Markets tumbled on Monday, with the S&P falling 1.2%, as geopolitical concerns and rising yields spooked investors. Asia stocks fell overnight despite stronger than expected China data while Europe stocks are also lower this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a slightly higher open as I write this, the Dollar, Yields, and Gold are higher while Oil is lower.
And here is my Rant from yesterday if you missed it: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-afternoon-rant-april-15th-2024/
The S&P opened higher to start the week, but completely reversed course, as Yields soared and reports of Israeli retaliation on Iran came out around the 1pm hour. It was the first back to back 1% losses since the October lows. A nice stat here on the occurrences since then:
https://x.com/FrankCappelleri/status/1779973214069821676
The SPY closed right at that $504.50 level I have been calling the line-in-the-sand for the past month. The SPY also closed under its 50dma for the first time since November. Feels like a make or break week. I think the market could shake off rising rates, but it would be hard to make a bull-case here if Israel retaliates against Iran - all that would do is add serious uncertainty. Uncertainty is the worst thing for markets. Will be cautious in the coming days and open to adding more puts if the SPY fails to hold $504.50. Not much in the way of market moving events today. though Powell will have a discussion with the Governor of the Bank of Canada at 1:15 today:
And closer view:
With markets falling after the 1pm hour, I went and added some CRWD puts as a hedge. The stock broke $300 and closed at $299.50. Of course I was a day late on my $305 puts Friday, funny how that works. CRWD is a great story and likely higher in the coming months/years but momo names tend to fall quicker on pull-backs. Call me crazy, but I could see it trade down to $270 in the coming sessions if the market remains weak:
And will also be watching the other usual suspects, MDB and AVGO, for hedge positions.
AVGO to $1250:
and MDB to $320:
And lastly, on the put side, may nibble some NFLX far out-of-the money lotto puts. I wish I added at the open yesterday as they rose almost 100% yesterday. NFLX reports after the close Thursday so the plan would be to lock most/all before the report and hope for some premium build. Like many stocks right now, NFLX is right at its 50dma. If that breaks think $580 or so comes quick:
DELL was one of the few green stocks yesterday, albeit closing barely higher. Still love this name long-term and added more May strikes yesterday. Will be patient with what I have on DELL and also will be looking for calls at some point further out if it finds pressure this week:
Another rough session for CGC, closing off 10% and for the 6th session in a row. Not going to add anything here just yet:
ACB has been a better performer as of late and looks ready to surpass CGC in stock price soon. Still love ACB and think double-digits coming:
CAVA reversed morning gains to close down 3% yesterday. This morning Wedbush kept their Outperform rating on the stock and raised their PT to $74 from $65. Will continue to hold my calls and may look for more strikes on strength:
And kind of off topic, but if you missed my Rant on MNDR last week and yesterday, a comical update(and almost want to get this in writing so if it is a fraud/scam I will have evidence)... Not here to toot my horn but I was one of the first to call out LFIN as a scam fraud and also one of the first to call out NKLA and their CEO as a scam/fraud. MDNR has the ingredients of one. Shady Website, odd leadership team, weird press release, and more. So when it first came to my attention on Friday I checked either website and right away saw a typo. I tweeted it, and sure enough they fixed it over the weekend:
https://x.com/OMillionaires/status/1779908005640769759
I emailed the company and their investor relations and have not heard one response. The stock doesn't have options yet. Once it does, hope the stock is $30-40 and I will get some puts 🙂 When I first found NKLA and LFIN both stocks soared much higher from when I knew they were 100% frauds... so MNDR could soar from here... anyway, that is my rant.
Let's have a great day! Here is what I am watching: MDB, CRWD, AVGO, NFLX, CAVA, AVAV, DELL, CDLX, CDLX, IIPR, ISRG, NOW, TZA, SPOT, EW, VKTX, TERN, SNOW, LRCX, GPCR, NFLX, PYPL, RDDT, IWM, and ADBE.
-JB