Futures are pointing to a lower open to start the week, with the S&P set to open .50% lower as I write this. Asia markets closed mixed overnight while Europe indexes are flat this morning. The US dollar is higher while Yields, Oil, and Gold are all lower.
Here is my rant from Friday if you missed:
And this is what UPB is reading this morning:
Markets closed up for the 4th week in a row, rallying despite every possible headwind one could carve up. This week earnings slow down, we get retail sales data. and the Fed minutes from their last meeting. Most of the earnings come from the retail sector so will be interesting to see what names like TGT and HD have to say... especially TGT, which had lowered its guidance. Would not be surprised to see a consolidation week, as markets digest the recent rally. Would just want to see that $420 hold on the SPY and could be constructive heading into next week.
Here is the markets performance so far this year:
And here is the SPY chart as it nears it 200dma at $429:
And here are the implied moves for earnings this week:
YOU reported earnings this morning while raising guidance. The stock is gapping higher this morning and would not be surprised to see this over $35 before the week is out. Premiums were tough on Friday so I sat on my hands. May look to add some calls at the open depending on what the spreads look like:
It was another great session for TRIP on Friday, with the stock closing up another 4% and over its 200dma. I was able to close some more of my $26 calls for over 400%. They expire Friday so will be quick to close the last out. Think TRIP can break over $28 and possibly $29 and will use the $26 handle as an area I would close the last out and revisit:
Take a look at the weekly on TRIP as well:
MITK looks poised for new highs after consolidating for the past 2 weeks. Think this trades north of $15 soon:
AMLX closed lower on Friday after its earnings - think mostly on fears they will announce an offering. Their AdCom date is September 7th so hoping we can get a rally before then and some premium build on the calls. Do not plan to hold my entire position into a binary event:
ULTA reports earnings next week and think the stock could be headed to new highs into the mid-$400s. TGT will report earrings on the 17th and could shed some light on how the ULTA stores within a store are doing. May look to add some calls today for premium build into next week:
ICPT is a name I have watched and traded for years. Think it is only a matter of time before the MEME crowd picks up on this. Huge short interest with possible positive catalyst on the horizon. Not to mention it trades 1x's revenues and at cash value. Gotoptions added some calls last week and I may follow suit:
U announced this morning that they were rejecting the merger proposal with APP. The stock is lower in the pre-market but could be a nice bounce play. Will be watching:
Also watching SAGE, OLED, EDIT, and SPOT.
And here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Beam Global price target lowered to $40 from $50 at Maxim |
| Maxim analyst Tate Sullivan lowered the firm's price target on Beam Global to $40 from $50 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q2 results. The company's backlog grew to a record of over $10M and revenue increased 76%, but his price target cut reflects a longer potential timeline for larger orders, including a sponsorship agreement, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Sullivan adds however that he remains positive on the stock given its 10-times enterprise value to expected revenue multiple |
| Gilead price target raised to $74 from $71 at Piper Sandler |
| Piper Sandler analyst Do Kim raised the firm's price target on Gilead to $74 from $71 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after increasing his estimates to reflect Q2 results and the company's raised revenue and EPS guidance. He believes Gilead's commercial sales and drug development are gaining some positive momentum, but would look to become more constructive on shares with greater confidence in Tigit success and/or visibility into the regulatory path for Trodelvy in HR+/HER2- BC, Kim tells investors |
| aycom price target raised to $432 from $390 at KeyBanc |
| KeyBanc analyst Jason Celino raised the firm's price target on Paycom to $432 from $390 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Following the Q2 earnings reports of the HCM, or human capital management, software universe, the analyst is feeling "incrementally positive on HCM SaaS." Celino believes "the strong performance and commentary are driving an improvement in investor sentiment, particularly related to debates around macro," and recommended Paycom (PAYC) and Paylocity (PCTY), both of which he raised his price targets on |
| Stanley Black & Decker price target lowered to $125 from $165 at Credit Suisse |
| Credit Suisse analyst Daniel Oppenheim lowered the firm's price target on Stanley Black & Decker to $125 from $165 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst significantly lowered his 2022 and 2023 EPS estimates, along with his price target, to reflect "concern that a recovery in margins and sales will likely occur gradually over the course of 2023 with that partially offset by the company's $2B global cost reduction program." |
eHealth price target lowered to $10 from $13 at Credit Suisse |
| Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Yong lowered the firm's price target on eHealth to $10 from $13 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The analyst noted that the company said it would be re-orienting spend towards online advertising, direct mail, and email marketing, and while he feels the overall pullback in spend is "perhaps positive" it is also "perhaps needed given the need for cash." Yong reduced his revenue estimates along with his price target as eHealth "takes a prudent approach to spending given funding needs of the company. |
And here is what I am watching today: YOU, U, ULTA, ICPT, SAGE, OLED, EDIT, and SPOT.
Let's have a great day!
-JB