Markets fell on Tuesday, with the S&P closing down .72%. Asia stocks closed lower overnight while Europe indexes are mixed this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, the Dollar is in the red while Yields, Oil, and Gold are all higher.
And here is met rant from yesterday if you missed : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-afternoon-rant-april-2nd-2024/
It was a rough session on Tuesday, with stocks gapping down at the open, testing lows at 10:30am, before slowly recouping some of the losses into the close. Yields, the U.S. Dollar, and Oil all rallied again yesterday - I will call those the triple-headed monster. If that trend continues, I would put highs odds of a move back to $504.50 on the SPY in the coming week or too. I hope that is not the case, but certainly something to watch. At 12:10 pm today Fed Chair Powell speaks at Stanford and there is a slew of Fed speak today:
09:45 - Speaker: Reserve Board Gov. Michelle Bowman.
12:00 - Speaker: Chicago Fed Pres. Austan Goolsbee.
12:10 - Speaker: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
13:10 - Speaker: Reserve Board Gov. Michael Barr.
16:30 - Speaker: Reserve Board Gov. Adriana Kugler.
Hopefully comments can ease some concerns that the Fed will be turning hawkish and scaling back rate cuts expectations to 2 from 3. Certainly another thing to watch today. Outside of that is the Jobs report on Friday. The SPY breached that $518.40 area yesterday before bouncing back to close at $518.84. Will be watching that as potential support again today with $512.50 being the next area if things get dicey:
I added ACB calls yesterday. The stock has trailed CGC in performance and figured it would play catch-up over the coming days. Think a move north of $7 is coming soon:
And longer view:
As I mentioned yesterday, Florida will be putting a cannabis legalization vote on the ballot in November. Only bodes well for more gains in the space. Hopefully CGC and ACB can add to yesterday's gains today. The next test and break of $10 for CGC should be the last one in the single-digits:
As outlined in yesterday's watchlist, I added a few MDB spec puts as a hedge. I don't have any protection from downside and MDB looks primed to test $320 or so even if the market rallies. If the market finds weakness again today, I may look for more strikes:
And lastly, I added some spec SPOT calls. Only a matter of time before this is $290+... think this is the week:
Another rough day for GLP-1 names. TERN, ALT, GPCR, and VKTX all closed lower. Funny to see the headlines, '... obesity-drug optimism fades'... as if all of a sudden GLP-1 names are done. Comical in my humble opinion. Will wait for now but may look to add more strikes on VKTX in the coming days:
The DELL setup still looks great here despite the red close yesterday. Think $120+ in the next day or to and then eventually $131+:
I mentioned RILY on my rant yesterday. It is a boutique financial services company offering wealth management, investment banking, venture capital, ect. The company does over $1.4 bil in revenues but has a market cap of just over $600 mil. The stock was trading at $40 in the fall before reports the company helped a possible fraudster with a leveraged acquisition - his old fund went under and his partner was convicted of Fraud. The company failed to file audited year end financials due to an investigation into the matter. The company is riddled with holes that the typical short crowd is trying to poke at with inflammatory comments and FUD. Just reading Fintwit you can see the concerted effort to make RILY a zero with accusations that are not backed with much, if any ,evidence. Either way, they haver shorted the stock up to 76% of the float... insane. Not only that, the rates to hold the short position is insanely high.. meaning folks short are paying crazy interest to boot. Maybe the company has issues but I think it could be on the cusp of a major squeeze, especially if they release their updated filing and there are no issues. I may look at some calls as possible PURE spec play. I don't pretend to know all the minuscule details of the company, but do think there could be an opportunity here - not to mention this company has been a publicly traded company for over 17 years... that means 17 years of full transparency.... you think all of a sudden they went down there rabbit hole to the dark side hiding shady transactions? Don't be surprised if I grab some spec lotto calls today:
And here is what I am watching today: RILY, VKTX, TERN, MDB, SNOW, SPOT, EW, ISRG, CDLX, IIPR, DELL. CGC, AVGO, NOW, LRCX, GPCR, NFLX, PYP, RDDT, IWM, ADBE, and ACB.
Let's have a great day!
-JB