out there for months but looks like folks are really starting to use it to explain the skittishness of the market last week. Of course you could say the sell-off last week was better then expected as last time Obama was elected the market dropped over 5% the next day.

Quite honestly this 'Fiscal Cliff' talk is not old news, so my guess is this is not the main reason for the sell-off. With the market still up 5%+ for the year, you could say folks are locking in profits at the 15% capital gains, instead of waiting for next year and the possible 20%. I also think there is quite a bit of unwinding in some of the major movers this year that are widely held like AAPL, LNKD, and PCLN. You could see it in late September as PCLN and LNKD sold off for no reason that i could tell. You have folks saying insider sales are the reason for the sell-off in LNKD, yet that has been the story since $60. I said it earlier in the year and I still stick by my $150 $SPY target by years end. Now we are precariously close to the 200DMA on the $SPY at 137.24, and the 200DMA has proved to be a vital line in the sand for the bulls.(see line in the sand and the chart below)

 

Here is what we look like right now:

A break below the 200DMA on the $SPY, and I will start to rethink my stance for the rest of the year. For now I think these dips are opportunities, and finding the right ones can mean 1000%+ gains on some calls. Stay tuned this week for more updates, and hope everyone enjoys the weekend.

- Jimmybob

11-6 Watchlist (abridged)

Again want to apologize for the lack of a watchlist last week or so due to hurricane Sandy, ect. Will try and get back on track here, but maybe another day or two. Here is what I am watching at open:

 

Stock Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
CTRP Call $22 NOV 0.40 .40 or .50
FOSL Call $95 NOV $6.15 .20 or .30
Z Call $35 NOV 1.70 0.20
LNKD Call $115 NOV 0.35 0.35
SINA Call 62.50 NOV WKLY 0.34 0.35

I like CTRP as a massively oversold stock that should see $25 in the next week or so. Will try to get 22c at .40 or bump up to .50 if no fill. FOSL has a tendency to move large after the open even on a gap down or gap up. I wouldnt be suprised to see FOSL jump at the open so may try and get some of the calls cheap for Lottos (VERY RISKY). Z sell-off on lower guidance is an over reaction IMHO so will try to get some $35. I like LNKD and SINA for continued moves higher this week and will position accordingly.

I still have my SODA but was hoping to exit some green before the end of today. Stock is volatile so you never know, but looks like I will hold through earnings. Do not try that at home!

Hope everyone is doing well and lets have a great day.. and ohh yeah - GO OUT AND VOTE!

- Jimmybob

11-5 UPDATE

 

Just wanted to apologize for my absence the last week as the hurricane has effected my ability to trade, post trades, and follow up on the site. I had power saturday, and it went out 24 hours later. Generators tend to be a problem as gas lines are still long.

Hoping this is solved in short order and hope you can be understanding. I have been in the chatroom but being on an Ipad can be difficult to answer all questions. Hopefully will be back in full force in the next day or so and will update everyone when I am.

Thanks everybody!

11-1 Watchlist/UPDATE

 

Hope everyone is doing well, it's ben a very interesting past few days. I live on Long Island and I am still out of power. I know there are other site admins in effected areas from the hurricane so please apologize if there have been slow responses to emails and questions. I will try to be in chat throughout today and tomorrow and hope to be back in full force once i get power back. My prayers are with everyone in the effected areas.

As far as the market, I think we ramp higher next few weeks as disasters like these tend to be good for growth in the economy and historically markets move higher after disasters like these.

Today I am watching: FIRE calls/ LNKD calls/ WYNN callls/ and PCLN puts(depending the strike). May actually do a straddle on PCLN and will post in chat and via twitter.

Lets have a great day!!!

 

- jimmybob

 

10-26 Watchlist

Today marks the end to a very volatile week as worries about earnings started to weigh on sentiment. Last night we had AMZN and AAPL report earnings that missed estimates, but folks seem to be shaking it off as both stocks are green, even when the futures were down .80%. GDP came in at 2%, folks were expecting a 1.7% so the futures are now almost flat. What a market... well not really a market anymore.

EXPE beat expectation and raised outlook, and said Europe was actually better then expected for them. PCLN concerns last Q were from europe so this is very good news. I already have $590 calls on PCLN I bought yesterday at .60. This is what happened last Q in july when EXPE beat and took PCLN with here : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/stock-options-gone-wild/ . If this happens again it will be like lightening striking twice. Not saying it does, but if you risk $$ on the calls, sprinkle and dabble. Last Q i was able to get some 670 calls @ .10, but PCLN didnt gap up 4.6% like it is now. Its quite possible PCLN goes over 600, so if your in a risky move, the 600/605 calls maybe the best lotto ticket.

Amazons report is worse then last Q but seems to be doing the same down then up act. I am going to try for some 235/240 weekly calls at the open and hope for dejavu there as well. Very risky.

Still very high on SODA as over 5000 calls were purchased yesterday. Still like CALL as well. SINA was a disaster this week, but maybe we spike today? Here are the strikes i am watching:

 

Stock Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WYNN Call $125 OCT 0.06 0.05
WYNN Call $130 NOV 0.48 0.50
PCLN Call $605 OCT 1/8 0.30
PCLN Call $600 OCT 0.25 0.40
AMZN Call $235 OCT $7 0.50
AMZN Call $240 OCT 5 0.25

PLEASE REMEMBER 5 of those 6 positions EXPIRE TODAY - VERY RISKY - PAPER TRADE- DO NOT FOLLOW MY TRADES YOU WILL LOSE MONEY!

I will try $235 on AMZN and 600 on PCLN first and adjust accordingly if the prices mov away from me. Like WYNN here and will add to my NOV $130s. If the market ramps today, we may get a squeeze so WYNN may move another 4%, $125 lotts maybe in play.

That is all for now. Lets have a great end to the week!!

 

- jimmybob