Markets closed lower again on Thursday, with the S&P dropping .22% and in the red for the 5th session in a row. Asia markets tumbled overnight, with the Nikkei closing down nearly 3%, while Europe indexes are also in the red this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open as I write this, albeit well off the overnight lows. The US dollar, Yields, Oil, and Gold are also lower.
And here is my rant from yesterday if you missed : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-rant-april-18th-2024/
It was another red session for stocks on Thursday. This time the S&P opened lower, rallied into the green by the lunchtime hour, only to melt to lows in the afternoon, with the SPY closing under the $500 handle for the first time since February 22nd. After the close NFLX reported a monster Q, handily beating revenue and EPS estimates while also smashing Sub add estimates. If you had told me the numbers before hand I would have said the stock would open at $700 today. Instead it is down 6% or so after the company announced they will stop providing subscriber numbers in 2025. Apple used to report individual sales data in the past and then stopped - folks construed that as a net negative for a while. Meanwhile AMZN's practice has been to never disclose individual sales numbers and only cherry pick data releases like from Black Friday ect. Either way, some will look at this as a sign NFLX expects sub growth to decline. NFLX still has plenty of levers to pull so think the concern is unwarranted but will likely weigh today. NFLX chopped around yesterday and I was able to close all my puts out flat. Likely will just watch today.
Yesterday evening reports were coming out that Israel launched an attack Iran. It was getting plenty of coverage on Fintwit but not much anywhere else. This morning it seems to have been a small, focused warning attack at a facility where Iran's nuclear programs are... almost as if Israel is saying they can make it thru Iran's defensives if push came to shove. At first S&P futures tumbled down 1.7%, but have since recovered almost all the losses. I was talking about a flush today before we could bounce on yesterday's rant... looks like it happened overnight. Depending on the open, I will likely close the last of my weekly puts out and possibly eye some calls for a bounce back into the low $500s on the SPY. If the SPY can't reclaim that $504.50 area in the next session or two, still think $487 on the SPY is coming so will continue to be cautious:
And still watching the count of names under their 50dma on the S&P. It ticked up a few yesterday so only 68% of the S&P are under their 50dma. If more follow today could be another sign of a bounce just like in mid-Feb:
And lastly, despite the red session yesterday the Vix closed down. It is at 18.54 as I write this and hit 21.36 overnight. If it closes back under 17.50 today think that bodes well for next week:
and the closer view:
AVGO closed down nearly 2% yesterday. I used the morning dip to close some of my puts out for over 200% and held some into today. Depending on the open, will likely close the last out right away. Will continue to use AVGO as a hedge play for downside:
CRWD tried to muster a rally yesterday, testing $297.50 before pulling back to close at $294. Will hold my puts into next week as a hedge:
And lastly, MDB. One of these weeks it breaks $320 and looks to retest the $200s. If, for some reason, markets can't rally today I may look for more puts into next week:
DELL couldn't seem to find a bid with the rest of the market yesterday, and just when it seemed it was ready to, the market fell and so did DELL closing down 1% at $118.37 and back under that trend line. This morning UBS gave DELL a PT raise to $141 from $113. Hopefully the kick it needs to trade back into the $120s today. Not adding anything more just yet:
ACB and CGC rallied yesterday on reports of a possible Cannabis Banking Bill. One of the key hurdles for that industry is many banks will not(and some cannot) do business with Cannbis companies. Similar to how banks/credit cards used to shy away from gambling sites. Any positive development on that front will put more wind in the sales of CGC and ACB. Also after the close, STZ announced they are stepping away from CGC in regards to oversight with STZ leaders leaving the board of CGC and exchanging their shares to non-voting ones. It also helped extinguish $100 mil in debt for CGC. At first glance it looks negative but it is a net positive and does not change anything outside of the hope that one day STZ would have acquired the rest of CGC they didn't already own. Hopefully it shakes the news off along with ACB and the sector continues its rally from Thursday.
My VKXT calls expire today. Will be looking to add some more spec positions before the close. Likely June strikes to encompass NASH data due out before the 1H is over:
ISRG reported a monster beat and raise after the close yesterday. Think it trades north of $400 - will be eyeing some possible spec calls if I can find a decent risk/reward strike:
And still eyeing AVAV and CDLX.
CDLX:
And this is what I am watching today: ISRG, VKTX, GPCR, TERN, AVAV, CDLX, MDB, AVGO, SE, CAVA, IIPR, NOW, TZA, ,SPOT, EW, TERN, SNOW, LRCX, GPCR, PYPL, RDDT, IWM, and ADBE.
Let's have a great day!
-JB