Markets squeezed higher on Tuesday with the S&P rallying 2.91% while the Nasdaq soared over 3.8% on hopes the War with Iran is coming to an end soon. Asia stocks closed higher overnight while Europe indexes are rallying this morning with the DAX up over 2% as I write this. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open, the Dollar, Yields, and Oil are lower while Gold is higher.
The morning and afternoon rants had recording issues, so my apologies for those who were unable to attend. I will have a backup solution today just in case I have recording issues again today - although they should be fixed.
What a wild session on Tuesday. Stocks opened in the green and were somehow holding the gains, unlike Monday's action. And then this headline came out around 12:30:
IRAN'S PRESIDENT PEZESHKIAN: WE'RE READY TO END WAR, BUT WANT GUARANTEES.
And the spike:
Stocks instantly spiked with the SPY rallying from $642 to $649 in the matter of minutes and the great correction of 2026 was over. Joking aside, yesterday was a completely different session from Monday with many stocks up over 9% and the indexes having their best day since May 12th. Are we nearing an end to the War in Iran, and can markets get back to focusing on Fundamentals as opposed to the price of Oil?
I would like to think so. Tonight POTUS will give an update on the War. The Pope also pleaded for POTUS to find an off-ramp. You have to think with Easter coming that he will do something to put an end to the War or at least have a clear timeline/outcome. $658.412 is the 200dma on the SPY. Would bode well if we can close above that today/tomorrow into the weekend.
On the flip side, you can't rule out that there will be some surprise. Some hitch thrown in by Iran or some other element and that this becomes just a relief bounce. Not to mention there are still plenty of other headwinds out there for the US Economy. Certainly a little more open to adding calls today but with tight leashes:
And Yields:
And a nice little tidbit here on how the market reacts during wars. The typically bottom in the first 10-15% of the days of duration... so unless this War in Iran goes on for another 2 months, the bottom has been put in or is near:
Wow. What a wild day. I was mentioning on audio that these next few sessions can be the ones where you see a .25 call turn into a $5+ in 48 hours. Not likely but this is the environment it can. So the HOLD becomes important.
My regret yesterday was not adding RDDT and RBLX calls with both stocks showing relative strength before the big post-noon spike. Will be eyeing both again today.
I did add ORCL lotto calls. ORCL is set to announce layoffs... some are saying upwards of 30k - they employ 162k. The stock was already green but it was on my main screen where the news hit from Iran. I figured ORCL was likely going to rally anyway so added some spec calls. Call me crazy but I can see ORCL possible rallying above $155 by tomorrow (and higher). I already took some calls off to cover costs and will take a few more off at the open and then hold the rest. $155.42 is the 50dma:
I also added TTD calls. Still shocking to see the sell-off after the CEO'S $148 million insider buy. Figure a bounce to $25+ is coming if the market finds footing. Will lock some in on the way up to cover costs:
GLW tested its 50dma on Monday and now looks poised for another breakout. Spreads and premiums make it tough so will be patient. Can see $160 again quick:
Kicking myself for not having TSLA up on the main screen when the Iran news hit. They will likely announce deliveries tomorrow. Not that the car side matters as much anymore, but could be a catalyst. May look to add some spec calls for a move north of $400 tomorrow:
RH is getting hammered this morning after rough earnings and guidance. Probably going to put on my do-not-trade list for a while.
And here is what I am watching today: RDDT, ORCL, RBLX, U, TTD, GLW, AAOI, KODK, TSLA, ALMU, VKTX, RH, RDDT, ROKU, RBLX, SEDG, KODK, NKLR, SEDG, AAOI, DUOL, GLW, ALGN, ISRG, LMND, CF, NTR, IPI. SERV, SHOP, ANET, HTFL, ROKU, POOL. V, MA, ZM, WING, SHOP, SQQQ, MRNA, DUST, FLWS, COCO, COIN, KODK, and SQQQ.
Let's have a great day!
-JB